2026-11-08
1,632 windows graded (0 with uncertain resolution, excluded from grading) · 19,540 paper fills
model Brier t60 0.0418market Brier t60 0.0372lead corr 0.61lead hit 54%
Rules this night (bootstrap 95% CI · ● = clear of zero)
Swipe the table sideways for the P&L and the 95% CI →
| rule | fills | win | P&L $ | / fill | 95% CI ¢ / fill | max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COMBO | 1,496 | 43% | +14.62 | +1.0¢ | [−1.2 ; +3.4] | 13.96 |
| EDGE4_LATE | 1,029 | 33% | +11.41 | +1.1¢ | [−1.2 ; +3.4] | 14.61 |
| CTRL_RND | 1,489 | 52% | +8.06 | +0.5¢ | [−1.4 ; +2.4] | 15.64 |
| LEAD3 | 1,315 | 44% | +7.48 | +0.6¢ | [−2.0 ; +3.0] | 17.64 |
| EDGE12_BUILT | 907 | 34% | +7.06 | +0.8¢ | [−1.9 ; +3.5] | 11.71 |
| EDGE12 | 1,012 | 35% | +0.93 | +0.1¢ | [−2.4 ; +2.9] | 18.54 |
| EDGE8_BUILT | 1,317 | 38% | +0.79 | +0.1¢ | [−2.3 ; +2.4] | 20.82 |
| CTRL_FAV30 | 283 | 95% | −0.65 | −0.2¢ | [−2.6 ; +1.9] | 3.53 |
| IVRV | 1,269 | 61% | −5.12 | −0.4¢ | [−2.9 ; +2.2] | 41.67 |
| EDGE8 | 1,406 | 39% | −6.68 | −0.5¢ | [−2.8 ; +1.9] | 32.55 |
| EDGE6 | 1,552 | 41% | −16.30 | −1.1¢ | [−3.3 ; +1.3] | 32.08 |
| EDGE4_T | 1,623 | 50% | −17.48 | −1.1¢ | [−3.6 ; +1.1] | 41.77 |
| EDGE4 | 1,625 | 42% | −32.34 | −2.0¢ | [−4.4 ; +0.2] | 44.17 |
| EDGE4_EARLY | 1,585 | 42% | −34.05 | −2.1¢ | [−4.5 ; +0.2] | 43.94 |
| EDGE2 | 1,632 | 43% | −46.52 | −2.9¢ | [−5.3 ; −0.5] | 65.16 |
Paper fills at the book's real ask, at most one per rule per window, never in the last 20 seconds. The controls are the comparison baseline.
Figures consolidated 8 Nov 2026 · 08:00 UTC.