2026-07-31
1654 windows (0 with uncertain resolution, excluded from grading) · 20377 paper trades
model Brier t60 0.0955market Brier t60 0.0931lead corr 0.63lead hit 72%
Strategies this night (bootstrap 95% CI · ● = clear of zero)
| strategy | n | win | P&L $ | /trade | 95% CI ¢/trade | max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDGE6 | 1541 | 45% | +67.86 | +4.4¢ | [+2.1 ; +7.0] | 15.82 |
| LEAD3 | 1399 | 48% | +66.47 | +4.8¢ | [+2.3 ; +7.2] | 13.49 |
| EDGE8_BUILT | 1280 | 41% | +65.72 | +5.1¢ | [+2.6 ; +7.7] | 10.72 |
| EDGE8 | 1353 | 42% | +65.21 | +4.8¢ | [+2.3 ; +7.3] | 15.25 |
| COMBO | 1515 | 46% | +53.20 | +3.5¢ | [+1.1 ; +5.8] | 19.60 |
| EDGE12 | 831 | 38% | +41.59 | +5.0¢ | [+1.9 ; +8.1] | 12.48 |
| EDGE12_BUILT | 749 | 37% | +39.29 | +5.2¢ | [+2.1 ; +8.5] | 9.82 |
| EDGE4_EARLY | 1527 | 46% | +32.26 | +2.1¢ | [−0.4 ; +4.5] | 15.40 |
| EDGE2 | 1648 | 48% | +31.86 | +1.9¢ | [−0.4 ; +4.3] | 18.14 |
| EDGE4_T | 1629 | 54% | +31.00 | +1.9¢ | [−0.4 ; +4.2] | 21.60 |
| EDGE4 | 1629 | 45% | +26.11 | +1.6¢ | [−0.7 ; +4.0] | 17.74 |
| IVRV | 1302 | 61% | +22.69 | +1.7¢ | [−0.7 ; +4.4] | 15.10 |
| CTRL_FAV30 | 1147 | 91% | +1.31 | +0.1¢ | [−1.5 ; +1.6] | 7.56 |
| EDGE4_LATE | 1221 | 34% | −8.80 | −0.7¢ | [−3.0 ; +1.6] | 18.72 |
| CTRL_RND | 1606 | 48% | −25.51 | −1.6¢ | [−3.5 ; +0.3] | 41.57 |
Trades simulated at the book's real ask, at most 1 trade per strategy per window, never in the last 20 seconds. Controls serve as the comparison baseline.