2026-09-21
1,632 windows graded (0 with uncertain resolution, excluded from grading) · 19,174 paper fills
model Brier t60 0.0479market Brier t60 0.0477lead corr 0.67lead hit 77%
Rules this night (bootstrap 95% CI · ● = clear of zero)
| rule | fills | win | P&L $ | / fill | 95% CI ¢ / fill | max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDGE8 | 1,335 | 44% | +97.13 | +7.3¢ | [+4.9 ; +9.7] | 6.91 |
| EDGE12 | 860 | 45% | +93.72 | +10.9¢ | [+7.7 ; +14.1] | 4.56 |
| EDGE6 | 1,533 | 46% | +90.93 | +5.9¢ | [+3.7 ; +8.3] | 10.44 |
| EDGE12_BUILT | 749 | 44% | +83.21 | +11.1¢ | [+7.8 ; +14.5] | 4.92 |
| LEAD3 | 1,500 | 47% | +71.99 | +4.8¢ | [+2.5 ; +7.2] | 14.15 |
| EDGE4_T | 1,608 | 56% | +68.00 | +4.2¢ | [+1.9 ; +6.8] | 12.61 |
| EDGE8_BUILT | 1,226 | 41% | +67.88 | +5.5¢ | [+2.9 ; +8.0] | 6.75 |
| COMBO | 1,526 | 45% | +62.18 | +4.1¢ | [+1.9 ; +6.3] | 7.64 |
| IVRV | 1,283 | 63% | +47.77 | +3.7¢ | [+1.2 ; +6.3] | 11.62 |
| EDGE4_EARLY | 1,573 | 46% | +47.74 | +3.0¢ | [+0.6 ; +5.5] | 14.48 |
| EDGE4 | 1,617 | 46% | +45.70 | +2.8¢ | [+0.5 ; +5.2] | 13.70 |
| EDGE2 | 1,632 | 48% | +37.62 | +2.3¢ | [−0.0 ; +4.7] | 14.67 |
| EDGE4_LATE | 996 | 34% | +23.83 | +2.4¢ | [−0.1 ; +4.9] | 8.82 |
| CTRL_FAV30 | 254 | 93% | −4.02 | −1.6¢ | [−4.4 ; +1.2] | 6.33 |
| CTRL_RND | 1,482 | 50% | −7.29 | −0.5¢ | [−2.4 ; +1.3] | 19.28 |
Paper fills at the book's real ask, at most one per rule per window, never in the last 20 seconds. The controls are the comparison baseline.