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XRP: what Polymarket prices imply, against what happened

3 XRP markets (5-minute, 15-minute and hourly), 75 nights from Aug 18, 2026 to Nov 1, 2026. Implied volatility is read at mid-window from the order-book mid and the pricer that grades our track record.
5-minute 0.85×15-minute 0.83×hourly 0.82×nights 75figures as of 2026-11-02 12:54 UTC

What we measured

Across 3 XRP markets, the mid-window implied volatility (normal inversion) is 0.85 × realized on the 5-minute market (95% CI 0.84–0.86, n = 5,242), 0.83 × realized on the 15-minute market (95% CI 0.83–0.84, n = 2,369) and 0.82 × realized on the hourly market (95% CI 0.80–0.83, n = 744). The three durations sit within 0.03 of each other.

Through the Student-t (ν = 4) inversion the same XRP prices read 1.07 × (5-minute), 1.07 × (15-minute) and 1.05 × (hourly) — at or above realized.

Levels are not published for XRP: at about $1.39, the two-decimal spot in the collector's logs is 376% (5-minute), 192% (15-minute) and 90% (hourly) of a typical half-window move, above the 1% tolerance set in advance.

Stability: ratio on the first and second halves of the period — 0.86 / 0.84 (5-minute), 0.85 / 0.81 (15-minute) and 0.80 / 0.83 (hourly).

Highest and lowest nightly ratios — 5-minute: 0.93 on Sep 26, 2026 (n = 69), 0.71 on Aug 18, 2026 (n = 49), 15-minute: 0.98 on Sep 6, 2026 (n = 31), 0.74 on Sep 19, 2026 (n = 30) and hourly: 0.88 on week 2026-W41 (n = 70), 0.75 on week 2026-W36 (n = 71).

Share of windows with XRP price and spot on opposite sides of the price to beat (excluded as "side"): 20.5% (5-minute), 19.7% (15-minute) and 15.3% (hourly); above 50% in 23% of 5-minute windows, 21% of 15-minute windows and 14% of hourly windows the implied σ exceeded the trailing realized σ.

Windows kept by the price band: 24% of 21,417 (5-minute), 33% of 7,132 (15-minute) and 41% of 1,799 (hourly); the rest sat too close to 50¢ or too close to 0 or 1 for a stable inversion.

Whole period and two halves — implied ÷ trailing realized, median per window
marketkeptnormal [95% CI]Student-tfirst halfsecond halfvariance ratio, what followed
5-minute5,2420.85 [0.84; 0.86]1.070.86 (n 2,571)0.84 (n 2,671)—
15-minute2,3690.83 [0.83; 0.84]1.070.85 (n 1,183)0.81 (n 1,186)—
hourly7440.82 [0.80; 0.83]1.050.80 (n 365)0.83 (n 379)—

Over time

XRP 5-minute — implied ÷ realized per night; green = normal inversion with its 95% band, dashed = Student-t; dotted amber = 1. Cells with fewer than 30 windows are not drawn.
0.580.740.911.071.2308-1808-2909-0909-2010-0110-1210-2310-312026-08-18 · normal 0.71 (95% CI 0.62–0.82) · Student-t 0.89 · n = 492026-08-19 · normal 0.77 (95% CI 0.70–0.86) · Student-t 0.98 · n = 422026-08-20 · normal 0.86 (95% CI 0.83–0.93) · Student-t 1.10 · n = 722026-08-21 · normal 0.87 (95% CI 0.81–0.96) · Student-t 1.09 · n = 692026-08-22 · normal 0.92 (95% CI 0.86–0.95) · Student-t 1.13 · n = 792026-08-23 · normal 0.90 (95% CI 0.87–0.99) · Student-t 1.16 · n = 862026-08-24 · normal 0.86 (95% CI 0.85–0.93) · Student-t 1.11 · n = 842026-08-25 · normal 0.89 (95% CI 0.86–0.95) · Student-t 1.14 · n = 782026-08-26 · normal 0.90 (95% CI 0.86–0.93) · Student-t 1.14 · n = 682026-08-27 · normal 0.88 (95% CI 0.87–0.95) · Student-t 1.13 · n = 772026-08-28 · normal 0.81 (95% CI 0.78–0.88) · Student-t 1.03 · n = 732026-08-29 · normal 0.91 (95% CI 0.84–0.97) · Student-t 1.15 · n = 702026-08-30 · normal 0.83 (95% CI 0.79–0.88) · Student-t 1.05 · n = 782026-08-31 · normal 0.92 (95% CI 0.86–1.03) · Student-t 1.19 · n = 602026-09-01 · normal 0.89 (95% CI 0.84–0.92) · Student-t 1.11 · n = 732026-09-02 · normal 0.92 (95% CI 0.86–0.97) · Student-t 1.18 · n = 642026-09-03 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.73–0.86) · Student-t 1.04 · n = 572026-09-04 · normal 0.85 (95% CI 0.79–0.89) · Student-t 1.09 · n = 672026-09-05 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.76–0.89) · Student-t 1.04 · n = 752026-09-06 · normal 0.85 (95% CI 0.77–0.91) · Student-t 1.07 · n = 772026-09-07 · normal 0.85 (95% CI 0.79–0.96) · Student-t 1.08 · n = 672026-09-08 · normal 0.84 (95% CI 0.81–0.89) · Student-t 1.07 · n = 612026-09-09 · normal 0.85 (95% CI 0.81–0.89) · Student-t 1.09 · n = 662026-09-10 · normal 0.89 (95% CI 0.81–0.93) · Student-t 1.12 · n = 692026-09-11 · normal 0.81 (95% CI 0.78–0.87) · Student-t 1.01 · n = 722026-09-12 · normal 0.83 (95% CI 0.75–0.94) · Student-t 1.03 · n = 712026-09-13 · normal 0.86 (95% CI 0.82–0.94) · Student-t 1.10 · n = 642026-09-14 · normal 0.78 (95% CI 0.75–0.86) · Student-t 0.98 · n = 662026-09-15 · normal 0.79 (95% CI 0.74–0.84) · Student-t 1.01 · n = 832026-09-16 · normal 0.87 (95% CI 0.83–0.93) · Student-t 1.11 · n = 572026-09-17 · normal 0.80 (95% CI 0.76–0.85) · Student-t 1.02 · n = 822026-09-18 · normal 0.79 (95% CI 0.75–0.89) · Student-t 1.00 · n = 642026-09-19 · normal 0.77 (95% CI 0.69–0.85) · Student-t 0.97 · n = 602026-09-20 · normal 0.85 (95% CI 0.78–0.91) · Student-t 1.10 · n = 692026-09-21 · normal 0.91 (95% CI 0.84–0.96) · Student-t 1.14 · n = 612026-09-22 · normal 0.89 (95% CI 0.85–0.94) · Student-t 1.12 · n = 812026-09-23 · normal 0.83 (95% CI 0.80–0.86) · Student-t 1.06 · n = 802026-09-24 · normal 0.87 (95% CI 0.81–0.97) · Student-t 1.10 · n = 632026-09-25 · normal 0.90 (95% CI 0.85–0.94) · Student-t 1.14 · n = 692026-09-26 · normal 0.93 (95% CI 0.85–0.99) · Student-t 1.15 · n = 692026-09-27 · normal 0.79 (95% CI 0.75–0.91) · Student-t 1.01 · n = 622026-09-28 · normal 0.86 (95% CI 0.82–0.89) · Student-t 1.09 · n = 752026-09-29 · normal 0.89 (95% CI 0.82–0.93) · Student-t 1.13 · n = 752026-09-30 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.79–0.88) · Student-t 1.05 · n = 722026-10-01 · normal 0.89 (95% CI 0.84–0.93) · Student-t 1.12 · n = 702026-10-02 · normal 0.85 (95% CI 0.78–0.93) · Student-t 1.08 · n = 752026-10-03 · normal 0.89 (95% CI 0.82–0.96) · Student-t 1.12 · n = 662026-10-04 · normal 0.81 (95% CI 0.76–0.88) · Student-t 1.03 · n = 692026-10-05 · normal 0.84 (95% CI 0.80–0.95) · Student-t 1.06 · n = 742026-10-06 · normal 0.91 (95% CI 0.86–0.96) · Student-t 1.16 · n = 782026-10-07 · normal 0.78 (95% CI 0.74–0.88) · Student-t 1.00 · n = 732026-10-08 · normal 0.89 (95% CI 0.83–0.94) · Student-t 1.14 · n = 682026-10-09 · normal 0.80 (95% CI 0.76–0.83) · Student-t 1.03 · n = 662026-10-10 · normal 0.85 (95% CI 0.77–0.91) · Student-t 1.05 · n = 682026-10-11 · normal 0.74 (95% CI 0.69–0.78) · Student-t 0.93 · n = 682026-10-12 · normal 0.83 (95% CI 0.77–0.88) · Student-t 1.06 · n = 712026-10-13 · normal 0.87 (95% CI 0.78–0.92) · Student-t 1.05 · n = 742026-10-14 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.78–0.85) · Student-t 1.04 · n = 712026-10-15 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.77–0.91) · Student-t 1.01 · n = 722026-10-16 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.74–0.90) · Student-t 1.04 · n = 782026-10-17 · normal 0.77 (95% CI 0.74–0.80) · Student-t 0.97 · n = 812026-10-18 · normal 0.86 (95% CI 0.82–0.90) · Student-t 1.08 · n = 872026-10-19 · normal 0.81 (95% CI 0.72–0.86) · Student-t 1.02 · n = 642026-10-20 · normal 0.86 (95% CI 0.79–0.93) · Student-t 1.08 · n = 712026-10-21 · normal 0.87 (95% CI 0.79–0.93) · Student-t 1.07 · n = 732026-10-22 · normal 0.88 (95% CI 0.84–0.94) · Student-t 1.10 · n = 672026-10-23 · normal 0.81 (95% CI 0.73–0.88) · Student-t 1.02 · n = 672026-10-24 · normal 0.84 (95% CI 0.81–0.87) · Student-t 1.07 · n = 682026-10-25 · normal 0.81 (95% CI 0.72–0.87) · Student-t 1.03 · n = 652026-10-26 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.77–0.88) · Student-t 1.04 · n = 682026-10-27 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.76–0.87) · Student-t 1.03 · n = 672026-10-28 · normal 0.79 (95% CI 0.75–0.84) · Student-t 1.01 · n = 632026-10-29 · normal 0.81 (95% CI 0.76–0.90) · Student-t 1.02 · n = 702026-10-30 · normal 0.83 (95% CI 0.78–0.90) · Student-t 1.05 · n = 792026-10-31 · normal 0.80 (95% CI 0.70–0.89) · Student-t 1.01 · n = 55Student-t= realizednormal
XRP 15-minute — implied ÷ realized per night; green = normal inversion with its 95% band, dashed = Student-t; dotted amber = 1. Cells with fewer than 30 windows are not drawn.
0.630.800.971.141.3108-2108-2909-1009-2210-0510-1610-2610-292026-08-21 · normal 0.84 (95% CI 0.78–0.90) · Student-t 1.06 · n = 472026-08-22 · normal 0.84 (95% CI 0.81–0.91) · Student-t 1.09 · n = 332026-08-23 · normal 0.88 (95% CI 0.85–0.95) · Student-t 1.16 · n = 442026-08-24 · normal 0.91 (95% CI 0.82–0.98) · Student-t 1.16 · n = 402026-08-25 · normal 0.89 (95% CI 0.81–1.04) · Student-t 1.13 · n = 302026-08-26 · normal 0.94 (95% CI 0.91–1.04) · Student-t 1.18 · n = 402026-08-27 · normal 0.86 (95% CI 0.80–0.96) · Student-t 1.11 · n = 432026-08-28 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.79–0.89) · Student-t 1.05 · n = 352026-08-29 · normal 0.90 (95% CI 0.80–1.01) · Student-t 1.15 · n = 302026-08-30 · normal 0.84 (95% CI 0.78–0.91) · Student-t 1.07 · n = 312026-09-02 · normal 0.91 (95% CI 0.78–0.99) · Student-t 1.17 · n = 332026-09-03 · normal 0.90 (95% CI 0.78–0.97) · Student-t 1.15 · n = 312026-09-04 · normal 0.81 (95% CI 0.73–0.94) · Student-t 1.04 · n = 302026-09-05 · normal 0.89 (95% CI 0.82–0.95) · Student-t 1.12 · n = 322026-09-06 · normal 0.98 (95% CI 0.88–1.14) · Student-t 1.27 · n = 312026-09-07 · normal 0.80 (95% CI 0.68–1.02) · Student-t 1.03 · n = 342026-09-10 · normal 0.87 (95% CI 0.82–0.91) · Student-t 1.09 · n = 362026-09-12 · normal 0.89 (95% CI 0.79–0.95) · Student-t 1.15 · n = 302026-09-13 · normal 0.90 (95% CI 0.75–1.02) · Student-t 1.13 · n = 302026-09-14 · normal 0.79 (95% CI 0.71–0.84) · Student-t 1.02 · n = 352026-09-16 · normal 0.83 (95% CI 0.77–0.90) · Student-t 1.08 · n = 332026-09-19 · normal 0.74 (95% CI 0.68–0.80) · Student-t 0.96 · n = 302026-09-20 · normal 0.87 (95% CI 0.81–0.94) · Student-t 1.14 · n = 342026-09-21 · normal 0.87 (95% CI 0.83–0.93) · Student-t 1.12 · n = 332026-09-22 · normal 0.83 (95% CI 0.77–0.86) · Student-t 1.07 · n = 452026-09-24 · normal 0.91 (95% CI 0.83–1.01) · Student-t 1.19 · n = 342026-09-25 · normal 0.81 (95% CI 0.77–0.85) · Student-t 1.04 · n = 432026-09-26 · normal 0.83 (95% CI 0.77–0.96) · Student-t 1.09 · n = 342026-09-27 · normal 0.83 (95% CI 0.80–0.89) · Student-t 1.06 · n = 312026-09-29 · normal 0.85 (95% CI 0.77–0.93) · Student-t 1.09 · n = 322026-10-02 · normal 0.75 (95% CI 0.69–0.90) · Student-t 0.95 · n = 362026-10-03 · normal 0.90 (95% CI 0.83–0.99) · Student-t 1.19 · n = 342026-10-05 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.72–0.93) · Student-t 1.04 · n = 302026-10-06 · normal 0.85 (95% CI 0.75–0.89) · Student-t 1.10 · n = 302026-10-07 · normal 0.91 (95% CI 0.73–0.96) · Student-t 1.14 · n = 312026-10-08 · normal 0.85 (95% CI 0.77–0.93) · Student-t 1.08 · n = 362026-10-09 · normal 0.76 (95% CI 0.69–0.87) · Student-t 1.00 · n = 302026-10-10 · normal 0.81 (95% CI 0.75–0.87) · Student-t 1.03 · n = 352026-10-12 · normal 0.75 (95% CI 0.70–0.86) · Student-t 0.99 · n = 332026-10-15 · normal 0.77 (95% CI 0.70–0.82) · Student-t 0.99 · n = 312026-10-16 · normal 0.80 (95% CI 0.71–0.87) · Student-t 1.03 · n = 312026-10-18 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.76–0.88) · Student-t 1.07 · n = 352026-10-19 · normal 0.79 (95% CI 0.72–0.81) · Student-t 1.01 · n = 392026-10-20 · normal 0.80 (95% CI 0.73–0.89) · Student-t 1.00 · n = 342026-10-21 · normal 0.76 (95% CI 0.72–0.85) · Student-t 0.99 · n = 362026-10-22 · normal 0.84 (95% CI 0.76–0.87) · Student-t 1.07 · n = 392026-10-23 · normal 0.81 (95% CI 0.76–0.86) · Student-t 1.03 · n = 302026-10-24 · normal 0.78 (95% CI 0.73–0.83) · Student-t 0.99 · n = 352026-10-26 · normal 0.85 (95% CI 0.77–0.93) · Student-t 1.07 · n = 322026-10-29 · normal 0.80 (95% CI 0.76–0.87) · Student-t 1.02 · n = 30Student-t= realizednormal
XRP hourly — implied ÷ realized per ISO week; green = normal inversion with its 95% band, dashed = Student-t; dotted amber = 1. Cells with fewer than 30 windows are not drawn.
0.680.800.921.041.16W34W36W38W40W42W442026-W34 · normal 0.79 (95% CI 0.73–0.86) · Student-t 1.01 · n = 522026-W35 · normal 0.83 (95% CI 0.80–0.88) · Student-t 1.06 · n = 702026-W36 · normal 0.75 (95% CI 0.72–0.81) · Student-t 0.98 · n = 712026-W37 · normal 0.87 (95% CI 0.80–0.92) · Student-t 1.12 · n = 672026-W38 · normal 0.77 (95% CI 0.73–0.80) · Student-t 0.97 · n = 712026-W39 · normal 0.84 (95% CI 0.79–0.86) · Student-t 1.08 · n = 752026-W40 · normal 0.85 (95% CI 0.79–0.86) · Student-t 1.07 · n = 632026-W41 · normal 0.88 (95% CI 0.82–0.92) · Student-t 1.12 · n = 702026-W42 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.78–0.84) · Student-t 1.06 · n = 692026-W43 · normal 0.81 (95% CI 0.79–0.87) · Student-t 1.06 · n = 712026-W44 · normal 0.80 (95% CI 0.75–0.84) · Student-t 1.04 · n = 65Student-t= realizednormal

By hour of the day

By hour of the day (UTC, window open): the ratio differs between hours on 5-minute, 15-minute and hourly (Kruskal–Wallis p < 0.001). 5-minute: highest at 0:00 (0.93), lowest at 22:00 (0.79), 15-minute: highest at 13:00 (0.97), lowest at 10:00 (0.76) and hourly: highest at 13:00 (1.07), lowest at 16:00 (0.71).

5-minute — median ratio by UTC hour of window open (amber above 1, green below).
0.770.850.941.020:00 UTC · ratio 0.93 · n = 1670h1:00 UTC · ratio 0.83 · n = 2072:00 UTC · ratio 0.82 · n = 1663:00 UTC · ratio 0.83 · n = 1943h4:00 UTC · ratio 0.88 · n = 1865:00 UTC · ratio 0.82 · n = 2076:00 UTC · ratio 0.86 · n = 1856h7:00 UTC · ratio 0.87 · n = 1938:00 UTC · ratio 0.86 · n = 1899:00 UTC · ratio 0.83 · n = 1969h10:00 UTC · ratio 0.80 · n = 18111:00 UTC · ratio 0.88 · n = 19812:00 UTC · ratio 0.89 · n = 20912h13:00 UTC · ratio 0.91 · n = 19214:00 UTC · ratio 0.87 · n = 19215:00 UTC · ratio 0.81 · n = 22815h16:00 UTC · ratio 0.84 · n = 22017:00 UTC · ratio 0.85 · n = 22318:00 UTC · ratio 0.85 · n = 19318h19:00 UTC · ratio 0.85 · n = 21020:00 UTC · ratio 0.84 · n = 22521:00 UTC · ratio 0.82 · n = 19421h22:00 UTC · ratio 0.79 · n = 20923:00 UTC · ratio 0.82 · n = 194
15-minute — median ratio by UTC hour of window open (amber above 1, green below).
0.730.830.931.020:00 UTC · ratio 0.91 · n = 990h1:00 UTC · ratio 0.89 · n = 892:00 UTC · ratio 0.80 · n = 873:00 UTC · ratio 0.84 · n = 953h4:00 UTC · ratio 0.86 · n = 865:00 UTC · ratio 0.86 · n = 836:00 UTC · ratio 0.85 · n = 926h7:00 UTC · ratio 0.82 · n = 1018:00 UTC · ratio 0.87 · n = 889:00 UTC · ratio 0.82 · n = 989h10:00 UTC · ratio 0.76 · n = 8411:00 UTC · ratio 0.81 · n = 8412:00 UTC · ratio 0.85 · n = 10012h13:00 UTC · ratio 0.97 · n = 10514:00 UTC · ratio 0.91 · n = 12715:00 UTC · ratio 0.78 · n = 10715h16:00 UTC · ratio 0.78 · n = 9417:00 UTC · ratio 0.79 · n = 10118:00 UTC · ratio 0.78 · n = 8518h19:00 UTC · ratio 0.82 · n = 9420:00 UTC · ratio 0.80 · n = 10821:00 UTC · ratio 0.81 · n = 10321h22:00 UTC · ratio 0.85 · n = 9123:00 UTC · ratio 0.83 · n = 99
hourly — median ratio by UTC hour of window open (amber above 1, green below).
0.680.820.971.110:00 UTC · ratio 0.91 · n = 290h1:00 UTC · ratio 0.88 · n = 302:00 UTC · ratio 0.77 · n = 273:00 UTC · ratio 0.77 · n = 263h4:00 UTC · ratio 0.79 · n = 225:00 UTC · ratio 0.81 · n = 286:00 UTC · ratio 0.83 · n = 306h7:00 UTC · ratio 0.85 · n = 298:00 UTC · ratio 0.81 · n = 259:00 UTC · ratio 0.87 · n = 329h10:00 UTC · ratio 0.74 · n = 2911:00 UTC · ratio 0.79 · n = 3312:00 UTC · ratio 0.96 · n = 3512h13:00 UTC · ratio 1.07 · n = 3814:00 UTC · ratio 0.95 · n = 3215:00 UTC · ratio 0.73 · n = 3915h16:00 UTC · ratio 0.71 · n = 2917:00 UTC · ratio 0.81 · n = 3818:00 UTC · ratio 0.80 · n = 3318h19:00 UTC · ratio 0.81 · n = 3020:00 UTC · ratio 0.82 · n = 2821:00 UTC · ratio 0.76 · n = 2921h22:00 UTC · ratio 0.76 · n = 2923:00 UTC · ratio 0.78 · n = 34

Questions

How many XRP windows feed these figures?

5,242 of 21,417 5-minute windows, 2,369 of 7,132 15-minute windows and 744 of 1,799 hourly windows — those whose mid-window price sat in the 15%–45% or 55%–85% band, over 75 nights. One minute before the close only 6%, 3% and 4% would remain: that reading is not published.

Are XRP levels (implied 168% against realized 179%) published?

No — the XRP spot is logged too coarsely for a level (376% of a half-window move). The ratios cancel the spot and stay exact; XRP's 0.85 (5-minute), 0.83 (15-minute) and 0.82 (hourly) are published.

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Paper results · not financial advice · 18+. Data analytics on Polymarket crypto markets.