2026-09-19
1632 windows (0 with uncertain resolution, excluded from grading) · 19064 paper trades
model Brier t60 0.0512market Brier t60 0.0680lead corr 0.65lead hit 72%
Strategies this night (bootstrap 95% CI · ● = clear of zero)
| strategy | n | win | P&L $ | /trade | 95% CI ¢/trade | max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDGE12 | 958 | 49% | +154.79 | +16.2¢ | [+13.3 ; +19.2] | 3.67 |
| EDGE8 | 1308 | 48% | +140.14 | +10.7¢ | [+8.2 ; +13.2] | 7.41 |
| EDGE8_BUILT | 1223 | 48% | +134.86 | +11.0¢ | [+8.4 ; +13.7] | 5.79 |
| EDGE12_BUILT | 867 | 47% | +130.18 | +15.0¢ | [+11.9 ; +18.1] | 4.15 |
| LEAD3 | 1411 | 52% | +109.46 | +7.8¢ | [+5.2 ; +10.3] | 6.33 |
| COMBO | 1446 | 50% | +108.24 | +7.5¢ | [+4.9 ; +9.9] | 8.29 |
| EDGE6 | 1457 | 48% | +106.74 | +7.3¢ | [+4.9 ; +9.7] | 10.73 |
| EDGE4 | 1594 | 50% | +73.19 | +4.6¢ | [+2.4 ; +7.0] | 10.70 |
| EDGE4_EARLY | 1474 | 48% | +63.32 | +4.3¢ | [+1.7 ; +6.7] | 11.71 |
| EDGE4_T | 1582 | 56% | +54.14 | +3.4¢ | [+1.0 ; +5.7] | 18.28 |
| EDGE4_LATE | 1067 | 42% | +33.95 | +3.2¢ | [+1.0 ; +5.5] | 13.46 |
| IVRV | 1173 | 63% | +26.85 | +2.3¢ | [−0.4 ; +4.9] | 10.83 |
| EDGE2 | 1619 | 49% | +20.09 | +1.2¢ | [−1.1 ; +3.5] | 33.47 |
| CTRL_FAV30 | 409 | 77% | −50.00 | −12.2¢ | [−16.0 ; −8.6] | 52.23 |
| CTRL_RND | 1476 | 51% | −50.18 | −3.4¢ | [−5.6 ; −1.3] | 58.90 |
Trades simulated at the book's real ask, at most 1 trade per strategy per window, never in the last 20 seconds. Controls serve as the comparison baseline.