2026-09-27
1632 windows (0 with uncertain resolution, excluded from grading) · 19372 paper trades
model Brier t60 0.0315market Brier t60 0.0291lead corr 0.64lead hit 58%
Strategies this night (bootstrap 95% CI · ● = clear of zero)
| strategy | n | win | P&L $ | /trade | 95% CI ¢/trade | max DD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDGE12 | 966 | 46% | +102.47 | +10.6¢ | [+7.5 ; +13.5] | 8.84 |
| EDGE12_BUILT | 857 | 45% | +87.55 | +10.2¢ | [+7.1 ; +13.1] | 7.54 |
| LEAD3 | 1432 | 47% | +55.18 | +3.9¢ | [+1.4 ; +6.4] | 15.70 |
| IVRV | 1348 | 63% | +41.53 | +3.1¢ | [+0.6 ; +5.6] | 13.58 |
| COMBO | 1517 | 45% | +39.71 | +2.6¢ | [+0.2 ; +5.0] | 9.62 |
| EDGE8_BUILT | 1283 | 41% | +38.01 | +3.0¢ | [+0.6 ; +5.5] | 8.87 |
| EDGE6 | 1540 | 44% | +33.77 | +2.2¢ | [−0.1 ; +4.4] | 15.40 |
| EDGE8 | 1389 | 41% | +30.94 | +2.2¢ | [−0.1 ; +4.7] | 13.62 |
| EDGE4_T | 1620 | 52% | +8.81 | +0.5¢ | [−1.8 ; +2.9] | 30.90 |
| EDGE4 | 1615 | 44% | +7.86 | +0.5¢ | [−1.7 ; +2.8] | 21.57 |
| EDGE4_LATE | 923 | 33% | +7.04 | +0.8¢ | [−1.7 ; +3.2] | 10.38 |
| EDGE4_EARLY | 1591 | 44% | +5.00 | +0.3¢ | [−2.1 ; +2.8] | 23.46 |
| CTRL_FAV30 | 223 | 93% | −3.11 | −1.4¢ | [−4.5 ; +1.4] | 6.30 |
| EDGE2 | 1630 | 44% | −28.69 | −1.8¢ | [−4.1 ; +0.7] | 43.26 |
| CTRL_RND | 1438 | 49% | −32.32 | −2.2¢ | [−4.2 ; −0.3] | 38.58 |
Trades simulated at the book's real ask, at most 1 trade per strategy per window, never in the last 20 seconds. Controls serve as the comparison baseline.