2026-11-09
1,632 windows graded (0 with uncertain resolution, excluded from grading) · 18,210 paper fills
model Brier t60 0.0437market Brier t60 0.0402lead corr 0.71lead hit 82%
Rules this night (bootstrap 95% CI · ● = clear of zero)
Swipe the table sideways for the P&L and the 95% CI →
| rule | fills | win | P&L $ | / fill | 95% CI ¢ / fill | max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDGE8 | 1,226 | 36% | +22.26 | +1.8¢ | [−0.6 ; +4.6] | 31.42 |
| LEAD3 | 1,382 | 40% | +20.83 | +1.5¢ | [−1.0 ; +3.8] | 13.23 |
| COMBO | 1,444 | 39% | +18.57 | +1.3¢ | [−1.0 ; +3.8] | 35.80 |
| EDGE4_T | 1,595 | 52% | +18.02 | +1.1¢ | [−1.2 ; +3.4] | 21.64 |
| EDGE8_BUILT | 1,130 | 33% | +16.13 | +1.4¢ | [−1.2 ; +4.1] | 41.15 |
| EDGE12 | 687 | 32% | +15.03 | +2.2¢ | [−0.9 ; +5.5] | 8.93 |
| EDGE12_BUILT | 618 | 30% | +7.73 | +1.3¢ | [−2.1 ; +4.5] | 12.77 |
| IVRV | 1,149 | 59% | +3.90 | +0.3¢ | [−2.4 ; +3.0] | 14.92 |
| EDGE4_LATE | 1,023 | 26% | −1.82 | −0.2¢ | [−2.6 ; +2.2] | 11.89 |
| CTRL_FAV30 | 227 | 94% | −2.24 | −1.0¢ | [−4.0 ; +1.6] | 4.37 |
| EDGE6 | 1,491 | 37% | −2.40 | −0.2¢ | [−2.5 ; +2.3] | 35.44 |
| CTRL_RND | 1,434 | 49% | −22.34 | −1.6¢ | [−3.6 ; +0.5] | 31.93 |
| EDGE4 | 1,610 | 38% | −58.70 | −3.6¢ | [−5.9 ; −1.4] | 75.44 |
| EDGE4_EARLY | 1,562 | 38% | −61.50 | −3.9¢ | [−6.2 ; −1.6] | 78.25 |
| EDGE2 | 1,632 | 41% | −70.96 | −4.3¢ | [−6.6 ; −2.1] | 72.36 |
Paper fills at the book's real ask, at most one per rule per window, never in the last 20 seconds. The controls are the comparison baseline.
Figures consolidated 9 Nov 2026 · 08:00 UTC.