2026-10-18
1632 windows (0 with uncertain resolution, excluded from grading) · 19099 paper trades
model Brier t60 0.0505market Brier t60 0.0488lead corr 0.65lead hit 68%
Strategies this night (bootstrap 95% CI · ● = clear of zero)
| strategy | n | win | P&L $ | /trade | 95% CI ¢/trade | max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LEAD3 | 1355 | 43% | +44.66 | +3.3¢ | [+1.0 ; +5.7] | 8.69 |
| COMBO | 1489 | 42% | +42.64 | +2.9¢ | [+0.6 ; +5.2] | 10.15 |
| IVRV | 1200 | 62% | +28.61 | +2.4¢ | [−0.2 ; +5.1] | 10.73 |
| EDGE8_BUILT | 1252 | 36% | +25.90 | +2.1¢ | [−0.4 ; +4.6] | 9.89 |
| EDGE12 | 876 | 34% | +22.32 | +2.5¢ | [−0.3 ; +5.6] | 6.88 |
| EDGE12_BUILT | 802 | 32% | +20.30 | +2.5¢ | [−0.5 ; +5.6] | 7.72 |
| EDGE4_T | 1607 | 51% | +10.24 | +0.6¢ | [−1.7 ; +2.9] | 28.28 |
| EDGE4_LATE | 1044 | 27% | +6.57 | +0.6¢ | [−1.6 ; +3.0] | 12.77 |
| EDGE8 | 1352 | 36% | +3.78 | +0.3¢ | [−2.1 ; +2.6] | 19.21 |
| CTRL_FAV30 | 268 | 93% | −0.53 | −0.2¢ | [−3.0 ; +2.5] | 3.05 |
| CTRL_RND | 1463 | 51% | −14.21 | −1.0¢ | [−2.9 ; +1.0] | 34.34 |
| EDGE6 | 1548 | 38% | −23.43 | −1.5¢ | [−3.8 ; +0.7] | 43.33 |
| EDGE4 | 1624 | 40% | −44.47 | −2.7¢ | [−4.9 ; −0.4] | 61.34 |
| EDGE4_EARLY | 1588 | 40% | −46.67 | −2.9¢ | [−5.2 ; −0.7] | 63.54 |
| EDGE2 | 1631 | 41% | −58.47 | −3.6¢ | [−5.9 ; −1.2] | 71.03 |
Trades simulated at the book's real ask, at most 1 trade per strategy per window, never in the last 20 seconds. Controls serve as the comparison baseline.