2026-08-16
1632 windows (0 with uncertain resolution, excluded from grading) · 21794 paper trades
model Brier t60 0.0872market Brier t60 0.1020lead corr 0.51lead hit 49%
Strategies this night (bootstrap 95% CI · ● = clear of zero)
| strategy | n | win | P&L $ | /trade | 95% CI ¢/trade | max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEAD3 | 1426 | 48% | +135.51 | +9.5¢ | [+7.0 ; +11.8] | 9.03 |
| EDGE6 | 1625 | 48% | +117.91 | +7.3¢ | [+4.8 ; +9.5] | 14.94 |
| COMBO | 1615 | 47% | +117.81 | +7.3¢ | [+5.0 ; +9.6] | 9.50 |
| EDGE4 | 1632 | 49% | +116.66 | +7.1¢ | [+4.6 ; +9.7] | 14.48 |
| EDGE4_EARLY | 1602 | 49% | +113.93 | +7.1¢ | [+4.8 ; +9.5] | 13.00 |
| EDGE8 | 1591 | 45% | +108.86 | +6.8¢ | [+4.4 ; +9.3] | 16.27 |
| EDGE12 | 1453 | 41% | +107.30 | +7.4¢ | [+4.8 ; +9.6] | 10.73 |
| EDGE4_T | 1631 | 50% | +104.89 | +6.4¢ | [+4.0 ; +8.7] | 18.34 |
| EDGE8_BUILT | 1557 | 44% | +103.46 | +6.6¢ | [+4.4 ; +8.9] | 11.11 |
| EDGE12_BUILT | 1395 | 40% | +99.05 | +7.1¢ | [+4.7 ; +9.6] | 11.74 |
| EDGE2 | 1632 | 49% | +98.71 | +6.0¢ | [+3.7 ; +8.4] | 16.69 |
| IVRV | 1038 | 68% | +83.85 | +8.1¢ | [+5.3 ; +10.7] | 7.57 |
| EDGE4_LATE | 1337 | 35% | +83.62 | +6.3¢ | [+4.1 ; +8.5] | 6.17 |
| CTRL_RND | 1563 | 49% | −8.83 | −0.6¢ | [−2.7 ; +1.6] | 26.07 |
| CTRL_FAV30 | 697 | 82% | −106.31 | −15.3¢ | [−18.0 ; −12.5] | 106.44 |
Trades simulated at the book's real ask, at most 1 trade per strategy per window, never in the last 20 seconds. Controls serve as the comparison baseline.