2026-09-14
1636 windows (0 with uncertain resolution, excluded from grading) · 19179 paper trades
model Brier t60 0.0386market Brier t60 0.0378lead corr 0.65lead hit 76%
Strategies this night (bootstrap 95% CI · ● = clear of zero)
| strategy | n | win | P&L $ | /trade | 95% CI ¢/trade | max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDGE12 | 899 | 51% | +163.09 | +18.1¢ | [+15.3 ; +21.0] | 3.88 |
| EDGE8 | 1350 | 47% | +151.34 | +11.2¢ | [+8.7 ; +13.6] | 6.43 |
| EDGE8_BUILT | 1227 | 46% | +134.22 | +10.9¢ | [+8.3 ; +13.5] | 7.03 |
| EDGE12_BUILT | 773 | 47% | +122.55 | +15.9¢ | [+12.6 ; +19.3] | 3.98 |
| LEAD3 | 1498 | 50% | +111.96 | +7.5¢ | [+5.1 ; +9.7] | 9.33 |
| COMBO | 1533 | 47% | +102.20 | +6.7¢ | [+4.3 ; +8.9] | 7.40 |
| EDGE6 | 1519 | 46% | +100.17 | +6.6¢ | [+4.3 ; +9.1] | 9.98 |
| EDGE4_T | 1617 | 57% | +88.32 | +5.5¢ | [+3.3 ; +7.7] | 11.64 |
| IVRV | 1255 | 65% | +69.32 | +5.5¢ | [+2.9 ; +8.1] | 16.17 |
| EDGE4_EARLY | 1582 | 47% | +62.57 | +4.0¢ | [+1.6 ; +6.4] | 13.21 |
| EDGE4 | 1622 | 47% | +59.41 | +3.7¢ | [+1.5 ; +6.0] | 13.92 |
| EDGE2 | 1636 | 48% | +47.42 | +2.9¢ | [+0.7 ; +5.2] | 18.56 |
| EDGE4_LATE | 984 | 30% | +10.73 | +1.1¢ | [−1.3 ; +3.5] | 17.01 |
| CTRL_FAV30 | 249 | 94% | −0.48 | −0.2¢ | [−2.8 ; +2.1] | 3.98 |
| CTRL_RND | 1435 | 50% | −16.98 | −1.2¢ | [−3.1 ; +0.7] | 19.57 |
Trades simulated at the book's real ask, at most 1 trade per strategy per window, never in the last 20 seconds. Controls serve as the comparison baseline.