2026-08-11
1632 windows (0 with uncertain resolution, excluded from grading) · 21265 paper trades
model Brier t60 0.0770market Brier t60 0.0612lead corr 0.57lead hit 49%
Strategies this night (bootstrap 95% CI · ● = clear of zero)
| strategy | n | win | P&L $ | /trade | 95% CI ¢/trade | max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEAD3 | 1435 | 44% | +63.39 | +4.4¢ | [+2.1 ; +6.8] | 12.86 |
| EDGE12 | 1257 | 35% | +48.05 | +3.8¢ | [+1.2 ; +6.3] | 8.38 |
| EDGE12_BUILT | 1189 | 35% | +42.86 | +3.6¢ | [+1.1 ; +6.1] | 9.41 |
| EDGE6 | 1597 | 41% | +35.65 | +2.2¢ | [+0.0 ; +4.7] | 19.16 |
| EDGE4_EARLY | 1602 | 43% | +34.42 | +2.1¢ | [−0.2 ; +4.5] | 18.14 |
| EDGE4_T | 1617 | 47% | +32.98 | +2.0¢ | [−0.3 ; +4.5] | 12.90 |
| EDGE4 | 1628 | 43% | +32.60 | +2.0¢ | [−0.3 ; +4.3] | 17.11 |
| EDGE2 | 1632 | 44% | +27.41 | +1.7¢ | [−0.6 ; +4.1] | 24.43 |
| COMBO | 1567 | 41% | +20.73 | +1.3¢ | [−0.9 ; +3.7] | 18.42 |
| EDGE8 | 1509 | 38% | +19.55 | +1.3¢ | [−1.0 ; +3.6] | 19.09 |
| EDGE8_BUILT | 1448 | 36% | +12.09 | +0.8¢ | [−1.6 ; +3.2] | 16.13 |
| CTRL_FAV30 | 797 | 97% | +5.19 | +0.7¢ | [−0.5 ; +1.7] | 3.60 |
| IVRV | 1205 | 58% | −0.82 | −0.1¢ | [−2.8 ; +2.7] | 18.61 |
| EDGE4_LATE | 1217 | 26% | −16.24 | −1.3¢ | [−3.5 ; +0.9] | 19.30 |
| CTRL_RND | 1565 | 49% | −21.32 | −1.4¢ | [−3.2 ; +0.6] | 31.78 |
Trades simulated at the book's real ask, at most 1 trade per strategy per window, never in the last 20 seconds. Controls serve as the comparison baseline.