2026-09-11
1628 windows (0 with uncertain resolution, excluded from grading) · 19441 paper trades
model Brier t60 0.0499market Brier t60 0.0529lead corr 0.64lead hit 73%
Strategies this night (bootstrap 95% CI · ● = clear of zero)
| strategy | n | win | P&L $ | /trade | 95% CI ¢/trade | max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDGE8 | 1370 | 45% | +91.68 | +6.7¢ | [+4.2 ; +9.1] | 8.31 |
| EDGE6 | 1540 | 47% | +89.38 | +5.8¢ | [+3.5 ; +8.1] | 7.40 |
| EDGE12 | 961 | 44% | +88.90 | +9.3¢ | [+6.4 ; +12.2] | 5.34 |
| EDGE4_T | 1612 | 55% | +76.20 | +4.7¢ | [+2.4 ; +7.1] | 9.39 |
| EDGE12_BUILT | 824 | 42% | +75.40 | +9.2¢ | [+5.9 ; +12.3] | 7.35 |
| COMBO | 1516 | 47% | +69.11 | +4.6¢ | [+2.3 ; +7.0] | 12.61 |
| EDGE8_BUILT | 1254 | 43% | +68.38 | +5.5¢ | [+3.0 ; +7.9] | 9.83 |
| LEAD3 | 1451 | 47% | +65.19 | +4.5¢ | [+2.2 ; +6.9] | 10.91 |
| EDGE4 | 1617 | 47% | +62.37 | +3.9¢ | [+1.6 ; +6.0] | 8.70 |
| IVRV | 1260 | 64% | +58.58 | +4.6¢ | [+2.1 ; +7.3] | 16.51 |
| EDGE4_EARLY | 1549 | 47% | +52.27 | +3.4¢ | [+1.0 ; +5.7] | 9.10 |
| EDGE2 | 1628 | 47% | +35.43 | +2.2¢ | [−0.0 ; +4.4] | 20.56 |
| EDGE4_LATE | 1086 | 30% | +4.64 | +0.4¢ | [−1.9 ; +2.8] | 20.16 |
| CTRL_FAV30 | 291 | 93% | −4.02 | −1.4¢ | [−4.0 ; +1.1] | 6.52 |
| CTRL_RND | 1482 | 49% | −32.35 | −2.2¢ | [−4.2 ; −0.3] | 33.97 |
Trades simulated at the book's real ask, at most 1 trade per strategy per window, never in the last 20 seconds. Controls serve as the comparison baseline.