2026-08-25
1632 windows (0 with uncertain resolution, excluded from grading) · 18571 paper trades
model Brier t60 0.0412market Brier t60 0.0405lead corr 0.63lead hit 75%
Strategies this night (bootstrap 95% CI · ● = clear of zero)
| strategy | n | win | P&L $ | /trade | 95% CI ¢/trade | max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEAD3 | 1472 | 51% | +108.10 | +7.3¢ | [+4.9 ; +9.9] | 11.97 |
| EDGE6 | 1474 | 48% | +104.48 | +7.1¢ | [+4.8 ; +9.6] | 10.85 |
| EDGE8 | 1259 | 47% | +103.38 | +8.2¢ | [+5.7 ; +10.6] | 12.47 |
| EDGE12 | 799 | 45% | +79.16 | +9.9¢ | [+6.7 ; +13.0] | 6.12 |
| EDGE8_BUILT | 1096 | 45% | +78.29 | +7.1¢ | [+4.4 ; +9.7] | 10.61 |
| EDGE4 | 1606 | 49% | +71.75 | +4.5¢ | [+2.2 ; +6.9] | 12.29 |
| EDGE4_T | 1611 | 57% | +71.44 | +4.4¢ | [+2.1 ; +6.8] | 10.40 |
| COMBO | 1489 | 47% | +68.51 | +4.6¢ | [+2.4 ; +7.0] | 12.47 |
| IVRV | 1280 | 64% | +65.25 | +5.1¢ | [+2.4 ; +7.7] | 8.39 |
| EDGE2 | 1628 | 50% | +61.92 | +3.8¢ | [+1.4 ; +6.1] | 21.84 |
| EDGE4_EARLY | 1518 | 49% | +60.70 | +4.0¢ | [+1.6 ; +6.4] | 13.66 |
| EDGE12_BUILT | 654 | 43% | +59.16 | +9.0¢ | [+5.7 ; +12.3] | 5.35 |
| EDGE4_LATE | 965 | 36% | +12.62 | +1.3¢ | [−1.0 ; +3.8] | 10.18 |
| CTRL_RND | 1458 | 51% | +10.82 | +0.7¢ | [−1.2 ; +2.7] | 11.09 |
| CTRL_FAV30 | 262 | 94% | +2.50 | +1.0¢ | [−1.7 ; +3.5] | 2.20 |
Trades simulated at the book's real ask, at most 1 trade per strategy per window, never in the last 20 seconds. Controls serve as the comparison baseline.