2026-09-08
1632 windows (0 with uncertain resolution, excluded from grading) · 19299 paper trades
model Brier t60 0.0543market Brier t60 0.0547lead corr 0.64lead hit 73%
Strategies this night (bootstrap 95% CI · ● = clear of zero)
| strategy | n | win | P&L $ | /trade | 95% CI ¢/trade | max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDGE8 | 1311 | 46% | +102.84 | +7.8¢ | [+5.5 ; +10.4] | 8.99 |
| EDGE12 | 897 | 46% | +97.51 | +10.9¢ | [+7.7 ; +14.1] | 8.01 |
| LEAD3 | 1432 | 50% | +76.30 | +5.3¢ | [+3.0 ; +7.8] | 14.73 |
| EDGE8_BUILT | 1192 | 44% | +72.95 | +6.1¢ | [+3.7 ; +8.7] | 7.71 |
| EDGE6 | 1502 | 46% | +71.22 | +4.7¢ | [+2.3 ; +7.2] | 14.03 |
| EDGE12_BUILT | 741 | 44% | +68.59 | +9.3¢ | [+5.8 ; +12.6] | 6.25 |
| COMBO | 1484 | 48% | +67.01 | +4.5¢ | [+2.2 ; +6.9] | 13.26 |
| EDGE4_T | 1622 | 57% | +61.84 | +3.8¢ | [+1.5 ; +6.2] | 12.96 |
| EDGE4 | 1618 | 48% | +55.27 | +3.4¢ | [+1.0 ; +5.6] | 19.25 |
| EDGE4_EARLY | 1570 | 48% | +55.17 | +3.5¢ | [+1.2 ; +5.9] | 20.01 |
| IVRV | 1409 | 63% | +44.40 | +3.2¢ | [+0.7 ; +5.6] | 18.93 |
| EDGE2 | 1632 | 48% | +27.00 | +1.7¢ | [−0.7 ; +4.0] | 19.50 |
| CTRL_FAV30 | 360 | 94% | +0.12 | +0.0¢ | [−2.0 ; +2.0] | 5.85 |
| EDGE4_LATE | 1034 | 37% | −6.58 | −0.6¢ | [−3.1 ; +1.8] | 12.84 |
| CTRL_RND | 1495 | 52% | −8.12 | −0.5¢ | [−2.6 ; +1.5] | 21.35 |
Trades simulated at the book's real ask, at most 1 trade per strategy per window, never in the last 20 seconds. Controls serve as the comparison baseline.