2026-09-25
1,632 windows graded (0 with uncertain resolution, excluded from grading) · 19,076 paper fills
model Brier t60 0.0461market Brier t60 0.0459lead corr 0.65lead hit 74%
Rules this night (bootstrap 95% CI · ● = clear of zero)
Swipe the table sideways for the P&L and the 95% CI →
| rule | fills | win | P&L $ | / fill | 95% CI ¢ / fill | max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDGE8 | 1,318 | 44% | +90.99 | +6.9¢ | [+4.4 ; +9.4] | 7.57 |
| EDGE12 | 871 | 41% | +76.84 | +8.8¢ | [+6.0 ; +11.9] | 4.53 |
| COMBO | 1,508 | 47% | +76.13 | +5.0¢ | [+2.9 ; +7.6] | 9.97 |
| EDGE6 | 1,484 | 46% | +74.34 | +5.0¢ | [+2.7 ; +7.4] | 9.49 |
| LEAD3 | 1,477 | 48% | +69.76 | +4.7¢ | [+2.5 ; +7.0] | 10.90 |
| EDGE8_BUILT | 1,222 | 40% | +61.31 | +5.0¢ | [+2.5 ; +7.5] | 9.53 |
| EDGE12_BUILT | 772 | 38% | +60.64 | +7.9¢ | [+4.6 ; +11.3] | 5.04 |
| IVRV | 1,313 | 61% | +34.24 | +2.6¢ | [−0.0 ; +5.2] | 16.21 |
| EDGE4_T | 1,608 | 55% | +30.90 | +1.9¢ | [−0.4 ; +4.2] | 19.61 |
| EDGE4 | 1,604 | 45% | +28.48 | +1.8¢ | [−0.5 ; +4.2] | 15.55 |
| EDGE4_EARLY | 1,556 | 45% | +26.76 | +1.7¢ | [−0.5 ; +4.1] | 14.83 |
| EDGE4_LATE | 1,007 | 31% | +16.21 | +1.6¢ | [−0.9 ; +4.1] | 20.97 |
| CTRL_RND | 1,443 | 51% | +4.06 | +0.3¢ | [−1.6 ; +2.2] | 17.14 |
| CTRL_FAV30 | 261 | 95% | +1.67 | +0.6¢ | [−1.8 ; +3.1] | 2.46 |
| EDGE2 | 1,632 | 46% | −14.08 | −0.9¢ | [−3.2 ; +1.5] | 20.56 |
Paper fills at the book's real ask, at most one per rule per window, never in the last 20 seconds. The controls are the comparison baseline.
Figures consolidated 9 Nov 2026 · 08:00 UTC.