2026-08-19
1636 windows (0 with uncertain resolution, excluded from grading) · 19516 paper trades
model Brier t60 0.0514market Brier t60 0.0726lead corr 0.58lead hit 60%
Strategies this night (bootstrap 95% CI · ● = clear of zero)
| strategy | n | win | P&L $ | /trade | 95% CI ¢/trade | max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDGE8 | 1412 | 47% | +101.88 | +7.2¢ | [+4.8 ; +9.6] | 9.80 |
| EDGE8_BUILT | 1339 | 45% | +88.15 | +6.6¢ | [+4.2 ; +9.0] | 7.95 |
| EDGE4 | 1605 | 50% | +83.47 | +5.2¢ | [+2.9 ; +7.5] | 11.41 |
| EDGE6 | 1538 | 47% | +82.67 | +5.4¢ | [+3.0 ; +7.9] | 9.42 |
| COMBO | 1474 | 47% | +77.18 | +5.2¢ | [+2.9 ; +7.5] | 12.07 |
| EDGE4_EARLY | 1532 | 49% | +76.68 | +5.0¢ | [+2.5 ; +7.5] | 11.24 |
| EDGE2 | 1625 | 52% | +76.23 | +4.7¢ | [+2.4 ; +7.0] | 12.72 |
| LEAD3 | 1260 | 49% | +74.17 | +5.9¢ | [+3.4 ; +8.4] | 9.66 |
| EDGE12 | 1020 | 44% | +72.91 | +7.1¢ | [+4.6 ; +9.9] | 8.94 |
| EDGE4_T | 1596 | 54% | +71.02 | +4.4¢ | [+2.1 ; +6.7] | 11.07 |
| EDGE4_LATE | 1088 | 40% | +69.65 | +6.4¢ | [+4.0 ; +8.8] | 6.03 |
| EDGE12_BUILT | 963 | 43% | +66.23 | +6.9¢ | [+4.0 ; +9.7] | 8.84 |
| IVRV | 1110 | 63% | +40.00 | +3.6¢ | [+0.8 ; +6.3] | 9.59 |
| CTRL_FAV30 | 471 | 82% | −14.21 | −3.0¢ | [−6.1 ; −0.1] | 18.64 |
| CTRL_RND | 1483 | 51% | −34.45 | −2.3¢ | [−4.2 ; −0.2] | 42.03 |
Trades simulated at the book's real ask, at most 1 trade per strategy per window, never in the last 20 seconds. Controls serve as the comparison baseline.