2026-09-29
1,632 windows graded (0 with uncertain resolution, excluded from grading) · 19,546 paper fills
model Brier t60 0.0512market Brier t60 0.0502lead corr 0.66lead hit 78%
Rules this night (bootstrap 95% CI · ● = clear of zero)
Swipe the table sideways for the P&L and the 95% CI →
| rule | fills | win | P&L $ | / fill | 95% CI ¢ / fill | max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDGE8 | 1,371 | 46% | +98.26 | +7.2¢ | [+4.8 ; +9.6] | 8.25 |
| EDGE12 | 905 | 46% | +95.30 | +10.5¢ | [+7.6 ; +13.5] | 4.28 |
| EDGE6 | 1,534 | 48% | +92.24 | +6.0¢ | [+3.6 ; +8.4] | 10.02 |
| COMBO | 1,524 | 49% | +81.80 | +5.4¢ | [+3.1 ; +7.7] | 11.91 |
| EDGE8_BUILT | 1,265 | 44% | +75.13 | +5.9¢ | [+3.4 ; +8.5] | 9.38 |
| IVRV | 1,434 | 65% | +72.16 | +5.0¢ | [+2.7 ; +7.6] | 14.08 |
| EDGE4_T | 1,628 | 57% | +71.42 | +4.4¢ | [+2.2 ; +6.5] | 13.08 |
| EDGE12_BUILT | 801 | 43% | +71.08 | +8.9¢ | [+5.9 ; +11.9] | 5.39 |
| LEAD3 | 1,472 | 50% | +68.40 | +4.6¢ | [+2.3 ; +6.9] | 11.15 |
| EDGE4_EARLY | 1,581 | 49% | +66.09 | +4.2¢ | [+1.9 ; +6.5] | 11.36 |
| EDGE4 | 1,618 | 49% | +64.18 | +4.0¢ | [+1.6 ; +6.2] | 10.86 |
| EDGE2 | 1,632 | 48% | +33.71 | +2.1¢ | [−0.3 ; +4.4] | 25.89 |
| EDGE4_LATE | 1,032 | 32% | +3.83 | +0.4¢ | [−2.0 ; +2.7] | 26.53 |
| CTRL_FAV30 | 285 | 93% | −2.70 | −0.9¢ | [−3.7 ; +1.7] | 4.83 |
| CTRL_RND | 1,464 | 49% | −23.74 | −1.6¢ | [−3.5 ; +0.3] | 30.99 |
Paper fills at the book's real ask, at most one per rule per window, never in the last 20 seconds. The controls are the comparison baseline.
Figures consolidated 14 Nov 2026 · 08:02 UTC.