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Bitcoin: what Polymarket prices imply, against what happened

3 Bitcoin markets (5-minute, 15-minute and hourly), 75 nights from Aug 18, 2026 to Nov 1, 2026. Implied volatility is read at mid-window from the order-book mid and the pricer that grades our track record.
5-minute 0.80×15-minute 0.89×hourly 0.94×nights 75figures as of 2026-11-02 12:54 UTC

What we measured

What then happened — on the 5-minute and 15-minute windows kept, the variance the mid-window price implied for the remaining half-window was 1.00 × the variance that then happened (95% CI 0.96–1.04) and 1.01 × the variance that then happened (95% CI 0.91–1.11) — the interval contains 1 in every case. This comparison does not depend on the law used to invert the price.

Across 3 Bitcoin markets, the mid-window implied volatility (normal inversion) is 0.80 × realized on the 5-minute market (95% CI 0.79–0.80, n = 10,139), 0.89 × realized on the 15-minute market (95% CI 0.88–0.90, n = 4,152) and 0.94 × realized on the hourly market (95% CI 0.93–0.96, n = 1,138). The three durations sit within 0.15 of each other.

Through the Student-t (ν = 4) inversion the same Bitcoin prices read 1.02 × (5-minute), 1.15 × (15-minute) and 1.22 × (hourly) — at or above realized.

In levels: implied 22.6% (5-minute), 24.7% (15-minute) and 25.9% (hourly) against trailing realized 27.8%, 27.2% and 27.5%, annualized 24/7.

Stability: ratio on the first and second halves of the period — 0.82 / 0.77 (5-minute), 0.91 / 0.88 (15-minute) and 0.94 / 0.95 (hourly).

Highest and lowest nightly ratios — 5-minute: 0.90 on Sep 2, 2026 (n = 114), 0.53 on Oct 3, 2026 (n = 111), 15-minute: 1.12 on Sep 13, 2026 (n = 58), 0.78 on Oct 28, 2026 (n = 53) and hourly: 0.99 on week 2026-W41 (n = 112), 0.87 on week 2026-W34 (n = 74).

Share of windows with Bitcoin price and spot on opposite sides of the price to beat (excluded as "side"): 1.0% (5-minute), 0.8% (15-minute) and 0.2% (hourly); above 50% in 26% of 5-minute windows, 35% of 15-minute windows and 40% of hourly windows the implied σ exceeded the trailing realized σ.

Variance ratio on the two halves — 1.01 / 0.98 (5-minute) and 0.99 / 1.06 (15-minute); realized-vs-realized check (resolution series against 1-minute candles) 0.99 and 0.99.

Windows kept by the price band: 47% of 21,436 (5-minute), 58% of 7,136 (15-minute) and 63% of 1,799 (hourly); the rest sat too close to 50¢ or too close to 0 or 1 for a stable inversion.

Whole period and two halves — implied ÷ trailing realized, median per window
marketkeptnormal [95% CI]Student-tfirst halfsecond halfvariance ratio, what followed
5-minute10,1390.80 [0.79; 0.80]1.020.82 (n 4,981)0.77 (n 5,158)1.00 [0.96; 1.04]
15-minute4,1520.89 [0.88; 0.90]1.150.91 (n 2,061)0.88 (n 2,091)1.01 [0.91; 1.11]
hourly1,1380.94 [0.93; 0.96]1.220.94 (n 539)0.95 (n 599)—

Over time

Bitcoin 5-minute — implied ÷ realized per night; green = normal inversion with its 95% band, dashed = Student-t; dotted amber = 1. Cells with fewer than 30 windows are not drawn.
0.410.600.800.991.1908-1808-2909-0909-2010-0110-1210-2310-312026-08-18 · normal 0.76 (95% CI 0.64–0.83) · Student-t 0.97 · n = 992026-08-19 · normal 0.85 (95% CI 0.75–0.91) · Student-t 1.07 · n = 1062026-08-20 · normal 0.75 (95% CI 0.70–0.80) · Student-t 0.97 · n = 1272026-08-21 · normal 0.79 (95% CI 0.73–0.88) · Student-t 1.01 · n = 1402026-08-22 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.77–0.88) · Student-t 1.05 · n = 1372026-08-23 · normal 0.77 (95% CI 0.70–0.84) · Student-t 0.98 · n = 1342026-08-24 · normal 0.87 (95% CI 0.81–0.95) · Student-t 1.13 · n = 1212026-08-25 · normal 0.87 (95% CI 0.79–0.94) · Student-t 1.13 · n = 1402026-08-26 · normal 0.88 (95% CI 0.81–0.92) · Student-t 1.11 · n = 1042026-08-27 · normal 0.80 (95% CI 0.74–0.84) · Student-t 1.02 · n = 1352026-08-28 · normal 0.83 (95% CI 0.76–0.87) · Student-t 1.05 · n = 1392026-08-29 · normal 0.75 (95% CI 0.70–0.81) · Student-t 0.98 · n = 1332026-08-30 · normal 0.77 (95% CI 0.74–0.84) · Student-t 0.99 · n = 1352026-08-31 · normal 0.86 (95% CI 0.82–0.93) · Student-t 1.12 · n = 1132026-09-01 · normal 0.77 (95% CI 0.72–0.84) · Student-t 0.98 · n = 1222026-09-02 · normal 0.90 (95% CI 0.80–0.96) · Student-t 1.13 · n = 1142026-09-03 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.74–0.89) · Student-t 1.06 · n = 1202026-09-04 · normal 0.78 (95% CI 0.75–0.84) · Student-t 1.00 · n = 1382026-09-05 · normal 0.76 (95% CI 0.70–0.83) · Student-t 0.99 · n = 1442026-09-06 · normal 0.83 (95% CI 0.75–0.91) · Student-t 1.07 · n = 1342026-09-07 · normal 0.81 (95% CI 0.77–0.91) · Student-t 1.05 · n = 1622026-09-08 · normal 0.89 (95% CI 0.84–0.95) · Student-t 1.13 · n = 1552026-09-09 · normal 0.83 (95% CI 0.78–0.90) · Student-t 1.08 · n = 1552026-09-10 · normal 0.87 (95% CI 0.81–0.92) · Student-t 1.11 · n = 1492026-09-11 · normal 0.86 (95% CI 0.82–0.90) · Student-t 1.11 · n = 1592026-09-12 · normal 0.81 (95% CI 0.71–0.91) · Student-t 1.04 · n = 1452026-09-13 · normal 0.80 (95% CI 0.72–0.84) · Student-t 1.02 · n = 1362026-09-14 · normal 0.76 (95% CI 0.71–0.81) · Student-t 0.98 · n = 1372026-09-15 · normal 0.85 (95% CI 0.78–0.90) · Student-t 1.08 · n = 1452026-09-16 · normal 0.78 (95% CI 0.72–0.83) · Student-t 1.01 · n = 1412026-09-17 · normal 0.85 (95% CI 0.80–0.90) · Student-t 1.09 · n = 1302026-09-18 · normal 0.80 (95% CI 0.74–0.86) · Student-t 1.00 · n = 1412026-09-19 · normal 0.79 (95% CI 0.73–0.90) · Student-t 1.02 · n = 1322026-09-20 · normal 0.80 (95% CI 0.72–0.84) · Student-t 1.00 · n = 1352026-09-21 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.74–0.86) · Student-t 1.04 · n = 1322026-09-22 · normal 0.88 (95% CI 0.84–0.92) · Student-t 1.11 · n = 1472026-09-23 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.76–0.89) · Student-t 1.06 · n = 1452026-09-24 · normal 0.84 (95% CI 0.78–0.88) · Student-t 1.08 · n = 1412026-09-25 · normal 0.73 (95% CI 0.68–0.79) · Student-t 0.95 · n = 1412026-09-26 · normal 0.72 (95% CI 0.66–0.82) · Student-t 0.94 · n = 1292026-09-27 · normal 0.74 (95% CI 0.65–0.82) · Student-t 0.97 · n = 1102026-09-28 · normal 0.77 (95% CI 0.71–0.81) · Student-t 0.98 · n = 1352026-09-29 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.77–0.86) · Student-t 1.05 · n = 1342026-09-30 · normal 0.84 (95% CI 0.78–0.88) · Student-t 1.09 · n = 1422026-10-01 · normal 0.80 (95% CI 0.73–0.86) · Student-t 1.03 · n = 1452026-10-02 · normal 0.84 (95% CI 0.74–0.89) · Student-t 1.08 · n = 1542026-10-03 · normal 0.53 (95% CI 0.46–0.64) · Student-t 0.68 · n = 1112026-10-04 · normal 0.64 (95% CI 0.53–0.75) · Student-t 0.82 · n = 1192026-10-05 · normal 0.68 (95% CI 0.64–0.75) · Student-t 0.88 · n = 1352026-10-06 · normal 0.74 (95% CI 0.70–0.82) · Student-t 0.94 · n = 1402026-10-07 · normal 0.78 (95% CI 0.72–0.85) · Student-t 1.01 · n = 1362026-10-08 · normal 0.85 (95% CI 0.82–0.89) · Student-t 1.10 · n = 1372026-10-09 · normal 0.79 (95% CI 0.73–0.86) · Student-t 1.00 · n = 1392026-10-10 · normal 0.66 (95% CI 0.58–0.73) · Student-t 0.84 · n = 1292026-10-11 · normal 0.55 (95% CI 0.50–0.65) · Student-t 0.70 · n = 1172026-10-12 · normal 0.72 (95% CI 0.68–0.76) · Student-t 0.92 · n = 1312026-10-13 · normal 0.79 (95% CI 0.72–0.83) · Student-t 1.02 · n = 1422026-10-14 · normal 0.79 (95% CI 0.74–0.87) · Student-t 1.03 · n = 1462026-10-15 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.76–0.87) · Student-t 1.04 · n = 1402026-10-16 · normal 0.79 (95% CI 0.72–0.84) · Student-t 1.00 · n = 1362026-10-17 · normal 0.68 (95% CI 0.64–0.74) · Student-t 0.87 · n = 1382026-10-18 · normal 0.78 (95% CI 0.72–0.85) · Student-t 1.00 · n = 1262026-10-19 · normal 0.74 (95% CI 0.69–0.83) · Student-t 0.97 · n = 1272026-10-20 · normal 0.81 (95% CI 0.77–0.87) · Student-t 1.06 · n = 1322026-10-21 · normal 0.81 (95% CI 0.77–0.85) · Student-t 1.04 · n = 1572026-10-22 · normal 0.88 (95% CI 0.82–0.91) · Student-t 1.12 · n = 1582026-10-23 · normal 0.78 (95% CI 0.74–0.83) · Student-t 1.01 · n = 1382026-10-24 · normal 0.75 (95% CI 0.66–0.83) · Student-t 0.95 · n = 1282026-10-25 · normal 0.70 (95% CI 0.62–0.82) · Student-t 0.91 · n = 1372026-10-26 · normal 0.78 (95% CI 0.75–0.83) · Student-t 1.01 · n = 1412026-10-27 · normal 0.81 (95% CI 0.73–0.85) · Student-t 1.03 · n = 1232026-10-28 · normal 0.76 (95% CI 0.69–0.83) · Student-t 0.96 · n = 1472026-10-29 · normal 0.81 (95% CI 0.74–0.84) · Student-t 1.04 · n = 1302026-10-30 · normal 0.81 (95% CI 0.75–0.86) · Student-t 1.03 · n = 1492026-10-31 · normal 0.78 (95% CI 0.72–0.84) · Student-t 1.02 · n = 138Student-t= realizednormal
Bitcoin 15-minute — implied ÷ realized per night; green = normal inversion with its 95% band, dashed = Student-t; dotted amber = 1. Cells with fewer than 30 windows are not drawn.
0.620.841.061.281.5008-1808-2909-0909-2010-0110-1210-2310-312026-08-18 · normal 0.90 (95% CI 0.79–1.06) · Student-t 1.14 · n = 382026-08-19 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.74–0.89) · Student-t 1.04 · n = 512026-08-20 · normal 0.86 (95% CI 0.79–0.89) · Student-t 1.07 · n = 462026-08-21 · normal 0.80 (95% CI 0.76–0.88) · Student-t 1.02 · n = 612026-08-22 · normal 0.87 (95% CI 0.82–0.92) · Student-t 1.11 · n = 542026-08-23 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.76–0.89) · Student-t 1.06 · n = 622026-08-24 · normal 0.87 (95% CI 0.80–0.95) · Student-t 1.11 · n = 562026-08-25 · normal 0.86 (95% CI 0.77–0.92) · Student-t 1.12 · n = 542026-08-26 · normal 0.93 (95% CI 0.87–1.02) · Student-t 1.20 · n = 442026-08-27 · normal 0.88 (95% CI 0.82–1.02) · Student-t 1.11 · n = 582026-08-28 · normal 0.91 (95% CI 0.85–1.02) · Student-t 1.19 · n = 552026-08-29 · normal 0.86 (95% CI 0.82–0.96) · Student-t 1.11 · n = 612026-08-30 · normal 0.85 (95% CI 0.75–0.96) · Student-t 1.07 · n = 592026-08-31 · normal 0.88 (95% CI 0.84–0.97) · Student-t 1.11 · n = 532026-09-01 · normal 0.81 (95% CI 0.75–0.92) · Student-t 1.06 · n = 402026-09-02 · normal 1.01 (95% CI 0.91–1.14) · Student-t 1.32 · n = 422026-09-03 · normal 0.83 (95% CI 0.78–0.93) · Student-t 1.09 · n = 522026-09-04 · normal 0.90 (95% CI 0.83–1.01) · Student-t 1.16 · n = 592026-09-05 · normal 0.97 (95% CI 0.87–1.08) · Student-t 1.26 · n = 752026-09-06 · normal 1.07 (95% CI 0.95–1.14) · Student-t 1.39 · n = 682026-09-07 · normal 1.02 (95% CI 0.93–1.12) · Student-t 1.32 · n = 612026-09-08 · normal 0.92 (95% CI 0.82–0.96) · Student-t 1.15 · n = 532026-09-09 · normal 0.99 (95% CI 0.92–1.05) · Student-t 1.27 · n = 542026-09-10 · normal 0.95 (95% CI 0.91–1.04) · Student-t 1.22 · n = 622026-09-11 · normal 0.96 (95% CI 0.84–1.08) · Student-t 1.21 · n = 642026-09-12 · normal 0.98 (95% CI 0.91–1.22) · Student-t 1.27 · n = 742026-09-13 · normal 1.12 (95% CI 0.96–1.19) · Student-t 1.44 · n = 582026-09-14 · normal 0.85 (95% CI 0.80–0.98) · Student-t 1.12 · n = 572026-09-15 · normal 0.94 (95% CI 0.87–0.98) · Student-t 1.21 · n = 552026-09-16 · normal 0.99 (95% CI 0.94–1.05) · Student-t 1.29 · n = 552026-09-17 · normal 0.88 (95% CI 0.83–0.95) · Student-t 1.13 · n = 542026-09-18 · normal 0.87 (95% CI 0.80–0.94) · Student-t 1.11 · n = 602026-09-19 · normal 0.99 (95% CI 0.87–1.07) · Student-t 1.24 · n = 542026-09-20 · normal 0.97 (95% CI 0.88–1.04) · Student-t 1.28 · n = 562026-09-21 · normal 0.83 (95% CI 0.75–0.92) · Student-t 1.07 · n = 472026-09-22 · normal 0.94 (95% CI 0.87–1.06) · Student-t 1.22 · n = 612026-09-23 · normal 0.92 (95% CI 0.86–1.03) · Student-t 1.18 · n = 482026-09-24 · normal 0.89 (95% CI 0.80–0.93) · Student-t 1.15 · n = 552026-09-25 · normal 0.86 (95% CI 0.80–0.91) · Student-t 1.13 · n = 492026-09-26 · normal 0.92 (95% CI 0.86–1.02) · Student-t 1.19 · n = 622026-09-27 · normal 0.86 (95% CI 0.77–0.98) · Student-t 1.13 · n = 472026-09-28 · normal 0.90 (95% CI 0.84–0.95) · Student-t 1.18 · n = 552026-09-29 · normal 0.90 (95% CI 0.86–0.93) · Student-t 1.14 · n = 462026-09-30 · normal 1.00 (95% CI 0.84–1.08) · Student-t 1.27 · n = 522026-10-01 · normal 0.94 (95% CI 0.83–1.04) · Student-t 1.21 · n = 572026-10-02 · normal 0.86 (95% CI 0.76–0.93) · Student-t 1.10 · n = 562026-10-03 · normal 0.89 (95% CI 0.84–1.03) · Student-t 1.17 · n = 572026-10-04 · normal 0.87 (95% CI 0.81–1.01) · Student-t 1.13 · n = 632026-10-05 · normal 0.93 (95% CI 0.85–0.95) · Student-t 1.19 · n = 582026-10-06 · normal 0.91 (95% CI 0.87–0.98) · Student-t 1.18 · n = 602026-10-07 · normal 0.92 (95% CI 0.89–1.03) · Student-t 1.21 · n = 502026-10-08 · normal 0.88 (95% CI 0.81–0.98) · Student-t 1.12 · n = 532026-10-09 · normal 0.92 (95% CI 0.83–1.09) · Student-t 1.19 · n = 522026-10-10 · normal 0.98 (95% CI 0.82–1.15) · Student-t 1.27 · n = 642026-10-11 · normal 0.89 (95% CI 0.80–1.05) · Student-t 1.15 · n = 572026-10-12 · normal 0.83 (95% CI 0.74–0.89) · Student-t 1.07 · n = 532026-10-13 · normal 0.83 (95% CI 0.75–0.89) · Student-t 1.08 · n = 502026-10-14 · normal 0.86 (95% CI 0.79–0.92) · Student-t 1.13 · n = 642026-10-15 · normal 0.89 (95% CI 0.82–0.96) · Student-t 1.15 · n = 622026-10-16 · normal 0.78 (95% CI 0.74–0.87) · Student-t 1.00 · n = 542026-10-17 · normal 0.94 (95% CI 0.87–1.02) · Student-t 1.21 · n = 642026-10-18 · normal 0.88 (95% CI 0.79–1.00) · Student-t 1.14 · n = 602026-10-19 · normal 0.87 (95% CI 0.75–0.95) · Student-t 1.12 · n = 522026-10-20 · normal 0.80 (95% CI 0.74–0.88) · Student-t 1.02 · n = 472026-10-21 · normal 0.81 (95% CI 0.77–0.90) · Student-t 1.06 · n = 592026-10-22 · normal 0.85 (95% CI 0.75–0.90) · Student-t 1.09 · n = 502026-10-23 · normal 0.83 (95% CI 0.77–0.90) · Student-t 1.09 · n = 572026-10-24 · normal 1.02 (95% CI 0.82–1.11) · Student-t 1.31 · n = 512026-10-25 · normal 0.84 (95% CI 0.68–0.92) · Student-t 1.11 · n = 512026-10-26 · normal 0.88 (95% CI 0.76–0.94) · Student-t 1.15 · n = 532026-10-27 · normal 0.86 (95% CI 0.77–0.91) · Student-t 1.11 · n = 632026-10-28 · normal 0.78 (95% CI 0.75–0.95) · Student-t 1.01 · n = 532026-10-29 · normal 0.81 (95% CI 0.74–0.95) · Student-t 1.05 · n = 522026-10-30 · normal 0.81 (95% CI 0.73–0.89) · Student-t 1.06 · n = 462026-10-31 · normal 0.91 (95% CI 0.82–1.09) · Student-t 1.19 · n = 57Student-t= realizednormal
Bitcoin hourly — implied ÷ realized per ISO week; green = normal inversion with its 95% band, dashed = Student-t; dotted amber = 1. Cells with fewer than 30 windows are not drawn.
0.770.911.041.181.32W34W36W38W40W42W442026-W34 · normal 0.87 (95% CI 0.81–0.95) · Student-t 1.14 · n = 742026-W35 · normal 0.97 (95% CI 0.93–1.01) · Student-t 1.25 · n = 1022026-W36 · normal 0.96 (95% CI 0.90–1.00) · Student-t 1.23 · n = 942026-W37 · normal 0.94 (95% CI 0.86–0.98) · Student-t 1.22 · n = 1122026-W38 · normal 0.94 (95% CI 0.87–0.98) · Student-t 1.19 · n = 1182026-W39 · normal 0.97 (95% CI 0.93–1.06) · Student-t 1.26 · n = 1092026-W40 · normal 0.97 (95% CI 0.90–1.02) · Student-t 1.25 · n = 1152026-W41 · normal 0.99 (95% CI 0.92–1.05) · Student-t 1.28 · n = 1122026-W42 · normal 0.93 (95% CI 0.88–0.98) · Student-t 1.23 · n = 1042026-W43 · normal 0.92 (95% CI 0.85–0.99) · Student-t 1.20 · n = 1012026-W44 · normal 0.92 (95% CI 0.86–0.95) · Student-t 1.19 · n = 97Student-t= realizednormal

By hour of the day

By hour of the day (UTC, window open): the ratio differs between hours on 5-minute, 15-minute and hourly (Kruskal–Wallis p < 0.001). 5-minute: highest at 13:00 (0.90), lowest at 2:00 (0.72), 15-minute: highest at 0:00 (1.10), lowest at 15:00 (0.77) and hourly: highest at 13:00 (1.46), lowest at 15:00 (0.72).

5-minute — median ratio by UTC hour of window open (amber above 1, green below).
0.700.810.921.030:00 UTC · ratio 0.89 · n = 4100h1:00 UTC · ratio 0.81 · n = 4052:00 UTC · ratio 0.72 · n = 4343:00 UTC · ratio 0.76 · n = 3953h4:00 UTC · ratio 0.78 · n = 3975:00 UTC · ratio 0.78 · n = 3926:00 UTC · ratio 0.79 · n = 4006h7:00 UTC · ratio 0.78 · n = 3988:00 UTC · ratio 0.78 · n = 3989:00 UTC · ratio 0.75 · n = 4289h10:00 UTC · ratio 0.77 · n = 41711:00 UTC · ratio 0.81 · n = 42712:00 UTC · ratio 0.85 · n = 39912h13:00 UTC · ratio 0.90 · n = 43814:00 UTC · ratio 0.80 · n = 44215:00 UTC · ratio 0.75 · n = 45215h16:00 UTC · ratio 0.77 · n = 43717:00 UTC · ratio 0.82 · n = 48018:00 UTC · ratio 0.80 · n = 42418h19:00 UTC · ratio 0.81 · n = 43220:00 UTC · ratio 0.79 · n = 44521:00 UTC · ratio 0.80 · n = 42121h22:00 UTC · ratio 0.78 · n = 42923:00 UTC · ratio 0.80 · n = 439
15-minute — median ratio by UTC hour of window open (amber above 1, green below).
0.730.871.001.140:00 UTC · ratio 1.10 · n = 1700h1:00 UTC · ratio 1.01 · n = 1642:00 UTC · ratio 0.84 · n = 1783:00 UTC · ratio 0.89 · n = 1803h4:00 UTC · ratio 0.87 · n = 1795:00 UTC · ratio 0.97 · n = 1606:00 UTC · ratio 0.91 · n = 1856h7:00 UTC · ratio 0.91 · n = 1608:00 UTC · ratio 0.91 · n = 1569:00 UTC · ratio 0.78 · n = 1679h10:00 UTC · ratio 0.86 · n = 17011:00 UTC · ratio 0.88 · n = 17612:00 UTC · ratio 0.98 · n = 17312h13:00 UTC · ratio 1.02 · n = 16214:00 UTC · ratio 0.88 · n = 15115:00 UTC · ratio 0.77 · n = 18815h16:00 UTC · ratio 0.81 · n = 17917:00 UTC · ratio 0.84 · n = 17918:00 UTC · ratio 0.84 · n = 16018h19:00 UTC · ratio 0.88 · n = 18220:00 UTC · ratio 0.88 · n = 18221:00 UTC · ratio 0.91 · n = 18021h22:00 UTC · ratio 0.95 · n = 18523:00 UTC · ratio 0.92 · n = 186
hourly — median ratio by UTC hour of window open (amber above 1, green below).
0.640.941.241.530:00 UTC · ratio 1.09 · n = 460h1:00 UTC · ratio 0.99 · n = 512:00 UTC · ratio 0.83 · n = 403:00 UTC · ratio 0.79 · n = 443h4:00 UTC · ratio 0.88 · n = 475:00 UTC · ratio 0.96 · n = 476:00 UTC · ratio 0.87 · n = 456h7:00 UTC · ratio 0.92 · n = 468:00 UTC · ratio 0.98 · n = 399:00 UTC · ratio 0.98 · n = 409h10:00 UTC · ratio 0.91 · n = 5311:00 UTC · ratio 0.95 · n = 5112:00 UTC · ratio 1.18 · n = 5012h13:00 UTC · ratio 1.46 · n = 6214:00 UTC · ratio 1.00 · n = 4315:00 UTC · ratio 0.72 · n = 4315h16:00 UTC · ratio 0.80 · n = 4617:00 UTC · ratio 0.84 · n = 5818:00 UTC · ratio 0.89 · n = 4118h19:00 UTC · ratio 0.91 · n = 4720:00 UTC · ratio 0.93 · n = 5221:00 UTC · ratio 0.95 · n = 4921h22:00 UTC · ratio 0.99 · n = 4723:00 UTC · ratio 0.93 · n = 51

Questions

How many Bitcoin windows feed these figures?

10,139 of 21,436 5-minute windows, 4,152 of 7,136 15-minute windows and 1,138 of 1,799 hourly windows — those whose mid-window price sat in the 15%–45% or 55%–85% band, over 75 nights. One minute before the close only 14%, 10% and 8% would remain: that reading is not published.

Are Bitcoin levels (implied 23% against realized 28%) published?

Yes for 5-minute, 15-minute and hourly: the two-decimal spot in the collector's logs rounds to 0.01% of a typical half-window move at Bitcoin's price (about $80689), under the 1% tolerance set in advance.

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Paper results · not financial advice · 18+. Data analytics on Polymarket crypto markets.