Research
4 articles on Polymarket's crypto Up or Down markets, each built on every window we record and graded against the official result. Studies are fixed at their data date and corrected only by dated notes; weekly notes are updated when their topic comes back.
StudyData as of Oct 21, 2026
When the order book says 70%, how often does it happen?
123,946 Polymarket crypto Up or Down windows since Aug 7, 2026: the order book's price one minute before the close, band by band, against what happened.
73.3% Up won when the book said 70–75%
GuideData as of Oct 21, 2026
What “calibrated” means — and how to read it on our pages
What calibration means, why it is not the same as being informative, and how to read our calibration tables — with 123,946 Polymarket crypto Up or Down windows.
76.4% won by 5-minute favourites priced 70–80¢
GuideData as of Oct 21, 2026
Why Up or Down prices jump in the final minute
123,946 Polymarket crypto Up or Down windows: how much of the late price jump is done one minute before the close, and how often the favourite still loses.
64.7% of 5-minute windows priced 95¢+ one minute before the close
GuideData as of Oct 21, 2026
How 5- and 15-minute crypto Up or Down markets resolve
The Chainlink 60-second TWAP rule and the price to beat, explained — with 116,674 windows since Aug 7, 2026: how far from the line they actually close.
6.4 bps median distance from the price to beat at the close (5-minute)
Also: a page per market · the nightly track record · RSS feed. Data analytics on Polymarket crypto markets · not financial advice · 18+.