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Solana: what Polymarket prices imply, against what happened

3 Solana markets (5-minute, 15-minute and hourly), 75 nights from Aug 18, 2026 to Nov 1, 2026. Implied volatility is read at mid-window from the order-book mid and the pricer that grades our track record.
5-minute 0.82×15-minute 0.83×hourly 0.84×nights 75figures as of 2026-11-02 12:54 UTC

What we measured

Across 3 Solana markets, the mid-window implied volatility (normal inversion) is 0.82 × realized on the 5-minute market (95% CI 0.81–0.82, n = 10,146), 0.83 × realized on the 15-minute market (95% CI 0.82–0.84, n = 3,798) and 0.84 × realized on the hourly market (95% CI 0.83–0.85, n = 1,068). The three durations sit within 0.02 of each other.

Through the Student-t (ν = 4) inversion the same Solana prices read 1.05 × (5-minute), 1.07 × (15-minute) and 1.08 × (hourly) — at or above realized.

Levels are not published for Solana: at about $104, the two-decimal spot in the collector's logs is 5.4% (5-minute), 2.8% (15-minute) and 1.3% (hourly) of a typical half-window move, above the 1% tolerance set in advance.

Stability: ratio on the first and second halves of the period — 0.82 / 0.81 (5-minute), 0.84 / 0.82 (15-minute) and 0.84 / 0.83 (hourly).

Highest and lowest nightly ratios — 5-minute: 0.89 on Oct 7, 2026 (n = 142), 0.74 on Sep 11, 2026 (n = 114), 15-minute: 0.94 on Sep 20, 2026 (n = 40), 0.70 on Oct 9, 2026 (n = 46) and hourly: 0.87 on week 2026-W37 (n = 97), 0.79 on week 2026-W42 (n = 108).

Share of windows with Solana price and spot on opposite sides of the price to beat (excluded as "side"): 0.5% (5-minute), 0.2% (15-minute) and 0.4% (hourly); above 50% in 24% of 5-minute windows, 21% of 15-minute windows and 19% of hourly windows the implied σ exceeded the trailing realized σ.

Windows kept by the price band: 47% of 21,425 (5-minute), 53% of 7,139 (15-minute) and 59% of 1,799 (hourly); the rest sat too close to 50¢ or too close to 0 or 1 for a stable inversion.

Whole period and two halves — implied ÷ trailing realized, median per window
marketkeptnormal [95% CI]Student-tfirst halfsecond halfvariance ratio, what followed
5-minute10,1460.82 [0.81; 0.82]1.050.82 (n 4,956)0.81 (n 5,190)—
15-minute3,7980.83 [0.82; 0.84]1.070.84 (n 1,821)0.82 (n 1,977)—
hourly1,0680.84 [0.83; 0.85]1.080.84 (n 504)0.83 (n 564)—

Over time

Solana 5-minute — implied ÷ realized per night; green = normal inversion with its 95% band, dashed = Student-t; dotted amber = 1. Cells with fewer than 30 windows are not drawn.
0.640.780.911.051.1908-1808-2909-0909-2010-0110-1210-2310-312026-08-18 · normal 0.80 (95% CI 0.73–0.87) · Student-t 1.04 · n = 1012026-08-19 · normal 0.78 (95% CI 0.71–0.83) · Student-t 1.00 · n = 1062026-08-20 · normal 0.75 (95% CI 0.68–0.80) · Student-t 0.96 · n = 1412026-08-21 · normal 0.76 (95% CI 0.71–0.82) · Student-t 1.01 · n = 1312026-08-22 · normal 0.79 (95% CI 0.73–0.84) · Student-t 1.01 · n = 1282026-08-23 · normal 0.78 (95% CI 0.72–0.82) · Student-t 1.00 · n = 1382026-08-24 · normal 0.84 (95% CI 0.79–0.88) · Student-t 1.07 · n = 1372026-08-25 · normal 0.87 (95% CI 0.82–0.91) · Student-t 1.12 · n = 1442026-08-26 · normal 0.85 (95% CI 0.81–0.89) · Student-t 1.11 · n = 1202026-08-27 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.72–0.86) · Student-t 1.03 · n = 1372026-08-28 · normal 0.78 (95% CI 0.73–0.82) · Student-t 1.01 · n = 1342026-08-29 · normal 0.83 (95% CI 0.77–0.86) · Student-t 1.06 · n = 1482026-08-30 · normal 0.86 (95% CI 0.81–0.92) · Student-t 1.11 · n = 1392026-08-31 · normal 0.84 (95% CI 0.80–0.87) · Student-t 1.08 · n = 1162026-09-01 · normal 0.86 (95% CI 0.79–0.90) · Student-t 1.11 · n = 1362026-09-02 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.79–0.89) · Student-t 1.06 · n = 1262026-09-03 · normal 0.81 (95% CI 0.77–0.89) · Student-t 1.04 · n = 1192026-09-04 · normal 0.86 (95% CI 0.81–0.94) · Student-t 1.09 · n = 1422026-09-05 · normal 0.83 (95% CI 0.78–0.91) · Student-t 1.08 · n = 1542026-09-06 · normal 0.83 (95% CI 0.77–0.88) · Student-t 1.07 · n = 1362026-09-07 · normal 0.86 (95% CI 0.78–0.89) · Student-t 1.09 · n = 1502026-09-08 · normal 0.86 (95% CI 0.81–0.91) · Student-t 1.11 · n = 1432026-09-09 · normal 0.81 (95% CI 0.78–0.84) · Student-t 1.05 · n = 1502026-09-10 · normal 0.83 (95% CI 0.80–0.86) · Student-t 1.07 · n = 1292026-09-11 · normal 0.74 (95% CI 0.70–0.80) · Student-t 0.96 · n = 1142026-09-12 · normal 0.76 (95% CI 0.73–0.83) · Student-t 0.98 · n = 1482026-09-13 · normal 0.75 (95% CI 0.70–0.85) · Student-t 0.98 · n = 1392026-09-14 · normal 0.83 (95% CI 0.74–0.87) · Student-t 1.07 · n = 1372026-09-15 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.78–0.87) · Student-t 1.06 · n = 1342026-09-16 · normal 0.85 (95% CI 0.80–0.89) · Student-t 1.09 · n = 1472026-09-17 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.78–0.87) · Student-t 1.06 · n = 1432026-09-18 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.76–0.87) · Student-t 1.07 · n = 1352026-09-19 · normal 0.81 (95% CI 0.75–0.87) · Student-t 1.03 · n = 1142026-09-20 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.77–0.85) · Student-t 1.04 · n = 1282026-09-21 · normal 0.83 (95% CI 0.76–0.85) · Student-t 1.06 · n = 1362026-09-22 · normal 0.84 (95% CI 0.80–0.88) · Student-t 1.09 · n = 1362026-09-23 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.78–0.88) · Student-t 1.06 · n = 1402026-09-24 · normal 0.85 (95% CI 0.80–0.87) · Student-t 1.07 · n = 1442026-09-25 · normal 0.84 (95% CI 0.79–0.87) · Student-t 1.08 · n = 1192026-09-26 · normal 0.78 (95% CI 0.73–0.81) · Student-t 1.00 · n = 1302026-09-27 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.78–0.86) · Student-t 1.05 · n = 1292026-09-28 · normal 0.78 (95% CI 0.75–0.81) · Student-t 1.00 · n = 1302026-09-29 · normal 0.84 (95% CI 0.78–0.87) · Student-t 1.08 · n = 1362026-09-30 · normal 0.85 (95% CI 0.82–0.88) · Student-t 1.09 · n = 1522026-10-01 · normal 0.87 (95% CI 0.82–0.92) · Student-t 1.12 · n = 1342026-10-02 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.76–0.89) · Student-t 1.05 · n = 1392026-10-03 · normal 0.80 (95% CI 0.73–0.85) · Student-t 1.02 · n = 1232026-10-04 · normal 0.80 (95% CI 0.75–0.86) · Student-t 1.02 · n = 1362026-10-05 · normal 0.85 (95% CI 0.77–0.89) · Student-t 1.09 · n = 1492026-10-06 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.77–0.88) · Student-t 1.04 · n = 1342026-10-07 · normal 0.89 (95% CI 0.84–0.95) · Student-t 1.15 · n = 1422026-10-08 · normal 0.80 (95% CI 0.76–0.86) · Student-t 1.03 · n = 1352026-10-09 · normal 0.79 (95% CI 0.74–0.84) · Student-t 1.03 · n = 1242026-10-10 · normal 0.79 (95% CI 0.73–0.86) · Student-t 1.01 · n = 1362026-10-11 · normal 0.74 (95% CI 0.70–0.79) · Student-t 0.96 · n = 1342026-10-12 · normal 0.79 (95% CI 0.76–0.82) · Student-t 1.01 · n = 1452026-10-13 · normal 0.80 (95% CI 0.76–0.85) · Student-t 1.03 · n = 1432026-10-14 · normal 0.83 (95% CI 0.77–0.86) · Student-t 1.07 · n = 1362026-10-15 · normal 0.83 (95% CI 0.79–0.88) · Student-t 1.07 · n = 1392026-10-16 · normal 0.84 (95% CI 0.77–0.89) · Student-t 1.08 · n = 1382026-10-17 · normal 0.75 (95% CI 0.69–0.80) · Student-t 0.95 · n = 1452026-10-18 · normal 0.81 (95% CI 0.76–0.86) · Student-t 1.04 · n = 1302026-10-19 · normal 0.81 (95% CI 0.76–0.87) · Student-t 1.06 · n = 1442026-10-20 · normal 0.83 (95% CI 0.79–0.85) · Student-t 1.07 · n = 1282026-10-21 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.78–0.86) · Student-t 1.05 · n = 1522026-10-22 · normal 0.83 (95% CI 0.79–0.88) · Student-t 1.07 · n = 1422026-10-23 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.76–0.90) · Student-t 1.05 · n = 1362026-10-24 · normal 0.85 (95% CI 0.80–0.90) · Student-t 1.09 · n = 1322026-10-25 · normal 0.75 (95% CI 0.70–0.82) · Student-t 0.96 · n = 1232026-10-26 · normal 0.84 (95% CI 0.81–0.87) · Student-t 1.08 · n = 1452026-10-27 · normal 0.88 (95% CI 0.83–0.92) · Student-t 1.12 · n = 1382026-10-28 · normal 0.78 (95% CI 0.73–0.83) · Student-t 1.02 · n = 1362026-10-29 · normal 0.81 (95% CI 0.77–0.85) · Student-t 1.04 · n = 1422026-10-30 · normal 0.80 (95% CI 0.76–0.86) · Student-t 1.02 · n = 1362026-10-31 · normal 0.75 (95% CI 0.72–0.80) · Student-t 0.96 · n = 134= realizedStudent-tnormal
Solana 15-minute — implied ÷ realized per night; green = normal inversion with its 95% band, dashed = Student-t; dotted amber = 1. Cells with fewer than 30 windows are not drawn.
0.630.780.941.091.2408-1808-2909-0909-2010-0110-1210-2310-312026-08-18 · normal 0.84 (95% CI 0.78–0.90) · Student-t 1.08 · n = 362026-08-19 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.76–0.89) · Student-t 1.03 · n = 492026-08-20 · normal 0.83 (95% CI 0.77–0.89) · Student-t 1.06 · n = 492026-08-21 · normal 0.81 (95% CI 0.76–0.85) · Student-t 1.06 · n = 472026-08-22 · normal 0.80 (95% CI 0.70–0.85) · Student-t 1.03 · n = 472026-08-23 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.75–0.87) · Student-t 1.07 · n = 512026-08-24 · normal 0.86 (95% CI 0.75–0.90) · Student-t 1.08 · n = 472026-08-25 · normal 0.90 (95% CI 0.82–0.94) · Student-t 1.14 · n = 512026-08-26 · normal 0.79 (95% CI 0.75–0.90) · Student-t 1.02 · n = 382026-08-27 · normal 0.85 (95% CI 0.78–0.91) · Student-t 1.11 · n = 512026-08-28 · normal 0.74 (95% CI 0.67–0.81) · Student-t 0.94 · n = 502026-08-29 · normal 0.86 (95% CI 0.77–0.98) · Student-t 1.11 · n = 562026-08-30 · normal 0.85 (95% CI 0.76–0.90) · Student-t 1.11 · n = 492026-08-31 · normal 0.88 (95% CI 0.81–0.96) · Student-t 1.10 · n = 482026-09-01 · normal 0.81 (95% CI 0.72–0.90) · Student-t 1.05 · n = 452026-09-02 · normal 0.87 (95% CI 0.81–0.96) · Student-t 1.14 · n = 422026-09-03 · normal 0.80 (95% CI 0.69–0.87) · Student-t 1.00 · n = 402026-09-04 · normal 0.86 (95% CI 0.74–0.92) · Student-t 1.11 · n = 532026-09-05 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.78–0.92) · Student-t 1.08 · n = 602026-09-06 · normal 0.85 (95% CI 0.79–0.91) · Student-t 1.10 · n = 532026-09-07 · normal 0.88 (95% CI 0.80–0.95) · Student-t 1.15 · n = 542026-09-08 · normal 0.86 (95% CI 0.77–0.94) · Student-t 1.11 · n = 442026-09-09 · normal 0.79 (95% CI 0.73–0.84) · Student-t 1.03 · n = 492026-09-10 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.79–0.86) · Student-t 1.06 · n = 512026-09-11 · normal 0.79 (95% CI 0.73–0.86) · Student-t 1.01 · n = 502026-09-12 · normal 0.89 (95% CI 0.85–0.99) · Student-t 1.16 · n = 632026-09-13 · normal 0.89 (95% CI 0.78–1.00) · Student-t 1.16 · n = 582026-09-14 · normal 0.84 (95% CI 0.80–0.89) · Student-t 1.08 · n = 532026-09-15 · normal 0.86 (95% CI 0.80–0.93) · Student-t 1.08 · n = 532026-09-16 · normal 0.83 (95% CI 0.76–0.90) · Student-t 1.09 · n = 512026-09-17 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.74–0.88) · Student-t 1.05 · n = 522026-09-18 · normal 0.81 (95% CI 0.78–0.91) · Student-t 1.06 · n = 482026-09-19 · normal 0.88 (95% CI 0.82–0.96) · Student-t 1.13 · n = 512026-09-20 · normal 0.94 (95% CI 0.79–1.05) · Student-t 1.20 · n = 402026-09-21 · normal 0.87 (95% CI 0.80–0.91) · Student-t 1.09 · n = 442026-09-22 · normal 0.86 (95% CI 0.82–0.91) · Student-t 1.13 · n = 502026-09-23 · normal 0.83 (95% CI 0.78–0.89) · Student-t 1.07 · n = 482026-09-24 · normal 0.89 (95% CI 0.85–0.94) · Student-t 1.16 · n = 502026-09-25 · normal 0.78 (95% CI 0.71–0.86) · Student-t 1.03 · n = 472026-09-26 · normal 0.84 (95% CI 0.76–0.94) · Student-t 1.09 · n = 532026-09-27 · normal 0.85 (95% CI 0.82–0.89) · Student-t 1.07 · n = 522026-09-28 · normal 0.81 (95% CI 0.76–0.90) · Student-t 1.05 · n = 512026-09-29 · normal 0.88 (95% CI 0.81–0.93) · Student-t 1.14 · n = 542026-09-30 · normal 0.86 (95% CI 0.80–0.90) · Student-t 1.12 · n = 512026-10-01 · normal 0.87 (95% CI 0.74–1.00) · Student-t 1.13 · n = 552026-10-02 · normal 0.81 (95% CI 0.78–0.87) · Student-t 1.06 · n = 572026-10-03 · normal 0.93 (95% CI 0.82–1.01) · Student-t 1.20 · n = 522026-10-04 · normal 0.88 (95% CI 0.79–1.01) · Student-t 1.15 · n = 572026-10-05 · normal 0.85 (95% CI 0.77–0.92) · Student-t 1.10 · n = 462026-10-06 · normal 0.86 (95% CI 0.79–0.93) · Student-t 1.13 · n = 472026-10-07 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.72–0.92) · Student-t 1.07 · n = 422026-10-08 · normal 0.84 (95% CI 0.79–0.94) · Student-t 1.06 · n = 552026-10-09 · normal 0.70 (95% CI 0.69–0.85) · Student-t 0.93 · n = 462026-10-10 · normal 0.78 (95% CI 0.74–0.86) · Student-t 1.02 · n = 492026-10-11 · normal 0.78 (95% CI 0.72–0.90) · Student-t 0.98 · n = 602026-10-12 · normal 0.80 (95% CI 0.73–0.87) · Student-t 1.04 · n = 542026-10-13 · normal 0.81 (95% CI 0.77–0.86) · Student-t 1.05 · n = 502026-10-14 · normal 0.80 (95% CI 0.74–0.86) · Student-t 1.02 · n = 522026-10-15 · normal 0.78 (95% CI 0.72–0.85) · Student-t 1.00 · n = 582026-10-16 · normal 0.75 (95% CI 0.71–0.85) · Student-t 0.94 · n = 512026-10-17 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.75–0.90) · Student-t 1.05 · n = 542026-10-18 · normal 0.75 (95% CI 0.69–0.84) · Student-t 0.96 · n = 552026-10-19 · normal 0.77 (95% CI 0.68–0.86) · Student-t 0.99 · n = 462026-10-20 · normal 0.76 (95% CI 0.71–0.84) · Student-t 0.98 · n = 582026-10-21 · normal 0.78 (95% CI 0.76–0.81) · Student-t 1.00 · n = 562026-10-22 · normal 0.76 (95% CI 0.73–0.82) · Student-t 0.98 · n = 502026-10-23 · normal 0.81 (95% CI 0.74–0.88) · Student-t 1.05 · n = 512026-10-24 · normal 0.87 (95% CI 0.79–0.97) · Student-t 1.11 · n = 542026-10-25 · normal 0.80 (95% CI 0.76–0.86) · Student-t 1.04 · n = 572026-10-26 · normal 0.78 (95% CI 0.71–0.86) · Student-t 1.01 · n = 522026-10-27 · normal 0.87 (95% CI 0.84–0.94) · Student-t 1.12 · n = 482026-10-28 · normal 0.80 (95% CI 0.74–0.85) · Student-t 1.04 · n = 502026-10-29 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.74–0.89) · Student-t 1.07 · n = 482026-10-30 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.73–0.88) · Student-t 1.04 · n = 482026-10-31 · normal 0.83 (95% CI 0.81–0.89) · Student-t 1.07 · n = 61Student-t= realizednormal
Solana hourly — implied ÷ realized per ISO week; green = normal inversion with its 95% band, dashed = Student-t; dotted amber = 1. Cells with fewer than 30 windows are not drawn.
0.730.830.941.041.14W34W36W38W40W42W442026-W34 · normal 0.85 (95% CI 0.79–0.91) · Student-t 1.10 · n = 742026-W35 · normal 0.84 (95% CI 0.81–0.87) · Student-t 1.08 · n = 932026-W36 · normal 0.84 (95% CI 0.81–0.89) · Student-t 1.08 · n = 942026-W37 · normal 0.87 (95% CI 0.84–0.92) · Student-t 1.11 · n = 972026-W38 · normal 0.82 (95% CI 0.77–0.88) · Student-t 1.06 · n = 1022026-W39 · normal 0.83 (95% CI 0.80–0.87) · Student-t 1.08 · n = 972026-W40 · normal 0.84 (95% CI 0.80–0.87) · Student-t 1.09 · n = 1082026-W41 · normal 0.84 (95% CI 0.80–0.89) · Student-t 1.09 · n = 992026-W42 · normal 0.79 (95% CI 0.76–0.83) · Student-t 1.01 · n = 1082026-W43 · normal 0.81 (95% CI 0.78–0.86) · Student-t 1.06 · n = 1032026-W44 · normal 0.84 (95% CI 0.80–0.87) · Student-t 1.08 · n = 93Student-t= realizednormal

By hour of the day

By hour of the day (UTC, window open): the ratio differs between hours on 5-minute, 15-minute and hourly (Kruskal–Wallis p < 0.001). 5-minute: highest at 0:00 (0.90), lowest at 3:00 (0.76), 15-minute: highest at 0:00 (0.95), lowest at 16:00 (0.74) and hourly: highest at 13:00 (1.17), lowest at 15:00 (0.73).

5-minute — median ratio by UTC hour of window open (amber above 1, green below).
0.740.840.931.020:00 UTC · ratio 0.90 · n = 4250h1:00 UTC · ratio 0.81 · n = 4272:00 UTC · ratio 0.78 · n = 3923:00 UTC · ratio 0.76 · n = 4293h4:00 UTC · ratio 0.80 · n = 3855:00 UTC · ratio 0.80 · n = 3956:00 UTC · ratio 0.82 · n = 4096h7:00 UTC · ratio 0.83 · n = 4328:00 UTC · ratio 0.84 · n = 3989:00 UTC · ratio 0.79 · n = 4449h10:00 UTC · ratio 0.79 · n = 43911:00 UTC · ratio 0.83 · n = 43012:00 UTC · ratio 0.87 · n = 41712h13:00 UTC · ratio 0.89 · n = 39814:00 UTC · ratio 0.82 · n = 43515:00 UTC · ratio 0.79 · n = 43915h16:00 UTC · ratio 0.81 · n = 44417:00 UTC · ratio 0.83 · n = 44018:00 UTC · ratio 0.82 · n = 41918h19:00 UTC · ratio 0.82 · n = 42720:00 UTC · ratio 0.81 · n = 41921:00 UTC · ratio 0.80 · n = 41821h22:00 UTC · ratio 0.78 · n = 41823:00 UTC · ratio 0.84 · n = 442
15-minute — median ratio by UTC hour of window open (amber above 1, green below).
0.720.820.921.030:00 UTC · ratio 0.95 · n = 1630h1:00 UTC · ratio 0.89 · n = 1622:00 UTC · ratio 0.80 · n = 1523:00 UTC · ratio 0.80 · n = 1613h4:00 UTC · ratio 0.84 · n = 1525:00 UTC · ratio 0.84 · n = 1526:00 UTC · ratio 0.81 · n = 1556h7:00 UTC · ratio 0.83 · n = 1608:00 UTC · ratio 0.88 · n = 1409:00 UTC · ratio 0.80 · n = 1549h10:00 UTC · ratio 0.80 · n = 15911:00 UTC · ratio 0.82 · n = 15712:00 UTC · ratio 0.90 · n = 14612h13:00 UTC · ratio 0.91 · n = 15614:00 UTC · ratio 0.87 · n = 16715:00 UTC · ratio 0.78 · n = 16915h16:00 UTC · ratio 0.74 · n = 17117:00 UTC · ratio 0.80 · n = 16618:00 UTC · ratio 0.81 · n = 14318h19:00 UTC · ratio 0.83 · n = 16520:00 UTC · ratio 0.81 · n = 16121:00 UTC · ratio 0.78 · n = 16021h22:00 UTC · ratio 0.82 · n = 15223:00 UTC · ratio 0.81 · n = 169
hourly — median ratio by UTC hour of window open (amber above 1, green below).
0.690.861.041.210:00 UTC · ratio 0.99 · n = 470h1:00 UTC · ratio 0.85 · n = 462:00 UTC · ratio 0.78 · n = 413:00 UTC · ratio 0.75 · n = 413h4:00 UTC · ratio 0.79 · n = 465:00 UTC · ratio 0.84 · n = 456:00 UTC · ratio 0.86 · n = 376h7:00 UTC · ratio 0.81 · n = 458:00 UTC · ratio 0.89 · n = 429:00 UTC · ratio 0.87 · n = 489h10:00 UTC · ratio 0.80 · n = 4411:00 UTC · ratio 0.83 · n = 5312:00 UTC · ratio 0.91 · n = 4612h13:00 UTC · ratio 1.17 · n = 5614:00 UTC · ratio 0.91 · n = 3915:00 UTC · ratio 0.73 · n = 4515h16:00 UTC · ratio 0.77 · n = 4217:00 UTC · ratio 0.77 · n = 5118:00 UTC · ratio 0.84 · n = 4218h19:00 UTC · ratio 0.85 · n = 4320:00 UTC · ratio 0.85 · n = 4621:00 UTC · ratio 0.84 · n = 4521h22:00 UTC · ratio 0.79 · n = 3823:00 UTC · ratio 0.75 · n = 39

Questions

How many Solana windows feed these figures?

10,146 of 21,425 5-minute windows, 3,798 of 7,139 15-minute windows and 1,068 of 1,799 hourly windows — those whose mid-window price sat in the 15%–45% or 55%–85% band, over 75 nights. One minute before the close only 15%, 9% and 8% would remain: that reading is not published.

Are Solana levels (implied 40% against realized 48%) published?

No — the Solana spot is logged too coarsely for a level (5% of a half-window move). The ratios cancel the spot and stay exact; Solana's 0.82 (5-minute), 0.83 (15-minute) and 0.84 (hourly) are published.

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Paper results · not financial advice · 18+. Data analytics on Polymarket crypto markets.