2026-08-24
1632 windows (0 with uncertain resolution, excluded from grading) · 16850 paper trades
model Brier t60 0.0495market Brier t60 0.0474lead corr 0.63lead hit 75%
Strategies this night (bootstrap 95% CI · ● = clear of zero)
| strategy | n | win | P&L $ | /trade | 95% CI ¢/trade | max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COMBO | 1231 | 46% | +60.89 | +4.9¢ | [+2.5 ; +7.4] | 17.05 |
| LEAD3 | 1170 | 47% | +49.58 | +4.2¢ | [+1.6 ; +6.7] | 10.81 |
| EDGE6 | 1353 | 44% | +38.75 | +2.9¢ | [+0.4 ; +5.3] | 24.18 |
| EDGE4_T | 1560 | 56% | +32.34 | +2.1¢ | [−0.2 ; +4.4] | 21.21 |
| EDGE8_BUILT | 962 | 40% | +31.39 | +3.3¢ | [+0.4 ; +6.2] | 14.29 |
| EDGE8 | 1087 | 40% | +28.08 | +2.6¢ | [−0.3 ; +5.3] | 21.28 |
| EDGE12_BUILT | 494 | 38% | +23.39 | +4.7¢ | [+1.0 ; +8.7] | 8.39 |
| EDGE4_EARLY | 1410 | 46% | +20.02 | +1.4¢ | [−1.0 ; +4.1] | 31.27 |
| EDGE2 | 1625 | 48% | +19.62 | +1.2¢ | [−1.2 ; +3.5] | 24.07 |
| EDGE4 | 1554 | 45% | +16.88 | +1.1¢ | [−1.2 ; +3.5] | 31.16 |
| EDGE12 | 584 | 37% | +16.86 | +2.9¢ | [−0.7 ; +6.5] | 13.07 |
| CTRL_FAV30 | 270 | 96% | +4.92 | +1.8¢ | [−0.4 ; +4.0] | 2.00 |
| IVRV | 1182 | 62% | +4.28 | +0.4¢ | [−2.4 ; +3.0] | 23.35 |
| EDGE4_LATE | 912 | 32% | −14.89 | −1.6¢ | [−4.2 ; +0.9] | 20.44 |
| CTRL_RND | 1456 | 51% | −32.10 | −2.2¢ | [−4.2 ; −0.4] | 45.23 |
Trades simulated at the book's real ask, at most 1 trade per strategy per window, never in the last 20 seconds. Controls serve as the comparison baseline.