2026-10-13
1632 windows (0 with uncertain resolution, excluded from grading) · 19280 paper trades
model Brier t60 0.0455market Brier t60 0.0436lead corr 0.68lead hit 76%
Strategies this night (bootstrap 95% CI · ● = clear of zero)
| strategy | n | win | P&L $ | /trade | 95% CI ¢/trade | max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEAD3 | 1475 | 49% | +125.89 | +8.5¢ | [+6.2 ; +10.9] | 9.83 |
| COMBO | 1537 | 47% | +106.35 | +6.9¢ | [+4.6 ; +9.3] | 12.18 |
| EDGE8 | 1359 | 41% | +59.12 | +4.4¢ | [+2.0 ; +6.9] | 16.84 |
| IVRV | 1269 | 63% | +58.58 | +4.6¢ | [+2.0 ; +7.3] | 22.01 |
| EDGE6 | 1531 | 44% | +58.57 | +3.8¢ | [+1.5 ; +6.2] | 18.27 |
| EDGE4_EARLY | 1583 | 47% | +56.94 | +3.6¢ | [+1.2 ; +6.0] | 16.82 |
| EDGE4 | 1617 | 47% | +56.88 | +3.5¢ | [+1.2 ; +5.8] | 16.83 |
| EDGE4_T | 1618 | 54% | +41.54 | +2.6¢ | [+0.3 ; +5.0] | 41.47 |
| EDGE8_BUILT | 1275 | 37% | +32.48 | +2.5¢ | [+0.1 ; +5.0] | 18.40 |
| EDGE12 | 879 | 33% | +22.10 | +2.5¢ | [−0.5 ; +5.3] | 16.74 |
| EDGE2 | 1631 | 46% | +16.98 | +1.0¢ | [−1.4 ; +3.4] | 38.96 |
| EDGE12_BUILT | 811 | 30% | +12.83 | +1.6¢ | [−1.4 ; +4.7] | 18.09 |
| CTRL_RND | 1422 | 51% | +6.48 | +0.5¢ | [−1.6 ; +2.5] | 9.58 |
| CTRL_FAV30 | 231 | 91% | −5.35 | −2.3¢ | [−5.5 ; +0.5] | 7.48 |
| EDGE4_LATE | 1042 | 24% | −21.16 | −2.0¢ | [−4.2 ; +0.2] | 24.92 |
Trades simulated at the book's real ask, at most 1 trade per strategy per window, never in the last 20 seconds. Controls serve as the comparison baseline.