2026-09-04
1632 windows (0 with uncertain resolution, excluded from grading) · 19053 paper trades
model Brier t60 0.0512market Brier t60 0.0492lead corr 0.62lead hit 72%
Strategies this night (bootstrap 95% CI · ● = clear of zero)
| strategy | n | win | P&L $ | /trade | 95% CI ¢/trade | max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDGE8 | 1326 | 47% | +99.94 | +7.5¢ | [+5.0 ; +10.1] | 12.86 |
| COMBO | 1480 | 48% | +95.73 | +6.5¢ | [+4.0 ; +8.8] | 11.43 |
| LEAD3 | 1424 | 50% | +94.45 | +6.6¢ | [+4.2 ; +9.0] | 12.34 |
| EDGE12 | 862 | 46% | +93.00 | +10.8¢ | [+7.8 ; +13.9] | 5.32 |
| EDGE8_BUILT | 1204 | 44% | +80.27 | +6.7¢ | [+4.0 ; +9.2] | 10.69 |
| EDGE6 | 1517 | 46% | +75.79 | +5.0¢ | [+2.6 ; +7.4] | 15.82 |
| EDGE4_T | 1603 | 57% | +62.73 | +3.9¢ | [+1.6 ; +6.4] | 17.10 |
| EDGE12_BUILT | 734 | 43% | +59.19 | +8.1¢ | [+4.8 ; +11.2] | 5.34 |
| EDGE4_EARLY | 1547 | 47% | +48.52 | +3.1¢ | [+0.8 ; +5.6] | 17.49 |
| EDGE4 | 1614 | 47% | +45.91 | +2.8¢ | [+0.4 ; +5.2] | 18.92 |
| IVRV | 1265 | 62% | +18.75 | +1.5¢ | [−1.1 ; +3.9] | 30.40 |
| EDGE2 | 1632 | 46% | +3.77 | +0.2¢ | [−2.2 ; +2.8] | 18.35 |
| EDGE4_LATE | 1030 | 35% | +2.80 | +0.3¢ | [−2.2 ; +2.6] | 17.95 |
| CTRL_FAV30 | 338 | 96% | +1.88 | +0.6¢ | [−1.6 ; +2.5] | 1.94 |
| CTRL_RND | 1477 | 52% | −0.82 | −0.1¢ | [−2.1 ; +1.9] | 16.00 |
Trades simulated at the book's real ask, at most 1 trade per strategy per window, never in the last 20 seconds. Controls serve as the comparison baseline.