2026-08-31
1632 windows (0 with uncertain resolution, excluded from grading) · 19342 paper trades
model Brier t60 0.0480market Brier t60 0.0880lead corr 0.64lead hit 75%
Strategies this night (bootstrap 95% CI · ● = clear of zero)
| strategy | n | win | P&L $ | /trade | 95% CI ¢/trade | max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDGE12 | 939 | 57% | +150.29 | +16.0¢ | [+13.0 ; +18.9] | 7.28 |
| LEAD3 | 1417 | 57% | +149.95 | +10.6¢ | [+8.0 ; +13.1] | 10.08 |
| EDGE8 | 1323 | 53% | +139.72 | +10.6¢ | [+8.0 ; +13.1] | 9.61 |
| COMBO | 1489 | 55% | +137.25 | +9.2¢ | [+6.8 ; +11.7] | 10.44 |
| EDGE4_LATE | 1111 | 51% | +133.75 | +12.0¢ | [+9.6 ; +14.5] | 6.67 |
| EDGE12_BUILT | 803 | 57% | +125.71 | +15.7¢ | [+12.4 ; +18.7] | 6.96 |
| EDGE6 | 1489 | 51% | +118.86 | +8.0¢ | [+5.6 ; +10.5] | 12.08 |
| EDGE8_BUILT | 1187 | 51% | +111.87 | +9.4¢ | [+6.7 ; +12.1] | 10.57 |
| EDGE4_EARLY | 1483 | 52% | +95.50 | +6.4¢ | [+3.9 ; +8.9] | 14.06 |
| EDGE4 | 1591 | 52% | +92.98 | +5.8¢ | [+3.4 ; +8.3] | 17.52 |
| EDGE2 | 1618 | 54% | +88.57 | +5.5¢ | [+3.2 ; +7.8] | 18.83 |
| EDGE4_T | 1588 | 57% | +75.53 | +4.8¢ | [+2.4 ; +7.2] | 15.77 |
| IVRV | 1263 | 62% | +48.15 | +3.8¢ | [+1.2 ; +6.5] | 17.31 |
| CTRL_FAV30 | 554 | 73% | +0.14 | +0.0¢ | [−3.3 ; +3.3] | 13.83 |
| CTRL_RND | 1487 | 47% | −63.38 | −4.3¢ | [−6.4 ; −2.0] | 64.60 |
Trades simulated at the book's real ask, at most 1 trade per strategy per window, never in the last 20 seconds. Controls serve as the comparison baseline.