2026-09-10
1638 windows (0 with uncertain resolution, excluded from grading) · 19111 paper trades
model Brier t60 0.0464market Brier t60 0.0430lead corr 0.63lead hit 71%
Strategies this night (bootstrap 95% CI · ● = clear of zero)
| strategy | n | win | P&L $ | /trade | 95% CI ¢/trade | max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDGE12 | 868 | 51% | +123.50 | +14.2¢ | [+11.2 ; +17.5] | 8.39 |
| LEAD3 | 1458 | 53% | +116.22 | +8.0¢ | [+5.6 ; +10.3] | 7.67 |
| EDGE8 | 1296 | 49% | +116.17 | +9.0¢ | [+6.5 ; +11.4] | 6.26 |
| EDGE12_BUILT | 749 | 51% | +112.58 | +15.0¢ | [+11.8 ; +18.4] | 5.89 |
| COMBO | 1489 | 51% | +105.97 | +7.1¢ | [+4.8 ; +9.5] | 6.85 |
| EDGE8_BUILT | 1199 | 47% | +103.08 | +8.6¢ | [+6.1 ; +11.1] | 7.51 |
| EDGE4_T | 1612 | 58% | +67.96 | +4.2¢ | [+1.9 ; +6.4] | 9.67 |
| EDGE6 | 1518 | 46% | +66.20 | +4.4¢ | [+2.1 ; +6.6] | 11.29 |
| IVRV | 1339 | 65% | +60.93 | +4.6¢ | [+1.9 ; +6.9] | 13.07 |
| EDGE4 | 1616 | 47% | +41.66 | +2.6¢ | [+0.1 ; +4.8] | 25.16 |
| EDGE4_EARLY | 1549 | 47% | +36.40 | +2.3¢ | [−0.1 ; +4.7] | 24.64 |
| CTRL_FAV30 | 296 | 96% | +3.98 | +1.3¢ | [−0.8 ; +3.3] | 2.16 |
| CTRL_RND | 1470 | 51% | −8.85 | −0.6¢ | [−2.7 ; +1.3] | 19.18 |
| EDGE4_LATE | 1014 | 35% | −20.54 | −2.0¢ | [−4.3 ; +0.3] | 31.31 |
| EDGE2 | 1638 | 45% | −21.82 | −1.3¢ | [−3.6 ; +1.0] | 50.45 |
Trades simulated at the book's real ask, at most 1 trade per strategy per window, never in the last 20 seconds. Controls serve as the comparison baseline.