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Ethereum: what Polymarket prices imply, against what happened

3 Ethereum markets (5-minute, 15-minute and hourly), 75 nights from Aug 18, 2026 to Nov 1, 2026. Implied volatility is read at mid-window from the order-book mid and the pricer that grades our track record.
5-minute 0.80×15-minute 0.81×hourly 0.85×nights 75figures as of 2026-11-02 12:54 UTC

What we measured

What then happened — on the 5-minute and 15-minute windows kept, the variance the mid-window price implied for the remaining half-window was 0.95 × the variance that then happened (95% CI 0.92–0.99) and 0.90 × the variance that then happened (95% CI 0.80–1.01) — with 1 inside the interval on 1 of 2. This comparison does not depend on the law used to invert the price.

Across 3 Ethereum markets, the mid-window implied volatility (normal inversion) is 0.80 × realized on the 5-minute market (95% CI 0.80–0.81, n = 10,533), 0.81 × realized on the 15-minute market (95% CI 0.81–0.82, n = 3,945) and 0.85 × realized on the hourly market (95% CI 0.83–0.86, n = 1,101). The three durations sit within 0.04 of each other.

Through the Student-t (ν = 4) inversion the same Ethereum prices read 1.04 × (5-minute), 1.05 × (15-minute) and 1.10 × (hourly) — at or above realized.

In levels: implied 30.0% (5-minute), 30.6% (15-minute) and 32.5% (hourly) against trailing realized 36.7%, 37.2% and 37.5%, annualized 24/7.

Stability: ratio on the first and second halves of the period — 0.81 / 0.80 (5-minute), 0.82 / 0.81 (15-minute) and 0.84 / 0.85 (hourly).

Highest and lowest nightly ratios — 5-minute: 0.92 on Oct 27, 2026 (n = 136), 0.72 on Oct 11, 2026 (n = 145), 15-minute: 0.98 on Sep 30, 2026 (n = 52), 0.72 on Sep 17, 2026 (n = 48) and hourly: 0.93 on week 2026-W40 (n = 99), 0.79 on week 2026-W38 (n = 109).

Share of windows with Ethereum price and spot on opposite sides of the price to beat (excluded as "side"): 0.5% (5-minute), 0.2% (15-minute) and 0.4% (hourly); above 50% in 24% of 5-minute windows, 21% of 15-minute windows and 23% of hourly windows the implied σ exceeded the trailing realized σ.

Variance ratio on the two halves — 0.97 / 0.94 (5-minute) and 0.83 / 1.02 (15-minute); realized-vs-realized check (resolution series against 1-minute candles) 0.98 and 0.98.

Windows kept by the price band: 49% of 21,428 (5-minute), 55% of 7,134 (15-minute) and 61% of 1,799 (hourly); the rest sat too close to 50¢ or too close to 0 or 1 for a stable inversion.

Whole period and two halves — implied ÷ trailing realized, median per window
marketkeptnormal [95% CI]Student-tfirst halfsecond halfvariance ratio, what followed
5-minute10,5330.80 [0.80; 0.81]1.040.81 (n 5,203)0.80 (n 5,330)0.95 [0.92; 0.99]
15-minute3,9450.81 [0.81; 0.82]1.050.82 (n 1,910)0.81 (n 2,035)0.90 [0.80; 1.01]
hourly1,1010.85 [0.83; 0.86]1.100.84 (n 522)0.85 (n 579)—

Over time

Ethereum 5-minute — implied ÷ realized per night; green = normal inversion with its 95% band, dashed = Student-t; dotted amber = 1. Cells with fewer than 30 windows are not drawn.
0.610.770.921.071.2208-1808-2909-0909-2010-0110-1210-2310-312026-08-18 · normal 0.79 (95% CI 0.72–0.87) · Student-t 1.01 · n = 1142026-08-19 · normal 0.76 (95% CI 0.68–0.84) · Student-t 0.98 · n = 1112026-08-20 · normal 0.76 (95% CI 0.70–0.80) · Student-t 0.99 · n = 1322026-08-21 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.76–0.88) · Student-t 1.06 · n = 1272026-08-22 · normal 0.86 (95% CI 0.81–0.92) · Student-t 1.09 · n = 1512026-08-23 · normal 0.73 (95% CI 0.67–0.82) · Student-t 0.95 · n = 1432026-08-24 · normal 0.90 (95% CI 0.85–0.94) · Student-t 1.16 · n = 1532026-08-25 · normal 0.88 (95% CI 0.84–0.93) · Student-t 1.14 · n = 1382026-08-26 · normal 0.90 (95% CI 0.84–0.96) · Student-t 1.18 · n = 1152026-08-27 · normal 0.77 (95% CI 0.73–0.83) · Student-t 0.99 · n = 1282026-08-28 · normal 0.83 (95% CI 0.76–0.91) · Student-t 1.06 · n = 1312026-08-29 · normal 0.77 (95% CI 0.70–0.82) · Student-t 0.99 · n = 1472026-08-30 · normal 0.76 (95% CI 0.70–0.80) · Student-t 0.97 · n = 1392026-08-31 · normal 0.90 (95% CI 0.84–0.94) · Student-t 1.16 · n = 1222026-09-01 · normal 0.86 (95% CI 0.81–0.93) · Student-t 1.12 · n = 1352026-09-02 · normal 0.87 (95% CI 0.81–0.94) · Student-t 1.11 · n = 1422026-09-03 · normal 0.84 (95% CI 0.78–0.93) · Student-t 1.08 · n = 1332026-09-04 · normal 0.87 (95% CI 0.82–0.92) · Student-t 1.10 · n = 1502026-09-05 · normal 0.83 (95% CI 0.78–0.90) · Student-t 1.05 · n = 1462026-09-06 · normal 0.87 (95% CI 0.81–0.94) · Student-t 1.12 · n = 1392026-09-07 · normal 0.87 (95% CI 0.83–0.93) · Student-t 1.13 · n = 1562026-09-08 · normal 0.84 (95% CI 0.80–0.89) · Student-t 1.08 · n = 1642026-09-09 · normal 0.83 (95% CI 0.79–0.85) · Student-t 1.08 · n = 1612026-09-10 · normal 0.87 (95% CI 0.81–0.91) · Student-t 1.11 · n = 1502026-09-11 · normal 0.75 (95% CI 0.69–0.79) · Student-t 0.97 · n = 1482026-09-12 · normal 0.87 (95% CI 0.80–0.96) · Student-t 1.13 · n = 1832026-09-13 · normal 0.80 (95% CI 0.74–0.85) · Student-t 1.03 · n = 1552026-09-14 · normal 0.76 (95% CI 0.73–0.81) · Student-t 0.98 · n = 1212026-09-15 · normal 0.81 (95% CI 0.76–0.86) · Student-t 1.05 · n = 1432026-09-16 · normal 0.78 (95% CI 0.74–0.82) · Student-t 0.99 · n = 1572026-09-17 · normal 0.78 (95% CI 0.74–0.81) · Student-t 0.99 · n = 1622026-09-18 · normal 0.73 (95% CI 0.70–0.76) · Student-t 0.94 · n = 1402026-09-19 · normal 0.72 (95% CI 0.69–0.77) · Student-t 0.93 · n = 1172026-09-20 · normal 0.74 (95% CI 0.71–0.76) · Student-t 0.95 · n = 1392026-09-21 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.76–0.86) · Student-t 1.05 · n = 1272026-09-22 · normal 0.83 (95% CI 0.79–0.87) · Student-t 1.06 · n = 1412026-09-23 · normal 0.84 (95% CI 0.78–0.89) · Student-t 1.06 · n = 1432026-09-24 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.78–0.88) · Student-t 1.06 · n = 1362026-09-25 · normal 0.80 (95% CI 0.76–0.84) · Student-t 1.04 · n = 1492026-09-26 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.76–0.86) · Student-t 1.05 · n = 1492026-09-27 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.76–0.86) · Student-t 1.05 · n = 1282026-09-28 · normal 0.80 (95% CI 0.75–0.84) · Student-t 1.03 · n = 1412026-09-29 · normal 0.84 (95% CI 0.80–0.88) · Student-t 1.09 · n = 1472026-09-30 · normal 0.90 (95% CI 0.85–0.93) · Student-t 1.16 · n = 1452026-10-01 · normal 0.85 (95% CI 0.80–0.90) · Student-t 1.10 · n = 1542026-10-02 · normal 0.81 (95% CI 0.77–0.87) · Student-t 1.05 · n = 1602026-10-03 · normal 0.86 (95% CI 0.74–0.92) · Student-t 1.10 · n = 1242026-10-04 · normal 0.77 (95% CI 0.72–0.87) · Student-t 1.00 · n = 1392026-10-05 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.78–0.88) · Student-t 1.06 · n = 1412026-10-06 · normal 0.83 (95% CI 0.78–0.93) · Student-t 1.08 · n = 1282026-10-07 · normal 0.74 (95% CI 0.69–0.79) · Student-t 0.95 · n = 1382026-10-08 · normal 0.84 (95% CI 0.76–0.87) · Student-t 1.07 · n = 1182026-10-09 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.76–0.87) · Student-t 1.06 · n = 1372026-10-10 · normal 0.78 (95% CI 0.70–0.83) · Student-t 0.99 · n = 1362026-10-11 · normal 0.72 (95% CI 0.68–0.78) · Student-t 0.94 · n = 1452026-10-12 · normal 0.75 (95% CI 0.69–0.80) · Student-t 0.96 · n = 1382026-10-13 · normal 0.78 (95% CI 0.74–0.83) · Student-t 1.01 · n = 1452026-10-14 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.78–0.89) · Student-t 1.07 · n = 1402026-10-15 · normal 0.79 (95% CI 0.71–0.85) · Student-t 1.02 · n = 1422026-10-16 · normal 0.77 (95% CI 0.72–0.82) · Student-t 0.98 · n = 1502026-10-17 · normal 0.76 (95% CI 0.66–0.80) · Student-t 0.97 · n = 1442026-10-18 · normal 0.77 (95% CI 0.71–0.81) · Student-t 0.98 · n = 1352026-10-19 · normal 0.78 (95% CI 0.75–0.83) · Student-t 1.01 · n = 1352026-10-20 · normal 0.78 (95% CI 0.73–0.83) · Student-t 1.00 · n = 1372026-10-21 · normal 0.78 (95% CI 0.74–0.84) · Student-t 1.01 · n = 1452026-10-22 · normal 0.78 (95% CI 0.74–0.84) · Student-t 1.01 · n = 1522026-10-23 · normal 0.78 (95% CI 0.73–0.83) · Student-t 1.00 · n = 1462026-10-24 · normal 0.77 (95% CI 0.75–0.81) · Student-t 0.98 · n = 1432026-10-25 · normal 0.78 (95% CI 0.75–0.82) · Student-t 1.01 · n = 1312026-10-26 · normal 0.83 (95% CI 0.79–0.87) · Student-t 1.05 · n = 1362026-10-27 · normal 0.92 (95% CI 0.86–0.97) · Student-t 1.16 · n = 1362026-10-28 · normal 0.75 (95% CI 0.70–0.83) · Student-t 0.98 · n = 1212026-10-29 · normal 0.76 (95% CI 0.72–0.82) · Student-t 0.97 · n = 1342026-10-30 · normal 0.81 (95% CI 0.77–0.86) · Student-t 1.05 · n = 1522026-10-31 · normal 0.75 (95% CI 0.67–0.78) · Student-t 0.96 · n = 153= realizedStudent-tnormal
Ethereum 15-minute — implied ÷ realized per night; green = normal inversion with its 95% band, dashed = Student-t; dotted amber = 1. Cells with fewer than 30 windows are not drawn.
0.600.780.961.131.3108-1808-2909-0909-2010-0110-1210-2310-312026-08-18 · normal 0.87 (95% CI 0.78–0.92) · Student-t 1.09 · n = 412026-08-19 · normal 0.77 (95% CI 0.65–0.88) · Student-t 1.01 · n = 442026-08-20 · normal 0.75 (95% CI 0.71–0.81) · Student-t 0.97 · n = 422026-08-21 · normal 0.77 (95% CI 0.70–0.81) · Student-t 1.00 · n = 522026-08-22 · normal 0.83 (95% CI 0.79–0.91) · Student-t 1.08 · n = 512026-08-23 · normal 0.74 (95% CI 0.65–0.81) · Student-t 0.95 · n = 492026-08-24 · normal 0.86 (95% CI 0.80–0.94) · Student-t 1.08 · n = 492026-08-25 · normal 0.83 (95% CI 0.77–0.89) · Student-t 1.09 · n = 512026-08-26 · normal 0.88 (95% CI 0.76–0.95) · Student-t 1.10 · n = 452026-08-27 · normal 0.79 (95% CI 0.71–0.84) · Student-t 1.03 · n = 632026-08-28 · normal 0.85 (95% CI 0.79–0.91) · Student-t 1.10 · n = 502026-08-29 · normal 0.86 (95% CI 0.80–0.96) · Student-t 1.11 · n = 602026-08-30 · normal 0.76 (95% CI 0.69–0.89) · Student-t 0.98 · n = 552026-08-31 · normal 0.80 (95% CI 0.75–0.87) · Student-t 1.03 · n = 452026-09-01 · normal 0.87 (95% CI 0.78–0.92) · Student-t 1.11 · n = 462026-09-02 · normal 0.83 (95% CI 0.79–0.97) · Student-t 1.07 · n = 412026-09-03 · normal 0.80 (95% CI 0.74–0.88) · Student-t 1.04 · n = 492026-09-04 · normal 0.85 (95% CI 0.80–0.93) · Student-t 1.09 · n = 542026-09-05 · normal 0.88 (95% CI 0.80–0.95) · Student-t 1.13 · n = 582026-09-06 · normal 0.89 (95% CI 0.79–0.96) · Student-t 1.13 · n = 572026-09-07 · normal 0.88 (95% CI 0.83–0.93) · Student-t 1.13 · n = 582026-09-08 · normal 0.87 (95% CI 0.83–0.95) · Student-t 1.12 · n = 452026-09-09 · normal 0.78 (95% CI 0.76–0.84) · Student-t 1.03 · n = 572026-09-10 · normal 0.85 (95% CI 0.79–0.98) · Student-t 1.09 · n = 602026-09-11 · normal 0.76 (95% CI 0.70–0.85) · Student-t 0.97 · n = 512026-09-12 · normal 0.86 (95% CI 0.80–0.91) · Student-t 1.11 · n = 612026-09-13 · normal 0.83 (95% CI 0.77–0.92) · Student-t 1.07 · n = 602026-09-14 · normal 0.79 (95% CI 0.73–0.84) · Student-t 1.00 · n = 582026-09-15 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.76–0.87) · Student-t 1.06 · n = 552026-09-16 · normal 0.78 (95% CI 0.71–0.85) · Student-t 1.02 · n = 502026-09-17 · normal 0.72 (95% CI 0.68–0.81) · Student-t 0.93 · n = 482026-09-18 · normal 0.75 (95% CI 0.70–0.82) · Student-t 0.95 · n = 522026-09-19 · normal 0.77 (95% CI 0.66–0.85) · Student-t 0.99 · n = 452026-09-20 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.79–0.89) · Student-t 1.07 · n = 472026-09-21 · normal 0.78 (95% CI 0.73–0.87) · Student-t 0.99 · n = 452026-09-22 · normal 0.85 (95% CI 0.78–0.91) · Student-t 1.09 · n = 612026-09-23 · normal 0.87 (95% CI 0.80–0.92) · Student-t 1.12 · n = 552026-09-24 · normal 0.80 (95% CI 0.76–0.90) · Student-t 1.04 · n = 542026-09-25 · normal 0.79 (95% CI 0.75–0.85) · Student-t 1.05 · n = 502026-09-26 · normal 0.88 (95% CI 0.81–0.91) · Student-t 1.12 · n = 672026-09-27 · normal 0.81 (95% CI 0.78–0.90) · Student-t 1.03 · n = 512026-09-28 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.77–0.85) · Student-t 1.06 · n = 572026-09-29 · normal 0.91 (95% CI 0.84–0.98) · Student-t 1.19 · n = 512026-09-30 · normal 0.98 (95% CI 0.89–1.01) · Student-t 1.26 · n = 522026-10-01 · normal 0.81 (95% CI 0.76–0.87) · Student-t 1.06 · n = 622026-10-02 · normal 0.76 (95% CI 0.71–0.83) · Student-t 0.99 · n = 592026-10-03 · normal 0.92 (95% CI 0.80–0.96) · Student-t 1.16 · n = 482026-10-04 · normal 0.85 (95% CI 0.76–0.95) · Student-t 1.11 · n = 482026-10-05 · normal 0.88 (95% CI 0.80–0.94) · Student-t 1.13 · n = 572026-10-06 · normal 0.90 (95% CI 0.82–1.01) · Student-t 1.15 · n = 602026-10-07 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.77–0.89) · Student-t 1.05 · n = 512026-10-08 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.77–0.98) · Student-t 1.09 · n = 512026-10-09 · normal 0.78 (95% CI 0.74–0.86) · Student-t 1.02 · n = 492026-10-10 · normal 0.80 (95% CI 0.71–0.89) · Student-t 1.02 · n = 512026-10-11 · normal 0.81 (95% CI 0.74–0.90) · Student-t 1.04 · n = 582026-10-12 · normal 0.80 (95% CI 0.71–0.88) · Student-t 1.02 · n = 522026-10-13 · normal 0.75 (95% CI 0.70–0.77) · Student-t 0.96 · n = 552026-10-14 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.76–0.90) · Student-t 1.05 · n = 452026-10-15 · normal 0.77 (95% CI 0.71–0.82) · Student-t 0.98 · n = 542026-10-16 · normal 0.78 (95% CI 0.72–0.86) · Student-t 1.02 · n = 462026-10-17 · normal 0.78 (95% CI 0.72–0.87) · Student-t 1.02 · n = 622026-10-18 · normal 0.79 (95% CI 0.71–0.83) · Student-t 1.01 · n = 502026-10-19 · normal 0.77 (95% CI 0.71–0.80) · Student-t 0.98 · n = 472026-10-20 · normal 0.81 (95% CI 0.70–0.83) · Student-t 1.03 · n = 462026-10-21 · normal 0.78 (95% CI 0.74–0.84) · Student-t 1.02 · n = 542026-10-22 · normal 0.78 (95% CI 0.71–0.84) · Student-t 0.99 · n = 522026-10-23 · normal 0.74 (95% CI 0.72–0.82) · Student-t 0.96 · n = 582026-10-24 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.76–0.90) · Student-t 1.07 · n = 542026-10-25 · normal 0.83 (95% CI 0.69–0.91) · Student-t 1.04 · n = 572026-10-26 · normal 0.80 (95% CI 0.76–0.92) · Student-t 1.05 · n = 532026-10-27 · normal 0.90 (95% CI 0.85–0.97) · Student-t 1.14 · n = 582026-10-28 · normal 0.78 (95% CI 0.74–0.84) · Student-t 1.01 · n = 532026-10-29 · normal 0.79 (95% CI 0.76–0.84) · Student-t 1.02 · n = 562026-10-30 · normal 0.78 (95% CI 0.73–0.87) · Student-t 0.99 · n = 582026-10-31 · normal 0.77 (95% CI 0.71–0.81) · Student-t 0.99 · n = 49= realizedStudent-tnormal
Ethereum hourly — implied ÷ realized per ISO week; green = normal inversion with its 95% band, dashed = Student-t; dotted amber = 1. Cells with fewer than 30 windows are not drawn.
0.710.840.971.101.24W34W36W38W40W42W442026-W34 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.79–0.84) · Student-t 1.06 · n = 782026-W35 · normal 0.88 (95% CI 0.85–0.94) · Student-t 1.14 · n = 972026-W36 · normal 0.87 (95% CI 0.85–0.90) · Student-t 1.12 · n = 912026-W37 · normal 0.81 (95% CI 0.76–0.90) · Student-t 1.04 · n = 972026-W38 · normal 0.79 (95% CI 0.74–0.82) · Student-t 1.01 · n = 1092026-W39 · normal 0.83 (95% CI 0.81–0.91) · Student-t 1.07 · n = 1082026-W40 · normal 0.93 (95% CI 0.88–0.96) · Student-t 1.20 · n = 992026-W41 · normal 0.93 (95% CI 0.85–0.97) · Student-t 1.20 · n = 1152026-W42 · normal 0.81 (95% CI 0.80–0.86) · Student-t 1.06 · n = 1052026-W43 · normal 0.83 (95% CI 0.78–0.86) · Student-t 1.07 · n = 1022026-W44 · normal 0.84 (95% CI 0.81–0.87) · Student-t 1.09 · n = 100Student-t= realizednormal

By hour of the day

By hour of the day (UTC, window open): the ratio differs between hours on 5-minute, 15-minute and hourly (Kruskal–Wallis p < 0.001). 5-minute: highest at 0:00 (0.92), lowest at 9:00 (0.74), 15-minute: highest at 0:00 (0.95), lowest at 15:00 (0.74) and hourly: highest at 13:00 (1.42), lowest at 16:00 (0.74).

5-minute — median ratio by UTC hour of window open (amber above 1, green below).
0.720.820.921.030:00 UTC · ratio 0.92 · n = 4410h1:00 UTC · ratio 0.83 · n = 4032:00 UTC · ratio 0.75 · n = 4563:00 UTC · ratio 0.77 · n = 4383h4:00 UTC · ratio 0.82 · n = 4245:00 UTC · ratio 0.80 · n = 4126:00 UTC · ratio 0.83 · n = 4306h7:00 UTC · ratio 0.81 · n = 4408:00 UTC · ratio 0.82 · n = 3999:00 UTC · ratio 0.74 · n = 4289h10:00 UTC · ratio 0.76 · n = 43911:00 UTC · ratio 0.82 · n = 46012:00 UTC · ratio 0.86 · n = 44312h13:00 UTC · ratio 0.87 · n = 40814:00 UTC · ratio 0.81 · n = 43715:00 UTC · ratio 0.78 · n = 46215h16:00 UTC · ratio 0.80 · n = 44317:00 UTC · ratio 0.79 · n = 45818:00 UTC · ratio 0.80 · n = 44818h19:00 UTC · ratio 0.82 · n = 43220:00 UTC · ratio 0.77 · n = 45221:00 UTC · ratio 0.79 · n = 47721h22:00 UTC · ratio 0.78 · n = 43923:00 UTC · ratio 0.82 · n = 464
15-minute — median ratio by UTC hour of window open (amber above 1, green below).
0.710.820.921.030:00 UTC · ratio 0.95 · n = 1680h1:00 UTC · ratio 0.90 · n = 1562:00 UTC · ratio 0.76 · n = 1533:00 UTC · ratio 0.78 · n = 1713h4:00 UTC · ratio 0.83 · n = 1665:00 UTC · ratio 0.89 · n = 1736:00 UTC · ratio 0.84 · n = 1586h7:00 UTC · ratio 0.82 · n = 1548:00 UTC · ratio 0.89 · n = 1469:00 UTC · ratio 0.75 · n = 1559h10:00 UTC · ratio 0.75 · n = 16011:00 UTC · ratio 0.84 · n = 16112:00 UTC · ratio 0.87 · n = 16112h13:00 UTC · ratio 0.95 · n = 17114:00 UTC · ratio 0.82 · n = 17115:00 UTC · ratio 0.74 · n = 17515h16:00 UTC · ratio 0.76 · n = 17717:00 UTC · ratio 0.75 · n = 16618:00 UTC · ratio 0.80 · n = 16318h19:00 UTC · ratio 0.80 · n = 16720:00 UTC · ratio 0.82 · n = 17721:00 UTC · ratio 0.79 · n = 17021h22:00 UTC · ratio 0.82 · n = 16423:00 UTC · ratio 0.82 · n = 162
hourly — median ratio by UTC hour of window open (amber above 1, green below).
0.670.941.211.480:00 UTC · ratio 1.04 · n = 530h1:00 UTC · ratio 0.94 · n = 482:00 UTC · ratio 0.81 · n = 413:00 UTC · ratio 0.77 · n = 503h4:00 UTC · ratio 0.84 · n = 475:00 UTC · ratio 0.91 · n = 376:00 UTC · ratio 0.88 · n = 466h7:00 UTC · ratio 0.86 · n = 428:00 UTC · ratio 0.88 · n = 429:00 UTC · ratio 0.84 · n = 429h10:00 UTC · ratio 0.77 · n = 4511:00 UTC · ratio 0.84 · n = 4812:00 UTC · ratio 0.95 · n = 5212h13:00 UTC · ratio 1.42 · n = 5214:00 UTC · ratio 0.86 · n = 4315:00 UTC · ratio 0.75 · n = 4715h16:00 UTC · ratio 0.74 · n = 4417:00 UTC · ratio 0.76 · n = 5118:00 UTC · ratio 0.83 · n = 4518h19:00 UTC · ratio 0.83 · n = 5120:00 UTC · ratio 0.86 · n = 4821:00 UTC · ratio 0.87 · n = 4521h22:00 UTC · ratio 0.84 · n = 3823:00 UTC · ratio 0.82 · n = 44

Questions

How many Ethereum windows feed these figures?

10,533 of 21,428 5-minute windows, 3,945 of 7,134 15-minute windows and 1,101 of 1,799 hourly windows — those whose mid-window price sat in the 15%–45% or 55%–85% band, over 75 nights. One minute before the close only 16%, 9% and 7% would remain: that reading is not published.

Are Ethereum levels (implied 30% against realized 37%) published?

Yes for 5-minute, 15-minute and hourly: the two-decimal spot in the collector's logs rounds to 0.29% of a typical half-window move at Ethereum's price (about $2479), under the 1% tolerance set in advance.

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Paper results · not financial advice · 18+. Data analytics on Polymarket crypto markets.