2026-09-23
1,632 windows graded (0 with uncertain resolution, excluded from grading) · 19,572 paper fills
model Brier t60 0.0473market Brier t60 0.0465lead corr 0.66lead hit 78%
Rules this night (bootstrap 95% CI · ● = clear of zero)
| rule | fills | win | P&L $ | / fill | 95% CI ¢ / fill | max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDGE12_BUILT | 841 | 48% | +121.20 | +14.4¢ | [+11.2 ; +17.4] | 3.87 |
| EDGE12 | 922 | 47% | +115.75 | +12.6¢ | [+9.6 ; +15.6] | 4.48 |
| EDGE8_BUILT | 1,262 | 47% | +114.82 | +9.1¢ | [+6.6 ; +11.5] | 8.04 |
| COMBO | 1,539 | 50% | +113.21 | +7.4¢ | [+5.1 ; +9.6] | 8.44 |
| EDGE6 | 1,545 | 48% | +96.15 | +6.2¢ | [+3.9 ; +8.6] | 8.12 |
| EDGE8 | 1,359 | 45% | +89.89 | +6.6¢ | [+4.4 ; +9.2] | 8.48 |
| LEAD3 | 1,530 | 49% | +86.05 | +5.6¢ | [+3.2 ; +8.0] | 11.78 |
| EDGE4 | 1,619 | 48% | +72.28 | +4.5¢ | [+2.2 ; +6.7] | 11.87 |
| EDGE4_EARLY | 1,580 | 48% | +70.02 | +4.4¢ | [+2.0 ; +6.7] | 10.92 |
| EDGE4_T | 1,607 | 54% | +21.40 | +1.3¢ | [−1.1 ; +3.7] | 22.34 |
| EDGE2 | 1,630 | 48% | +18.76 | +1.2¢ | [−1.3 ; +3.6] | 13.20 |
| IVRV | 1,374 | 60% | +16.23 | +1.2¢ | [−1.3 ; +3.7] | 13.51 |
| CTRL_RND | 1,466 | 52% | +7.09 | +0.5¢ | [−1.4 ; +2.4] | 12.63 |
| CTRL_FAV30 | 275 | 96% | +5.89 | +2.1¢ | [+0.1 ; +4.1] | 2.66 |
| EDGE4_LATE | 1,023 | 34% | +4.61 | +0.5¢ | [−2.0 ; +2.8] | 18.19 |
Paper fills at the book's real ask, at most one per rule per window, never in the last 20 seconds. The controls are the comparison baseline.
Figures consolidated 8 Nov 2026 · 08:00 UTC.