2026-08-26
1624 windows (0 with uncertain resolution, excluded from grading) · 18742 paper trades
model Brier t60 0.0467market Brier t60 0.0759lead corr 0.62lead hit 73%
Strategies this night (bootstrap 95% CI · ● = clear of zero)
| strategy | n | win | P&L $ | /trade | 95% CI ¢/trade | max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDGE12 | 864 | 56% | +142.80 | +16.5¢ | [+13.4 ; +19.6] | 6.22 |
| EDGE8 | 1272 | 50% | +128.01 | +10.1¢ | [+7.4 ; +12.7] | 8.26 |
| EDGE12_BUILT | 747 | 55% | +114.00 | +15.3¢ | [+11.9 ; +18.6] | 5.67 |
| EDGE8_BUILT | 1126 | 49% | +100.46 | +8.9¢ | [+6.2 ; +11.6] | 7.84 |
| EDGE4_LATE | 1013 | 47% | +97.91 | +9.7¢ | [+7.2 ; +12.1] | 6.94 |
| COMBO | 1453 | 49% | +86.80 | +6.0¢ | [+3.6 ; +8.3] | 11.59 |
| EDGE6 | 1452 | 48% | +85.06 | +5.9¢ | [+3.5 ; +8.3] | 12.56 |
| LEAD3 | 1400 | 50% | +80.23 | +5.7¢ | [+3.3 ; +8.2] | 8.90 |
| IVRV | 1291 | 63% | +67.24 | +5.2¢ | [+2.6 ; +7.7] | 19.61 |
| EDGE4_T | 1573 | 56% | +61.76 | +3.9¢ | [+1.7 ; +6.4] | 17.47 |
| EDGE4 | 1573 | 46% | +23.58 | +1.5¢ | [−0.8 ; +4.0] | 16.39 |
| EDGE4_EARLY | 1499 | 46% | +22.54 | +1.5¢ | [−0.9 ; +3.9] | 15.95 |
| CTRL_FAV30 | 420 | 75% | −2.82 | −0.7¢ | [−4.5 ; +3.2] | 7.94 |
| EDGE2 | 1611 | 46% | −8.26 | −0.5¢ | [−2.9 ; +1.8] | 32.81 |
| CTRL_RND | 1448 | 52% | −22.28 | −1.5¢ | [−3.7 ; +0.6] | 29.10 |
Trades simulated at the book's real ask, at most 1 trade per strategy per window, never in the last 20 seconds. Controls serve as the comparison baseline.