2026-09-26
1,632 windows graded (0 with uncertain resolution, excluded from grading) · 19,784 paper fills
model Brier t60 0.0529market Brier t60 0.0503lead corr 0.62lead hit 62%
Rules this night (bootstrap 95% CI · ● = clear of zero)
Swipe the table sideways for the P&L and the 95% CI →
| rule | fills | win | P&L $ | / fill | 95% CI ¢ / fill | max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDGE12 | 987 | 45% | +90.44 | +9.2¢ | [+6.2 ; +12.0] | 10.14 |
| EDGE12_BUILT | 900 | 44% | +81.56 | +9.1¢ | [+6.1 ; +12.0] | 7.32 |
| IVRV | 1,366 | 66% | +65.54 | +4.8¢ | [+2.3 ; +7.3] | 12.15 |
| EDGE8_BUILT | 1,300 | 42% | +39.31 | +3.0¢ | [+0.6 ; +5.3] | 16.20 |
| EDGE8 | 1,400 | 42% | +33.69 | +2.4¢ | [−0.0 ; +4.9] | 19.54 |
| EDGE4_T | 1,611 | 54% | +30.84 | +1.9¢ | [−0.4 ; +4.3] | 13.57 |
| LEAD3 | 1,453 | 46% | +30.47 | +2.1¢ | [−0.2 ; +4.4] | 11.94 |
| CTRL_FAV30 | 319 | 97% | +4.98 | +1.6¢ | [−0.4 ; +3.3] | 3.69 |
| EDGE4_LATE | 1,045 | 36% | +1.68 | +0.2¢ | [−2.0 ; +2.5] | 17.56 |
| EDGE2 | 1,632 | 47% | +1.50 | +0.1¢ | [−2.1 ; +2.6] | 17.59 |
| COMBO | 1,525 | 43% | +0.22 | +0.0¢ | [−2.2 ; +2.3] | 19.07 |
| EDGE6 | 1,556 | 42% | −10.71 | −0.7¢ | [−3.0 ; +1.6] | 26.77 |
| EDGE4_EARLY | 1,576 | 44% | −18.77 | −1.2¢ | [−3.5 ; +1.3] | 32.09 |
| EDGE4 | 1,621 | 44% | −20.59 | −1.3¢ | [−3.4 ; +1.2] | 31.62 |
| CTRL_RND | 1,493 | 49% | −57.20 | −3.8¢ | [−5.8 ; −1.9] | 58.48 |
Paper fills at the book's real ask, at most one per rule per window, never in the last 20 seconds. The controls are the comparison baseline.
Figures consolidated 11 Nov 2026 · 08:01 UTC.