2026-08-15
1632 windows (0 with uncertain resolution, excluded from grading) · 21371 paper trades
model Brier t60 0.0834market Brier t60 0.0912lead corr 0.56lead hit 46%
Strategies this night (bootstrap 95% CI · ● = clear of zero)
| strategy | n | win | P&L $ | /trade | 95% CI ¢/trade | max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDGE12 | 1371 | 40% | +93.15 | +6.8¢ | [+4.3 ; +9.2] | 11.44 |
| LEAD3 | 1397 | 45% | +81.19 | +5.8¢ | [+3.4 ; +8.5] | 15.50 |
| EDGE12_BUILT | 1311 | 38% | +79.13 | +6.0¢ | [+3.4 ; +8.6] | 11.74 |
| EDGE8_BUILT | 1516 | 41% | +73.05 | +4.8¢ | [+2.4 ; +7.3] | 20.93 |
| COMBO | 1601 | 43% | +67.44 | +4.2¢ | [+1.9 ; +6.5] | 28.66 |
| EDGE4 | 1630 | 45% | +63.47 | +3.9¢ | [+1.5 ; +6.3] | 28.44 |
| EDGE4_EARLY | 1583 | 45% | +62.71 | +4.0¢ | [+1.5 ; +6.4] | 28.88 |
| EDGE8 | 1547 | 42% | +62.17 | +4.0¢ | [+1.7 ; +6.4] | 25.54 |
| EDGE6 | 1607 | 44% | +60.75 | +3.8¢ | [+1.5 ; +6.3] | 28.90 |
| EDGE4_LATE | 1317 | 33% | +51.38 | +3.9¢ | [+1.8 ; +6.0] | 9.20 |
| IVRV | 1069 | 66% | +49.04 | +4.6¢ | [+1.8 ; +7.4] | 12.46 |
| EDGE2 | 1632 | 46% | +47.16 | +2.9¢ | [+0.5 ; +5.3] | 27.12 |
| EDGE4_T | 1627 | 47% | +46.79 | +2.9¢ | [+0.4 ; +5.4] | 29.01 |
| CTRL_RND | 1543 | 50% | −9.65 | −0.6¢ | [−2.7 ; +1.5] | 20.12 |
| CTRL_FAV30 | 620 | 82% | −91.73 | −14.8¢ | [−17.8 ; −11.9] | 92.58 |
Trades simulated at the book's real ask, at most 1 trade per strategy per window, never in the last 20 seconds. Controls serve as the comparison baseline.