2026-08-14
1632 windows (0 with uncertain resolution, excluded from grading) · 21117 paper trades
model Brier t60 0.0742market Brier t60 0.0485lead corr 0.61lead hit 61%
Strategies this night (bootstrap 95% CI · ● = clear of zero)
| strategy | n | win | P&L $ | /trade | 95% CI ¢/trade | max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDGE12 | 1275 | 38% | +72.02 | +5.6¢ | [+3.1 ; +8.1] | 13.91 |
| LEAD3 | 1497 | 42% | +64.34 | +4.3¢ | [+2.1 ; +6.7] | 14.01 |
| EDGE12_BUILT | 1230 | 35% | +57.08 | +4.6¢ | [+2.1 ; +7.2] | 11.56 |
| EDGE2 | 1631 | 44% | +37.89 | +2.3¢ | [−0.0 ; +4.8] | 18.42 |
| COMBO | 1582 | 41% | +31.52 | +2.0¢ | [−0.1 ; +4.3] | 17.81 |
| IVRV | 1194 | 61% | +29.89 | +2.5¢ | [−0.1 ; +5.3] | 21.32 |
| EDGE6 | 1584 | 41% | +28.80 | +1.8¢ | [−0.6 ; +4.2] | 19.27 |
| EDGE8 | 1508 | 39% | +26.50 | +1.8¢ | [−0.5 ; +4.2] | 18.51 |
| EDGE4_EARLY | 1600 | 42% | +19.54 | +1.2¢ | [−1.2 ; +3.6] | 24.78 |
| EDGE8_BUILT | 1463 | 36% | +18.92 | +1.3¢ | [−1.0 ; +3.6] | 18.02 |
| EDGE4_T | 1623 | 47% | +17.46 | +1.1¢ | [−1.2 ; +3.4] | 24.41 |
| EDGE4 | 1626 | 42% | +17.15 | +1.1¢ | [−1.2 ; +3.2] | 26.71 |
| EDGE4_LATE | 1263 | 28% | +7.77 | +0.6¢ | [−1.5 ; +2.8] | 20.75 |
| CTRL_RND | 1524 | 51% | +3.11 | +0.2¢ | [−1.8 ; +2.2] | 21.65 |
| CTRL_FAV30 | 517 | 96% | −5.19 | −1.0¢ | [−2.6 ; +0.5] | 6.21 |
Trades simulated at the book's real ask, at most 1 trade per strategy per window, never in the last 20 seconds. Controls serve as the comparison baseline.