2026-08-30
1628 windows (0 with uncertain resolution, excluded from grading) · 19456 paper trades
model Brier t60 0.0535market Brier t60 0.0551lead corr 0.61lead hit 55%
Strategies this night (bootstrap 95% CI · ● = clear of zero)
| strategy | n | win | P&L $ | /trade | 95% CI ¢/trade | max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDGE12 | 1018 | 46% | +107.07 | +10.5¢ | [+7.9 ; +13.2] | 6.01 |
| LEAD3 | 1433 | 50% | +104.70 | +7.3¢ | [+4.9 ; +9.7] | 15.77 |
| EDGE8 | 1378 | 46% | +89.95 | +6.5¢ | [+4.2 ; +8.9] | 12.50 |
| EDGE12_BUILT | 848 | 45% | +87.12 | +10.3¢ | [+7.1 ; +13.3] | 6.26 |
| COMBO | 1514 | 48% | +85.33 | +5.6¢ | [+3.2 ; +7.8] | 12.71 |
| EDGE8_BUILT | 1246 | 46% | +83.88 | +6.7¢ | [+4.3 ; +9.3] | 13.66 |
| EDGE6 | 1524 | 46% | +73.66 | +4.8¢ | [+2.5 ; +7.1] | 10.75 |
| EDGE4_T | 1600 | 55% | +67.40 | +4.2¢ | [+1.8 ; +6.4] | 19.04 |
| EDGE4 | 1608 | 46% | +41.69 | +2.6¢ | [+0.3 ; +5.0] | 11.54 |
| IVRV | 1220 | 65% | +39.46 | +3.2¢ | [+0.7 ; +5.7] | 20.59 |
| EDGE4_EARLY | 1547 | 46% | +37.73 | +2.4¢ | [+0.1 ; +4.8] | 11.22 |
| EDGE2 | 1627 | 48% | +14.52 | +0.9¢ | [−1.4 ; +3.2] | 17.65 |
| EDGE4_LATE | 1012 | 34% | +8.77 | +0.9¢ | [−1.4 ; +3.4] | 12.55 |
| CTRL_FAV30 | 392 | 92% | −3.69 | −0.9¢ | [−3.4 ; +1.4] | 8.37 |
| CTRL_RND | 1489 | 52% | −16.42 | −1.1¢ | [−3.1 ; +0.9] | 22.85 |
Trades simulated at the book's real ask, at most 1 trade per strategy per window, never in the last 20 seconds. Controls serve as the comparison baseline.