Weekly note: how well does the market price each crypto asset?

Every fourth week, the Brier score of Polymarket's own price one minute before the close, against a plain volatility model, for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and XRP Up or Down windows — this week next to the week before.

Weekly noteLast updated Nov 2, 2026nights Oct 19 – Nov 1, 2026

3 of 4

assets where the market scored better

previous week 4 of 4

Week of Oct 26, 2026

The market's own price had the lower Brier score on 3 of 4 assets this week, against 4 of 4 the week before; 3 of 4 kept the same side across both weeks.

BTC windows (2,818): market 0.0449, model 0.0465; previous week 0.0419 and 0.0455 — market ahead by 0.0016.

ETH windows (2,818): market 0.0499, model 0.0507; previous week 0.0465 and 0.0491 — market ahead by 0.0007.

SOL windows (2,818): market 0.0516, model 0.0520; previous week 0.0443 and 0.0458 — market ahead by 0.0004.

XRP windows (2,818): market 0.0513, model 0.0508; previous week 0.0437 and 0.0451 — model ahead by 0.0005.

This week — Oct 26–Nov 1 (UTC)
asset	windows	market Brier	model Brier	model − market
BTC	2,818	0.0449	0.0465	+0.0016
ETH	2,818	0.0499	0.0507	+0.0007
SOL	2,818	0.0516	0.0520	+0.0004
XRP	2,818	0.0513	0.0508	−0.0005

Previous week — Oct 19–Oct 25 (UTC)
asset	windows	market Brier	model Brier	model − market
BTC	2,852	0.0419	0.0455	+0.0036
ETH	2,853	0.0465	0.0491	+0.0026
SOL	2,853	0.0443	0.0458	+0.0015
XRP	2,853	0.0437	0.0451	+0.0013

Weeks published so far

Weeks published so far — market Brier / model Brier
week	BTC	ETH	SOL	XRP
Oct 26–Nov 1	0.0449 / 0.0465	0.0499 / 0.0507	0.0516 / 0.0520	0.0513 / 0.0508

How it was measured

Brier score at T−60 s over every resolved window of the week (5m, 15m and 1h pooled), with both probabilities present: the market's mid price on the Up side, and our normal volatility model. Lower is better; 0.25 is a coin flip.

Two disjoint weeks, Monday to Sunday UTC: Oct 19–Oct 25 and Oct 26–Nov 1. Outcomes are Polymarket's official resolutions.

Limits

A week is a small sample: a difference between two weeks smaller than the swing from one week to the next is noise. That is why the previous week is always shown beside the current one.

Windows overlap in time and the four assets move together; the weekly figures are not independent draws.

Data analytics on Polymarket crypto markets · not financial advice · 18+. Figures from our own records of every window; outcomes are Polymarket's official resolutions.