2026-11-07
1,632 windows graded (0 with uncertain resolution, excluded from grading) · 19,654 paper fills
model Brier t60 0.0542market Brier t60 0.0510lead corr 0.62lead hit 58%
Rules this night (bootstrap 95% CI · ● = clear of zero)
| rule | fills | win | P&L $ | / fill | 95% CI ¢ / fill | max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEAD3 | 1,339 | 45% | +36.14 | +2.7¢ | [+0.3 ; +5.1] | 19.32 |
| EDGE4_T | 1,616 | 51% | +23.23 | +1.4¢ | [−0.9 ; +3.6] | 19.94 |
| IVRV | 1,262 | 63% | +22.84 | +1.8¢ | [−0.7 ; +4.3] | 15.76 |
| EDGE6 | 1,551 | 42% | +18.55 | +1.2¢ | [−1.1 ; +3.7] | 26.17 |
| EDGE12 | 1,006 | 37% | +14.48 | +1.4¢ | [−1.1 ; +4.2] | 13.68 |
| CTRL_RND | 1,479 | 51% | +5.48 | +0.4¢ | [−1.6 ; +2.3] | 10.98 |
| EDGE8 | 1,430 | 39% | +3.02 | +0.2¢ | [−2.1 ; +2.6] | 21.84 |
| CTRL_FAV30 | 318 | 96% | +0.80 | +0.3¢ | [−1.9 ; +2.2] | 3.53 |
| EDGE4_LATE | 1,056 | 35% | −4.86 | −0.5¢ | [−2.9 ; +2.0] | 17.46 |
| COMBO | 1,503 | 40% | −8.88 | −0.6¢ | [−2.8 ; +1.6] | 27.65 |
| EDGE12_BUILT | 921 | 33% | −9.74 | −1.1¢ | [−3.7 ; +1.7] | 19.93 |
| EDGE4_EARLY | 1,594 | 42% | −15.44 | −1.0¢ | [−3.4 ; +1.4] | 33.10 |
| EDGE8_BUILT | 1,328 | 36% | −15.54 | −1.2¢ | [−3.7 ; +1.4] | 29.45 |
| EDGE4 | 1,619 | 42% | −16.06 | −1.0¢ | [−3.2 ; +1.3] | 33.42 |
| EDGE2 | 1,632 | 44% | −16.54 | −1.0¢ | [−3.3 ; +1.3] | 27.87 |
Paper fills at the book's real ask, at most one per rule per window, never in the last 20 seconds. The controls are the comparison baseline.
Figures consolidated 8 Nov 2026 · 08:00 UTC.