Crypto Up or Down markets, measured
We grade every window of 12 Polymarket crypto Up or Down markets each night: 112,547 windows since Aug 7, 2026, the latest night being Oct 14, 2026. Each market has its own page — how it resolves, how often the price was right, and the paper results of our public rules there.
markets 12nights Aug 7, 2026 – Oct 14, 2026figures as of 2026-10-15 12:59 UTC
| market | windows graded | T−60 s favourite won | market Brier | model Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin 5m | 19,863 | 92.0% | 0.0579 | 0.0628 |
| Bitcoin 15m | 6,619 | 94.7% | 0.0384 | 0.0405 |
| Bitcoin 1h | 1,655 | 96.0% | 0.0292 | 0.0266 |
| Ethereum 5m | 19,862 | 91.6% | 0.0607 | 0.0614 |
| Ethereum 15m | 6,619 | 95.6% | 0.0324 | 0.0323 |
| Ethereum 1h | 1,655 | 96.1% | 0.0277 | 0.0249 |
| Solana 5m | 19,863 | 91.6% | 0.0606 | 0.0608 |
| Solana 15m | 6,619 | 95.1% | 0.0349 | 0.0339 |
| Solana 1h | 1,655 | 95.7% | 0.0307 | 0.0282 |
| XRP 5m | 19,863 | 91.4% | 0.0619 | 0.0621 |
| XRP 15m | 6,619 | 95.3% | 0.0339 | 0.0320 |
| XRP 1h | 1,655 | 96.1% | 0.0272 | 0.0241 |
5m, 15m, 1h = 5-minute, 15-minute and hourly markets. Brier score at T−60 s, lower is sharper; model = our Student-t model. Nights since Aug 7, 2026 — the current resolution rules: a Chainlink 60-second TWAP for 5- and 15-minute markets, the Binance 1-hour candle for hourly ones. Kalshi markets are not covered yet.
Paper results · not financial advice · 18+. Data analytics on Polymarket crypto markets.