Bitcoin Up or Down — hourly
Resolution: the Binance BTC/USDT 1-hour candle, close against open, ties going Up (unchanged on Aug 7, 2026).
What we measured
BTC's realized volatility at the open had a median of 26.9% a year — one standard deviation over 1 hour is about 28.7 bps.
At T−60 s the favourite won 96.0% of 1,655 Bitcoin hourly windows — the third-highest rate of the 4 hourly markets (their average: 96.0%); Bitcoin's 5-minute 92.0% and 15-minute 94.7%.
So the price sat on the losing side 4.0% of the time, 1.0 windows a night, and favourites at 90¢ or more still lost 12 of 1,457 (0.82%).
By price band: 50–60¢ won 46.5% of 43, 60–70¢ won 77.1% of 35, 70–80¢ won 73.3% of 45, 80–90¢ won 84.0% of 75, 90–100¢ won 99.2% of 1,457 (the 90¢+ favourite cost 99¢ on average).
Weighted across bands, outcomes beat prices by +0.1 points: underconfident pricing at T−60 s.
Brier at T−60 s: market 0.0292 (3 of 4 among hourly markets), Student-t model 0.0266, normal model 0.0277 — model ahead by 0.0026.
Up won 50.9% of Bitcoin hourly windows; the roughest night was Oct 4, 2026, favourite beaten in 12.5% of 24, the calmest Oct 9, 2026 at 0.0%.
From mid-window to T−60 s the market's Brier score dropped from 0.1757 to 0.0292.
| favourite priced | windows | won | avg price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60¢ | 43 | 46.5% | 54.3¢ |
| 60–70¢ | 35 | 77.1% | 65.1¢ |
| 70–80¢ | 45 | 73.3% | 75.2¢ |
| 80–90¢ | 75 | 84.0% | 85.0¢ |
| 90–100¢ | 1,457 | 99.2% | 99.0¢ |
Paper results of our public rules (● = 95% CI clear of zero)
Paper results on Bitcoin hourly windows: 20,188 paper trades, 13 rules plus 2 controls (random entry; favourite at T−30 s), 95% intervals as on /performance.
| rule | nights | n | win | avg price | total P&L $ | P&L/trade | 95% CI ¢/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDGE8 | 69 | 1289 | 48% | 43¢ | +61.74 | +4.8¢ | [+2.2 ; +7.3] |
| EDGE8_BUILT | 69 | 1265 | 48% | 43¢ | +55.84 | +4.4¢ | [+1.9 ; +7.0] |
| EDGE12 | 69 | 757 | 47% | 41¢ | +52.28 | +6.9¢ | [+3.6 ; +10.2] |
| LEAD3 | 69 | 1641 | 50% | 47¢ | +49.10 | +3.0¢ | [+0.6 ; +5.3] |
| EDGE6 | 69 | 1529 | 49% | 45¢ | +48.81 | +3.2¢ | [+0.8 ; +5.6] |
| EDGE12_BUILT | 69 | 725 | 46% | 40¢ | +44.82 | +6.2¢ | [+2.9 ; +9.5] |
| COMBO | 69 | 1638 | 50% | 48¢ | +38.86 | +2.4¢ | [+0.0 ; +4.7] |
| IVRV | 69 | 1501 | 59% | 57¢ | +32.91 | +2.2¢ | [−0.3 ; +4.6] |
| EDGE4_T | 69 | 1644 | 55% | 53¢ | +28.54 | +1.7¢ | [−0.6 ; +4.1] |
| EDGE4 | 69 | 1641 | 49% | 47¢ | +18.82 | +1.1¢ | [−1.2 ; +3.5] |
| EDGE4_EARLY | 69 | 1511 | 49% | 48¢ | +14.33 | +0.9¢ | [−1.5 ; +3.4] |
| EDGE2 | 69 | 1654 | 48% | 48¢ | +4.11 | +0.2¢ | [−2.1 ; +2.6] |
| CTRL_FAV30 | 69 | 530 | 95% | 94¢ | +3.03 | +0.6¢ | [−1.3 ; +2.4] |
| EDGE4_LATE | 69 | 1274 | 42% | 42¢ | −4.51 | −0.4¢ | [−2.6 ; +1.9] |
| CTRL_RND | 69 | 1589 | 49% | 49¢ | −8.64 | −0.5¢ | [−2.5 ; +1.5] |
7 of 13 rules clear zero here; highest paper totals: EDGE8 +61.74 $ (1,289 trades, +4.79¢ each), EDGE8_BUILT +55.84 $ (1,265 trades, +4.41¢ each), EDGE12 +52.28 $ (757 trades, +6.91¢ each); CTRL_RND −0.54¢ [−2.55 ; +1.46], n = 1,589.
Last night
Oct 14, 2026: 24 Bitcoin hourly windows graded, favourite beaten in 1 of 24, Brier 0.0313 (market) vs 0.0287 (model).
Full night of Oct 14, 2026 on /performance →Questions
How is the Bitcoin Up or Down hourly market resolved?
Binance BTC/USDT 1-hour candle, close versus open; ties are Up.
What time do Bitcoin hourly markets open and close?
24 a day, on the hour (labelled in US Eastern time).
What is the "price to beat" on Bitcoin hourly markets?
The BTC/USDT candle's open, printed at the top of the hour.
Why does the Bitcoin hourly price jump in the last minute?
A close call turns on the candle's last trades; 67 BTC favourites lost from T−60 s.
Where can I see live Bitcoin hourly probabilities?
The Mispria terminal shows it free for Bitcoin — our model's probability beside the market price, live, on hourly windows as on the other two durations.
Related markets
Data analytics on Polymarket crypto markets — not financial advice, not a solicitation to trade. 18+.