2026-08-07
1677 windows (0 with uncertain resolution, excluded from grading) · 21561 paper trades
model Brier t60 0.0846market Brier t60 0.0886lead corr 0.62lead hit 65%
Strategies this night (bootstrap 95% CI · ● = clear of zero)
| strategy | n | win | P&L $ | /trade | 95% CI ¢/trade | max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEAD3 | 1466 | 49% | +112.77 | +7.7¢ | [+5.3 ; +10.1] | 6.76 |
| COMBO | 1581 | 47% | +107.36 | +6.8¢ | [+4.4 ; +9.1] | 8.14 |
| EDGE8_BUILT | 1451 | 43% | +104.56 | +7.2¢ | [+4.8 ; +9.5] | 8.82 |
| EDGE12 | 1165 | 41% | +103.51 | +8.9¢ | [+6.3 ; +11.4] | 7.47 |
| EDGE12_BUILT | 1116 | 41% | +102.16 | +9.2¢ | [+6.5 ; +11.7] | 6.88 |
| EDGE8 | 1506 | 44% | +92.86 | +6.2¢ | [+3.7 ; +8.7] | 13.05 |
| EDGE6 | 1630 | 46% | +85.69 | +5.3¢ | [+3.0 ; +7.6] | 12.81 |
| EDGE4 | 1669 | 48% | +79.44 | +4.8¢ | [+2.4 ; +7.1] | 11.83 |
| EDGE4_T | 1668 | 53% | +79.32 | +4.8¢ | [+2.4 ; +7.1] | 15.03 |
| EDGE4_EARLY | 1610 | 48% | +71.95 | +4.5¢ | [+2.0 ; +6.9] | 12.41 |
| EDGE2 | 1677 | 49% | +58.64 | +3.5¢ | [+1.1 ; +6.0] | 16.79 |
| IVRV | 1307 | 63% | +58.14 | +4.4¢ | [+1.8 ; +7.0] | 18.04 |
| EDGE4_LATE | 1292 | 32% | +44.91 | +3.5¢ | [+1.3 ; +5.6] | 8.57 |
| CTRL_RND | 1592 | 49% | −19.37 | −1.2¢ | [−3.3 ; +0.8] | 32.60 |
| CTRL_FAV30 | 831 | 84% | −76.34 | −9.2¢ | [−11.4 ; −6.9] | 77.65 |
Trades simulated at the book's real ask, at most 1 trade per strategy per window, never in the last 20 seconds. Controls serve as the comparison baseline.