2026-08-13
1632 windows (0 with uncertain resolution, excluded from grading) · 21308 paper trades
model Brier t60 0.0845market Brier t60 0.0914lead corr 0.60lead hit 60%
Strategies this night (bootstrap 95% CI · ● = clear of zero)
| strategy | n | win | P&L $ | /trade | 95% CI ¢/trade | max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDGE12 | 1266 | 43% | +116.02 | +9.2¢ | [+6.6 ; +11.6] | 7.78 |
| LEAD3 | 1484 | 49% | +111.00 | +7.5¢ | [+5.0 ; +9.9] | 11.10 |
| EDGE12_BUILT | 1213 | 42% | +107.61 | +8.9¢ | [+6.3 ; +11.6] | 10.11 |
| COMBO | 1583 | 48% | +102.27 | +6.5¢ | [+4.2 ; +8.9] | 12.72 |
| EDGE8 | 1506 | 45% | +95.65 | +6.4¢ | [+4.0 ; +8.8] | 12.63 |
| EDGE6 | 1596 | 46% | +91.13 | +5.7¢ | [+3.4 ; +8.1] | 18.19 |
| EDGE8_BUILT | 1464 | 43% | +84.37 | +5.8¢ | [+3.3 ; +8.2] | 14.15 |
| EDGE4_T | 1626 | 51% | +82.69 | +5.1¢ | [+2.9 ; +7.4] | 18.32 |
| EDGE4 | 1629 | 47% | +70.70 | +4.3¢ | [+2.1 ; +6.8] | 20.85 |
| IVRV | 1242 | 63% | +63.28 | +5.1¢ | [+2.3 ; +7.6] | 14.13 |
| EDGE4_EARLY | 1588 | 46% | +59.38 | +3.7¢ | [+1.3 ; +6.0] | 21.47 |
| EDGE2 | 1632 | 47% | +50.20 | +3.1¢ | [+0.6 ; +5.4] | 23.75 |
| EDGE4_LATE | 1268 | 34% | +48.59 | +3.8¢ | [+1.6 ; +6.1] | 18.52 |
| CTRL_RND | 1542 | 51% | −0.45 | −0.0¢ | [−2.1 ; +2.1] | 17.55 |
| CTRL_FAV30 | 669 | 86% | −70.12 | −10.5¢ | [−13.1 ; −8.0] | 71.21 |
Trades simulated at the book's real ask, at most 1 trade per strategy per window, never in the last 20 seconds. Controls serve as the comparison baseline.