2026-09-28
1628 windows (0 with uncertain resolution, excluded from grading) · 19401 paper trades
model Brier t60 0.0458market Brier t60 0.0438lead corr 0.67lead hit 78%
Strategies this night (bootstrap 95% CI · ● = clear of zero)
| strategy | n | win | P&L $ | /trade | 95% CI ¢/trade | max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COMBO | 1538 | 47% | +107.38 | +7.0¢ | [+4.5 ; +9.4] | 13.42 |
| EDGE8 | 1390 | 44% | +101.55 | +7.3¢ | [+4.6 ; +9.7] | 9.79 |
| LEAD3 | 1493 | 48% | +97.93 | +6.6¢ | [+4.3 ; +9.0] | 8.94 |
| EDGE12 | 931 | 40% | +79.21 | +8.5¢ | [+5.5 ; +11.5] | 7.00 |
| EDGE12_BUILT | 858 | 39% | +75.62 | +8.8¢ | [+5.8 ; +11.8] | 6.78 |
| EDGE8_BUILT | 1302 | 41% | +72.13 | +5.5¢ | [+3.0 ; +8.1] | 10.08 |
| EDGE6 | 1552 | 44% | +57.62 | +3.7¢ | [+1.3 ; +6.0] | 14.07 |
| EDGE4_T | 1600 | 54% | +50.84 | +3.2¢ | [+1.0 ; +5.5] | 15.72 |
| EDGE4 | 1620 | 45% | +40.19 | +2.5¢ | [+0.0 ; +4.9] | 11.61 |
| EDGE4_EARLY | 1594 | 45% | +37.15 | +2.3¢ | [+0.0 ; +4.8] | 11.39 |
| EDGE4_LATE | 1020 | 29% | +15.99 | +1.6¢ | [−0.8 ; +4.0] | 11.35 |
| IVRV | 1268 | 59% | +14.39 | +1.1¢ | [−1.7 ; +3.7] | 20.13 |
| EDGE2 | 1628 | 46% | +13.84 | +0.9¢ | [−1.6 ; +3.2] | 20.41 |
| CTRL_RND | 1395 | 53% | +7.68 | +0.6¢ | [−1.6 ; +2.6] | 10.44 |
| CTRL_FAV30 | 212 | 96% | +1.80 | +0.8¢ | [−1.6 ; +3.2] | 2.63 |
Trades simulated at the book's real ask, at most 1 trade per strategy per window, never in the last 20 seconds. Controls serve as the comparison baseline.