2026-08-16
1632 windows (0 with uncertain resolution, excluded from grading) · 21794 paper trades
model Brier t60 0.0881market Brier t60 0.0557lead corr 0.51lead hit 49%
Strategies this night (bootstrap 95% CI · ● = clear of zero)
| strategy | n | win | P&L $ | /trade | 95% CI ¢/trade | max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEAD3 | 1426 | 43% | +62.51 | +4.4¢ | [+2.0 ; +6.7] | 11.09 |
| EDGE6 | 1625 | 43% | +40.91 | +2.5¢ | [+0.2 ; +4.8] | 19.34 |
| COMBO | 1615 | 42% | +38.81 | +2.4¢ | [+0.2 ; +4.7] | 17.22 |
| EDGE4 | 1632 | 44% | +35.66 | +2.2¢ | [−0.1 ; +4.6] | 22.36 |
| EDGE4_EARLY | 1602 | 44% | +31.93 | +2.0¢ | [−0.3 ; +4.4] | 21.83 |
| IVRV | 1038 | 63% | +28.85 | +2.8¢ | [−0.1 ; +5.7] | 16.21 |
| EDGE8 | 1591 | 40% | +25.86 | +1.6¢ | [−0.6 ; +3.9] | 20.46 |
| EDGE4_T | 1631 | 45% | +17.89 | +1.1¢ | [−1.3 ; +3.4] | 25.35 |
| EDGE2 | 1632 | 44% | +17.71 | +1.1¢ | [−1.3 ; +3.5] | 25.01 |
| EDGE8_BUILT | 1557 | 38% | +16.46 | +1.1¢ | [−1.2 ; +3.4] | 18.19 |
| EDGE12 | 1453 | 35% | +10.30 | +0.7¢ | [−1.6 ; +3.1] | 18.35 |
| EDGE12_BUILT | 1395 | 33% | +4.05 | +0.3¢ | [−2.1 ; +2.5] | 20.68 |
| CTRL_FAV30 | 697 | 98% | +3.69 | +0.5¢ | [−0.6 ; +1.6] | 4.53 |
| CTRL_RND | 1563 | 50% | +2.17 | +0.1¢ | [−1.9 ; +2.1] | 17.03 |
| EDGE4_LATE | 1337 | 28% | −8.38 | −0.6¢ | [−2.5 ; +1.5] | 21.97 |
Trades simulated at the book's real ask, at most 1 trade per strategy per window, never in the last 20 seconds. Controls serve as the comparison baseline.