2026-08-17
1632 windows (0 with uncertain resolution, excluded from grading) · 21049 paper trades
model Brier t60 0.0760market Brier t60 0.0827lead corr 0.61lead hit 69%
Strategies this night (bootstrap 95% CI · ● = clear of zero)
| strategy | n | win | P&L $ | /trade | 95% CI ¢/trade | max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COMBO | 1590 | 44% | +116.82 | +7.3¢ | [+5.1 ; +9.8] | 8.90 |
| EDGE12 | 1334 | 39% | +113.78 | +8.5¢ | [+6.0 ; +11.0] | 6.22 |
| LEAD3 | 1438 | 45% | +113.03 | +7.9¢ | [+5.5 ; +10.1] | 11.41 |
| EDGE8 | 1547 | 43% | +111.95 | +7.2¢ | [+4.9 ; +9.6] | 11.19 |
| EDGE12_BUILT | 1280 | 38% | +102.17 | +8.0¢ | [+5.4 ; +10.6] | 6.71 |
| EDGE8_BUILT | 1503 | 41% | +98.80 | +6.6¢ | [+4.2 ; +8.9] | 9.70 |
| EDGE4_EARLY | 1613 | 46% | +97.24 | +6.0¢ | [+3.7 ; +8.6] | 9.25 |
| EDGE6 | 1605 | 44% | +95.47 | +5.9¢ | [+3.5 ; +8.4] | 12.70 |
| EDGE4 | 1630 | 46% | +94.09 | +5.8¢ | [+3.2 ; +8.2] | 9.25 |
| EDGE4_T | 1627 | 49% | +87.99 | +5.4¢ | [+2.9 ; +7.8] | 15.03 |
| IVRV | 1100 | 66% | +86.06 | +7.8¢ | [+5.1 ; +10.4] | 8.44 |
| EDGE2 | 1632 | 47% | +81.49 | +5.0¢ | [+2.6 ; +7.5] | 12.62 |
| EDGE4_LATE | 1249 | 28% | +54.71 | +4.4¢ | [+2.2 ; +6.6] | 7.23 |
| CTRL_RND | 1509 | 49% | −17.17 | −1.1¢ | [−3.1 ; +0.9] | 23.33 |
| CTRL_FAV30 | 392 | 79% | −71.62 | −18.3¢ | [−22.4 ; −14.1] | 71.64 |
Trades simulated at the book's real ask, at most 1 trade per strategy per window, never in the last 20 seconds. Controls serve as the comparison baseline.