2026-08-14
1632 windows (0 with uncertain resolution, excluded from grading) · 21117 paper trades
model Brier t60 0.0807market Brier t60 0.0904lead corr 0.61lead hit 61%
Strategies this night (bootstrap 95% CI · ● = clear of zero)
| strategy | n | win | P&L $ | /trade | 95% CI ¢/trade | max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDGE12 | 1275 | 46% | +177.02 | +13.9¢ | [+11.2 ; +16.5] | 5.14 |
| EDGE12_BUILT | 1230 | 44% | +159.08 | +12.9¢ | [+10.4 ; +15.6] | 6.46 |
| LEAD3 | 1497 | 48% | +152.34 | +10.2¢ | [+7.7 ; +12.6] | 7.47 |
| COMBO | 1582 | 47% | +128.52 | +8.1¢ | [+5.8 ; +10.5] | 10.91 |
| EDGE8_BUILT | 1463 | 44% | +124.92 | +8.5¢ | [+6.3 ; +11.0] | 9.40 |
| EDGE8 | 1508 | 45% | +124.50 | +8.3¢ | [+5.9 ; +10.9] | 8.84 |
| EDGE6 | 1584 | 47% | +123.80 | +7.8¢ | [+5.6 ; +10.2] | 10.33 |
| EDGE2 | 1631 | 49% | +114.89 | +7.0¢ | [+4.6 ; +9.4] | 13.39 |
| EDGE4_EARLY | 1600 | 48% | +106.54 | +6.7¢ | [+4.2 ; +9.1] | 15.51 |
| EDGE4_LATE | 1263 | 35% | +104.77 | +8.3¢ | [+6.0 ; +10.5] | 5.78 |
| EDGE4 | 1626 | 48% | +104.15 | +6.4¢ | [+4.1 ; +8.7] | 15.30 |
| EDGE4_T | 1623 | 52% | +98.46 | +6.1¢ | [+3.8 ; +8.5] | 11.96 |
| IVRV | 1194 | 65% | +76.89 | +6.4¢ | [+3.8 ; +9.1] | 10.10 |
| CTRL_RND | 1524 | 50% | −15.89 | −1.0¢ | [−3.3 ; +1.2] | 32.00 |
| CTRL_FAV30 | 517 | 82% | −74.19 | −14.3¢ | [−17.5 ; −11.3] | 74.33 |
Trades simulated at the book's real ask, at most 1 trade per strategy per window, never in the last 20 seconds. Controls serve as the comparison baseline.