2026-08-29
1628 windows (0 with uncertain resolution, excluded from grading) · 19508 paper trades
model Brier t60 0.0556market Brier t60 0.0551lead corr 0.60lead hit 60%
Strategies this night (bootstrap 95% CI · ● = clear of zero)
| strategy | n | win | P&L $ | /trade | 95% CI ¢/trade | max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDGE12 | 1015 | 48% | +141.27 | +13.9¢ | [+11.1 ; +16.8] | 5.28 |
| EDGE8 | 1383 | 47% | +129.63 | +9.4¢ | [+6.7 ; +11.9] | 15.68 |
| LEAD3 | 1416 | 51% | +112.06 | +7.9¢ | [+5.3 ; +10.4] | 8.56 |
| COMBO | 1502 | 49% | +111.00 | +7.4¢ | [+5.1 ; +9.7] | 7.99 |
| EDGE6 | 1521 | 47% | +99.24 | +6.5¢ | [+4.0 ; +9.0] | 15.10 |
| EDGE12_BUILT | 839 | 44% | +94.81 | +11.3¢ | [+8.2 ; +14.4] | 5.39 |
| EDGE8_BUILT | 1241 | 44% | +91.53 | +7.4¢ | [+4.9 ; +9.9] | 12.22 |
| EDGE4_LATE | 1051 | 41% | +49.79 | +4.7¢ | [+2.3 ; +7.1] | 8.01 |
| EDGE4 | 1604 | 47% | +48.07 | +3.0¢ | [+0.5 ; +5.4] | 18.60 |
| IVRV | 1305 | 65% | +45.30 | +3.5¢ | [+0.9 ; +6.1] | 13.01 |
| EDGE4_T | 1594 | 53% | +37.46 | +2.4¢ | [−0.0 ; +4.7] | 24.76 |
| EDGE4_EARLY | 1504 | 46% | +35.26 | +2.3¢ | [−0.0 ; +4.9] | 20.22 |
| EDGE2 | 1627 | 47% | +18.53 | +1.1¢ | [−1.2 ; +3.5] | 16.45 |
| CTRL_FAV30 | 411 | 96% | −0.64 | −0.2¢ | [−2.1 ; +1.6] | 6.94 |
| CTRL_RND | 1495 | 51% | −7.53 | −0.5¢ | [−2.6 ; +1.5] | 26.70 |
Trades simulated at the book's real ask, at most 1 trade per strategy per window, never in the last 20 seconds. Controls serve as the comparison baseline.