2026-08-10
1632 windows (0 with uncertain resolution, excluded from grading) · 21145 paper trades
model Brier t60 0.0795market Brier t60 0.0863lead corr 0.63lead hit 69%
Strategies this night (bootstrap 95% CI · ● = clear of zero)
| strategy | n | win | P&L $ | /trade | 95% CI ¢/trade | max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDGE12 | 1232 | 39% | +107.10 | +8.7¢ | [+6.2 ; +11.3] | 8.45 |
| EDGE12_BUILT | 1193 | 38% | +102.61 | +8.6¢ | [+6.1 ; +11.2] | 7.86 |
| LEAD3 | 1439 | 44% | +88.25 | +6.1¢ | [+3.7 ; +8.6] | 14.98 |
| EDGE8_BUILT | 1465 | 40% | +86.20 | +5.9¢ | [+3.5 ; +8.4] | 10.59 |
| EDGE8 | 1511 | 41% | +78.58 | +5.2¢ | [+2.8 ; +7.6] | 11.02 |
| COMBO | 1575 | 43% | +77.77 | +4.9¢ | [+2.6 ; +7.3] | 15.74 |
| EDGE4_LATE | 1249 | 30% | +66.98 | +5.4¢ | [+3.1 ; +7.6] | 5.78 |
| EDGE6 | 1597 | 43% | +66.26 | +4.1¢ | [+1.7 ; +6.5] | 11.41 |
| EDGE4 | 1623 | 44% | +46.36 | +2.9¢ | [+0.5 ; +5.2] | 18.81 |
| EDGE4_EARLY | 1602 | 44% | +45.72 | +2.9¢ | [+0.5 ; +5.3] | 18.56 |
| IVRV | 1103 | 62% | +42.29 | +3.8¢ | [+0.9 ; +6.8] | 10.89 |
| EDGE4_T | 1628 | 47% | +41.01 | +2.5¢ | [+0.2 ; +4.9] | 15.69 |
| EDGE2 | 1631 | 44% | +21.70 | +1.3¢ | [−1.0 ; +3.6] | 23.09 |
| CTRL_RND | 1556 | 48% | −18.34 | −1.2¢ | [−3.2 ; +0.9] | 27.89 |
| CTRL_FAV30 | 741 | 83% | −106.85 | −14.4¢ | [−17.2 ; −12.0] | 106.85 |
Trades simulated at the book's real ask, at most 1 trade per strategy per window, never in the last 20 seconds. Controls serve as the comparison baseline.