Bitcoin Up or Down — 5 minutes

Will BTC end the window above where it started? 288 Bitcoin 5-minute windows a day on Polymarket; we graded 19,863 over 69 nights.

windows graded 19,863nights 69T−60 s favourite won 92.0%market Brier 0.0579figures as of 2026-10-15 12:59 UTC

Resolution: the Chainlink BTC/USD 60-second TWAP at the close against the TWAP at the open, ties going Up — the rule since Aug 7, 2026. The median Bitcoin 5-minute window closed 4.3 bps from its price to beat; 15.2% closed within 1 bp.

Closed nights Aug 7, 2026 – Oct 14, 2026. How we grade: methodology notes on /performance.

What we measured

BTC's realized volatility at the open had a median of 26.1% a year — one standard deviation over 5 minutes is about 8.1 bps, against a median close-to-beat distance of 4.3 bps.

At T−60 s the favourite won 92.0% of 19,862 Bitcoin 5-minute windows — the highest rate of the 4 5-minute markets (their average: 91.7%); Bitcoin's 15-minute 94.7% and hourly 96.0%.

So the price sat on the losing side 8.0% of the time, 22.9 windows a night, and favourites at 90¢ or more still lost 242 of 14,592 (1.66%).

By price band: 50–60¢ won 54.8% of 1,055, 60–70¢ won 68.7% of 994, 70–80¢ won 76.0% of 1,247, 80–90¢ won 87.2% of 1,974, 90–100¢ won 98.3% of 14,592 (the 90¢+ favourite cost 98¢ on average).

Weighted across bands, outcomes beat prices by +0.7 points: underconfident pricing at T−60 s.

Brier at T−60 s: market 0.0579 (sharpest among 5-minute markets), Student-t model 0.0628, normal model 0.0645 — market ahead by 0.0049.

Up won 50.1% of Bitcoin 5-minute windows; the roughest night was Aug 19, 2026, favourite beaten in 14.9% of 289, the calmest Aug 18, 2026 at 3.9%.

From mid-window to T−60 s the market's Brier score dropped from 0.1452 to 0.0579.

Calibration at T−60 s: favourite's price vs how often it won
favourite priced	windows	won	avg price
50–60¢	1,055	54.8%	53.6¢
60–70¢	994	68.7%	65.1¢
70–80¢	1,247	76.0%	75.3¢
80–90¢	1,974	87.2%	85.6¢
90–100¢	14,592	98.3%	97.9¢

Paper results of our public rules (● = 95% CI clear of zero)

Paper results on Bitcoin 5-minute windows: 250,636 paper trades, 13 rules plus 2 controls (random entry; favourite at T−30 s), 95% intervals as on /performance.

rule	nights	n	win	avg price	total P&L $	P&L/trade	95% CI ¢/trade
LEAD3	69	17341	51%	43¢	+1337.77	+7.7¢	[+7.0 ; +8.4]
EDGE12	69	14817	44%	36¢	+1234.68	+8.3¢	[+7.6 ; +9.1]
COMBO	69	18951	48%	42¢	+1027.06	+5.4¢	[+4.8 ; +6.1]
EDGE12_BUILT	69	13667	42%	35¢	+1026.36	+7.5¢	[+6.7 ; +8.3]
EDGE8	69	18311	46%	41¢	+982.13	+5.4¢	[+4.7 ; +6.0]
EDGE8_BUILT	69	17389	44%	40¢	+821.83	+4.7¢	[+4.0 ; +5.4]
EDGE6	69	19356	46%	43¢	+661.50	+3.4¢	[+2.7 ; +4.1]
IVRV	69	16270	64%	60¢	+593.49	+3.6¢	[+2.9 ; +4.4]
EDGE4_T	69	19779	52%	50¢	+440.23	+2.2¢	[+1.6 ; +2.9]
EDGE4	69	19798	46%	44¢	+293.21	+1.5¢	[+0.8 ; +2.2]
EDGE4_EARLY	69	19592	46%	44¢	+288.95	+1.5¢	[+0.8 ; +2.1]
EDGE4_LATE	69	13067	34%	32¢	+208.72	+1.6¢	[+0.9 ; +2.3]
EDGE2	69	19857	46%	46¢	+41.68	+0.2¢	[−0.5 ; +0.9]
CTRL_FAV30	69	4888	93%	93¢	+0.33	+0.0¢	[−0.6 ; +0.6]
CTRL_RND	69	17553	50%	51¢	−42.22	−0.2¢	[−0.8 ; +0.3]

12 of 13 rules clear zero here; highest paper totals: LEAD3 +1337.77 $ (17,341 trades, +7.71¢ each), EDGE12 +1234.68 $ (14,817 trades, +8.33¢ each), COMBO +1027.06 $ (18,951 trades, +5.42¢ each); CTRL_RND −0.24¢ [−0.81 ; +0.33], n = 17,553.

Paper results · not financial advice · 18+. Rule definitions: strategy glossary on /performance.

Last night

Oct 14, 2026: 289 Bitcoin 5-minute windows graded, favourite beaten in 16 of 289, Brier 0.0450 (market) vs 0.0475 (model).

Full night of Oct 14, 2026 on /performance →

Questions

How is the Bitcoin Up or Down 5 minutes market resolved?

Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP over 60 seconds, close versus open; ties are Up.

What time do Bitcoin 5-minute markets open and close?

288 a day, every 5 minutes on round UTC times.

What is the "price to beat" on Bitcoin 5-minute markets?

The BTC/USD TWAP at the window's first second. Typical distance at the close: 4.3 bps (median).

Why does the Bitcoin 5-minute price jump in the last minute?

The final 60 seconds feed the closing average, so each second fixes more of the result and prices run to 0¢ or 100¢; 1,582 BTC favourites still lost from T−60 s.

Where can I see live Bitcoin 5-minute probabilities?

The Mispria terminal shows it free for Bitcoin — our model's probability beside the market price, live, on 5-minute windows as on the other two durations.

Open the terminal Nightly recap on Telegram See Pro

Related markets

Data analytics on Polymarket crypto markets — not financial advice, not a solicitation to trade. 18+.