2026-08-13
1632 windows (0 with uncertain resolution, excluded from grading) · 21308 paper trades
model Brier t60 0.0761market Brier t60 0.0628lead corr 0.60lead hit 60%
Strategies this night (bootstrap 95% CI · ● = clear of zero)
| strategy | n | win | P&L $ | /trade | 95% CI ¢/trade | max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEAD3 | 1484 | 44% | +45.00 | +3.0¢ | [+0.8 ; +5.3] | 17.49 |
| EDGE12 | 1266 | 37% | +41.02 | +3.2¢ | [+0.6 ; +5.8] | 21.91 |
| EDGE12_BUILT | 1213 | 36% | +38.61 | +3.2¢ | [+0.6 ; +5.8] | 19.52 |
| COMBO | 1583 | 43% | +37.27 | +2.4¢ | [+0.2 ; +4.6] | 24.37 |
| EDGE8 | 1506 | 41% | +32.65 | +2.2¢ | [−0.2 ; +4.5] | 24.14 |
| IVRV | 1242 | 61% | +30.28 | +2.4¢ | [−0.2 ; +5.1] | 25.17 |
| EDGE4_T | 1626 | 48% | +23.69 | +1.5¢ | [−1.0 ; +3.8] | 31.49 |
| EDGE8_BUILT | 1464 | 39% | +21.37 | +1.5¢ | [−0.9 ; +3.7] | 28.65 |
| EDGE6 | 1596 | 42% | +20.13 | +1.3¢ | [−1.1 ; +3.6] | 33.45 |
| CTRL_FAV30 | 669 | 97% | +6.88 | +1.0¢ | [−0.1 ; +2.1] | 3.42 |
| EDGE4 | 1629 | 42% | −2.30 | −0.1¢ | [−2.5 ; +2.3] | 44.13 |
| CTRL_RND | 1542 | 51% | −5.45 | −0.4¢ | [−2.3 ; +1.7] | 24.04 |
| EDGE2 | 1632 | 43% | −8.80 | −0.5¢ | [−3.0 ; +1.8] | 44.98 |
| EDGE4_EARLY | 1588 | 41% | −12.62 | −0.8¢ | [−3.2 ; +1.5] | 46.80 |
| EDGE4_LATE | 1268 | 28% | −21.41 | −1.7¢ | [−3.8 ; +0.3] | 43.08 |
Trades simulated at the book's real ask, at most 1 trade per strategy per window, never in the last 20 seconds. Controls serve as the comparison baseline.