Bitcoin Up or Down — 15 minutes
Resolution: the Chainlink BTC/USD 60-second TWAP at the close against the TWAP at the open, ties going Up — the rule since Aug 7, 2026. The median Bitcoin 15-minute window closed 7.5 bps from its price to beat; 8.9% closed within 1 bp.
What we measured
BTC's realized volatility at the open had a median of 26.6% a year — one standard deviation over 15 minutes is about 14.2 bps, against a median close-to-beat distance of 7.5 bps.
At T−60 s the favourite won 94.7% of 6,618 Bitcoin 15-minute windows — the lowest rate of the 4 15-minute markets (their average: 95.1%); Bitcoin's 5-minute 92.0% and hourly 96.0%.
So the price sat on the losing side 5.3% of the time, 5.1 windows a night, and favourites at 90¢ or more still lost 54 of 5,441 (0.99%).
By price band: 50–60¢ won 55.2% of 259, 60–70¢ won 67.1% of 213, 70–80¢ won 76.0% of 283, 80–90¢ won 89.1% of 422, 90–100¢ won 99.0% of 5,441 (the 90¢+ favourite cost 99¢ on average).
Weighted across bands, outcomes beat prices by +0.6 points: underconfident pricing at T−60 s.
Brier at T−60 s: market 0.0384 (least sharp among 15-minute markets), Student-t model 0.0405, normal model 0.0414 — market ahead by 0.0020.
Up won 50.0% of Bitcoin 15-minute windows; the roughest night was Sep 15, 2026, favourite beaten in 14.6% of 96, the calmest Oct 9, 2026 at 0.0%.
From mid-window to T−60 s the market's Brier score dropped from 0.1609 to 0.0384.
Hour of day matters on this market (χ² test across 24 hours, p = 0.0008): the T−60 s favourite lost 8.3% of windows opening at 18:00 UTC, against 2.5% at 08:00 UTC and 5.3% across all hours.
| favourite priced | windows | won | avg price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60¢ | 259 | 55.2% | 53.8¢ |
| 60–70¢ | 213 | 67.1% | 64.8¢ |
| 70–80¢ | 283 | 76.0% | 75.5¢ |
| 80–90¢ | 422 | 89.1% | 85.6¢ |
| 90–100¢ | 5,441 | 99.0% | 98.8¢ |
Paper results of our public rules (● = 95% CI clear of zero)
Paper results on Bitcoin 15-minute windows: 83,294 paper trades, 13 rules plus 2 controls (random entry; favourite at T−30 s), 95% intervals as on /performance.
| rule | nights | n | win | avg price | total P&L $ | P&L/trade | 95% CI ¢/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDGE12 | 69 | 4123 | 47% | 39¢ | +322.64 | +7.8¢ | [+6.4 ; +9.2] |
| EDGE8 | 69 | 5755 | 48% | 43¢ | +318.86 | +5.5¢ | [+4.3 ; +6.7] |
| LEAD3 | 69 | 6477 | 51% | 46¢ | +315.38 | +4.9¢ | [+3.7 ; +6.0] |
| EDGE6 | 69 | 6339 | 49% | 44¢ | +285.46 | +4.5¢ | [+3.3 ; +5.7] |
| COMBO | 69 | 6468 | 51% | 46¢ | +283.59 | +4.4¢ | [+3.2 ; +5.5] |
| EDGE8_BUILT | 69 | 5566 | 48% | 43¢ | +277.86 | +5.0¢ | [+3.8 ; +6.2] |
| EDGE12_BUILT | 69 | 3868 | 46% | 40¢ | +251.63 | +6.5¢ | [+5.0 ; +8.0] |
| EDGE4_T | 69 | 6600 | 54% | 51¢ | +234.34 | +3.6¢ | [+2.4 ; +4.7] |
| IVRV | 69 | 5901 | 61% | 57¢ | +226.66 | +3.8¢ | [+2.6 ; +5.1] |
| EDGE4 | 69 | 6592 | 49% | 46¢ | +176.37 | +2.7¢ | [+1.5 ; +3.9] |
| EDGE4_EARLY | 69 | 6422 | 49% | 46¢ | +168.40 | +2.6¢ | [+1.4 ; +3.8] |
| EDGE2 | 69 | 6618 | 48% | 47¢ | +65.13 | +1.0¢ | [−0.2 ; +2.2] |
| EDGE4_LATE | 69 | 4996 | 42% | 41¢ | +52.47 | +1.1¢ | [−0.1 ; +2.2] |
| CTRL_FAV30 | 69 | 1256 | 94% | 93¢ | +11.73 | +0.9¢ | [−0.2 ; +2.1] |
| CTRL_RND | 69 | 6313 | 50% | 51¢ | −71.95 | −1.1¢ | [−2.1 ; −0.2] |
11 of 13 rules clear zero here; highest paper totals: EDGE12 +322.64 $ (4,123 trades, +7.83¢ each), EDGE8 +318.86 $ (5,755 trades, +5.54¢ each), LEAD3 +315.38 $ (6,477 trades, +4.87¢ each); CTRL_RND −1.14¢ [−2.12 ; −0.16], n = 6,313.
Last night
Oct 14, 2026: 96 Bitcoin 15-minute windows graded, favourite beaten in 5 of 96, Brier 0.0491 (market) vs 0.0553 (model).
Full night of Oct 14, 2026 on /performance →Questions
How is the Bitcoin Up or Down 15 minutes market resolved?
Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP over 60 seconds, close versus open; ties are Up.
What time do Bitcoin 15-minute markets open and close?
96 a day, at :00, :15, :30 and :45 UTC.
What is the "price to beat" on Bitcoin 15-minute markets?
The BTC/USD TWAP at the window's first second. Typical distance at the close: 7.5 bps (median).
Why does the Bitcoin 15-minute price jump in the last minute?
The final 60 seconds feed the closing average, so each second fixes more of the result and prices run to 0¢ or 100¢; 354 BTC favourites still lost from T−60 s.
Where can I see live Bitcoin 15-minute probabilities?
The Mispria terminal shows it free for Bitcoin — our model's probability beside the market price, live, on 15-minute windows as on the other two durations.
Related markets
Data analytics on Polymarket crypto markets — not financial advice, not a solicitation to trade. 18+.