2026-08-21
1632 windows (0 with uncertain resolution, excluded from grading) · 17301 paper trades
model Brier t60 0.0448market Brier t60 0.0419lead corr 0.63lead hit 76%
Strategies this night (bootstrap 95% CI · ● = clear of zero)
| strategy | n | win | P&L $ | /trade | 95% CI ¢/trade | max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEAD3 | 1180 | 46% | +76.94 | +6.5¢ | [+4.0 ; +9.2] | 7.65 |
| EDGE2 | 1629 | 49% | +66.12 | +4.1¢ | [+1.7 ; +6.5] | 9.94 |
| COMBO | 1310 | 43% | +63.64 | +4.9¢ | [+2.3 ; +7.5] | 16.64 |
| EDGE6 | 1427 | 44% | +63.51 | +4.5¢ | [+2.1 ; +6.9] | 18.13 |
| EDGE8 | 1167 | 40% | +56.19 | +4.8¢ | [+2.3 ; +7.4] | 13.13 |
| EDGE12 | 626 | 39% | +53.37 | +8.5¢ | [+5.0 ; +11.9] | 5.17 |
| EDGE4 | 1582 | 45% | +44.91 | +2.8¢ | [+0.5 ; +5.2] | 15.34 |
| EDGE12_BUILT | 543 | 36% | +44.46 | +8.2¢ | [+4.5 ; +12.1] | 5.05 |
| EDGE4_EARLY | 1490 | 45% | +42.74 | +2.9¢ | [+0.4 ; +5.3] | 14.20 |
| EDGE8_BUILT | 1058 | 37% | +36.02 | +3.4¢ | [+0.8 ; +6.1] | 18.03 |
| EDGE4_T | 1570 | 53% | +23.46 | +1.5¢ | [−0.8 ; +3.8] | 18.28 |
| CTRL_RND | 1428 | 51% | +7.75 | +0.5¢ | [−1.4 ; +2.5] | 13.24 |
| CTRL_FAV30 | 241 | 96% | +7.03 | +2.9¢ | [+0.5 ; +5.0] | 1.56 |
| EDGE4_LATE | 950 | 32% | +5.60 | +0.6¢ | [−2.0 ; +3.2] | 11.68 |
| IVRV | 1100 | 59% | −6.32 | −0.6¢ | [−3.4 ; +2.4] | 20.88 |
Trades simulated at the book's real ask, at most 1 trade per strategy per window, never in the last 20 seconds. Controls serve as the comparison baseline.