2026-11-06
1,632 windows graded (0 with uncertain resolution, excluded from grading) · 18,292 paper fills
model Brier t60 0.0532market Brier t60 0.0524lead corr 0.70lead hit 81%
Rules this night (bootstrap 95% CI · ● = clear of zero)
| rule | fills | win | P&L $ | / fill | 95% CI ¢ / fill | max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDGE12 | 704 | 37% | +48.07 | +6.8¢ | [+3.5 ; +9.9] | 7.38 |
| EDGE12_BUILT | 639 | 34% | +32.97 | +5.2¢ | [+1.8 ; +8.7] | 8.88 |
| EDGE8 | 1,232 | 37% | +25.57 | +2.1¢ | [−0.5 ; +4.7] | 14.37 |
| EDGE8_BUILT | 1,126 | 34% | +13.67 | +1.2¢ | [−1.2 ; +3.9] | 15.64 |
| EDGE4_LATE | 1,089 | 31% | +8.62 | +0.8¢ | [−1.6 ; +3.1] | 15.07 |
| LEAD3 | 1,340 | 41% | +8.18 | +0.6¢ | [−1.9 ; +3.1] | 13.75 |
| COMBO | 1,416 | 39% | +7.87 | +0.6¢ | [−1.9 ; +2.9] | 15.77 |
| EDGE6 | 1,464 | 39% | +3.16 | +0.2¢ | [−2.3 ; +2.7] | 20.64 |
| CTRL_FAV30 | 255 | 91% | −4.54 | −1.8¢ | [−5.0 ; +0.9] | 5.12 |
| CTRL_RND | 1,454 | 49% | −16.17 | −1.1¢ | [−3.2 ; +0.9] | 24.59 |
| EDGE2 | 1,632 | 44% | −16.57 | −1.0¢ | [−3.3 ; +1.5] | 29.31 |
| EDGE4_EARLY | 1,548 | 42% | −27.63 | −1.8¢ | [−4.1 ; +0.6] | 31.72 |
| EDGE4 | 1,608 | 42% | −27.91 | −1.7¢ | [−4.1 ; +0.7] | 31.69 |
| IVRV | 1,196 | 55% | −42.75 | −3.6¢ | [−6.4 ; −0.8] | 51.85 |
| EDGE4_T | 1,589 | 49% | −63.72 | −4.0¢ | [−6.4 ; −1.6] | 68.93 |
Paper fills at the book's real ask, at most one per rule per window, never in the last 20 seconds. The controls are the comparison baseline.