Ethereum Up or Down — 15 minutes
Resolution: the Chainlink ETH/USD 60-second TWAP at the close against the TWAP at the open, ties going Up — the rule since Aug 7, 2026. The median Ethereum 15-minute window closed 9.8 bps from its price to beat; 6.5% closed within 1 bp.
What we measured
ETH's realized volatility at the open had a median of 34.8% a year — one standard deviation over 15 minutes is about 18.6 bps, against a median close-to-beat distance of 9.8 bps.
At T−60 s the favourite won 95.6% of 6,618 Ethereum 15-minute windows — the highest rate of the 4 15-minute markets (their average: 95.1%); Ethereum's 5-minute 91.6% and hourly 96.1%.
So the price sat on the losing side 4.4% of the time, 4.3 windows a night, and favourites at 90¢ or more still lost 43 of 5,632 (0.76%).
By price band: 50–60¢ won 57.6% of 245, 60–70¢ won 65.0% of 177, 70–80¢ won 79.4% of 223, 80–90¢ won 88.6% of 341, 90–100¢ won 99.2% of 5,632 (the 90¢+ favourite cost 99¢ on average).
Weighted across bands, outcomes beat prices by +0.8 points: underconfident pricing at T−60 s.
Brier at T−60 s: market 0.0324 (sharpest among 15-minute markets), Student-t model 0.0323, normal model 0.0336 — model ahead by 0.0001.
Up won 50.3% of Ethereum 15-minute windows; the roughest night was Aug 26, 2026, favourite beaten in 13.7% of 95, the calmest Oct 8, 2026 at 0.0%.
From mid-window to T−60 s the market's Brier score dropped from 0.1513 to 0.0324.
| favourite priced | windows | won | avg price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60¢ | 245 | 57.6% | 53.5¢ |
| 60–70¢ | 177 | 65.0% | 65.3¢ |
| 70–80¢ | 223 | 79.4% | 75.2¢ |
| 80–90¢ | 341 | 88.6% | 85.4¢ |
| 90–100¢ | 5,632 | 99.2% | 98.8¢ |
Paper results of our public rules (● = 95% CI clear of zero)
Paper results on Ethereum 15-minute windows: 81,091 paper trades, 13 rules plus 2 controls (random entry; favourite at T−30 s), 95% intervals as on /performance.
| rule | nights | n | win | avg price | total P&L $ | P&L/trade | 95% CI ¢/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDGE12 | 69 | 3809 | 41% | 33¢ | +309.88 | +8.1¢ | [+6.7 ; +9.6] |
| EDGE8 | 69 | 5555 | 43% | 38¢ | +295.58 | +5.3¢ | [+4.1 ; +6.5] |
| LEAD3 | 69 | 6419 | 48% | 43¢ | +266.42 | +4.2¢ | [+3.0 ; +5.3] |
| EDGE12_BUILT | 69 | 3511 | 39% | 32¢ | +257.25 | +7.3¢ | [+5.8 ; +8.8] |
| COMBO | 69 | 6400 | 46% | 43¢ | +246.56 | +3.9¢ | [+2.7 ; +5.0] |
| EDGE8_BUILT | 69 | 5306 | 41% | 37¢ | +233.91 | +4.4¢ | [+3.2 ; +5.6] |
| EDGE6 | 69 | 6265 | 45% | 41¢ | +222.74 | +3.6¢ | [+2.4 ; +4.7] |
| EDGE4_EARLY | 69 | 6407 | 48% | 45¢ | +194.33 | +3.0¢ | [+1.8 ; +4.2] |
| EDGE4 | 69 | 6571 | 47% | 44¢ | +193.80 | +2.9¢ | [+1.8 ; +4.1] |
| EDGE4_T | 69 | 6564 | 52% | 49¢ | +193.75 | +3.0¢ | [+1.8 ; +4.1] |
| IVRV | 69 | 5411 | 60% | 57¢ | +165.46 | +3.1¢ | [+1.8 ; +4.3] |
| EDGE2 | 69 | 6615 | 48% | 47¢ | +84.27 | +1.3¢ | [+0.1 ; +2.5] |
| EDGE4_LATE | 69 | 4811 | 31% | 30¢ | +32.91 | +0.7¢ | [−0.4 ; +1.8] |
| CTRL_FAV30 | 69 | 1182 | 94% | 94¢ | +0.66 | +0.1¢ | [−1.2 ; +1.3] |
| CTRL_RND | 69 | 6265 | 50% | 51¢ | −50.51 | −0.8¢ | [−1.8 ; +0.2] |
12 of 13 rules clear zero here; highest paper totals: EDGE12 +309.88 $ (3,809 trades, +8.14¢ each), EDGE8 +295.58 $ (5,555 trades, +5.32¢ each), LEAD3 +266.42 $ (6,419 trades, +4.15¢ each); CTRL_RND −0.81¢ [−1.78 ; +0.17], n = 6,265.
Last night
Oct 14, 2026: 96 Ethereum 15-minute windows graded, favourite beaten in 3 of 96, Brier 0.0135 (market) vs 0.0150 (model).
Full night of Oct 14, 2026 on /performance →Questions
How is the Ethereum Up or Down 15 minutes market resolved?
Chainlink ETH/USD TWAP over 60 seconds, close versus open; ties are Up.
What time do Ethereum 15-minute markets open and close?
96 a day, at :00, :15, :30 and :45 UTC.
What is the "price to beat" on Ethereum 15-minute markets?
The ETH/USD TWAP at the window's first second. Typical distance at the close: 9.8 bps (median).
Why does the Ethereum 15-minute price jump in the last minute?
The final 60 seconds feed the closing average, so each second fixes more of the result and prices run to 0¢ or 100¢; 294 ETH favourites still lost from T−60 s.
Where can I see live Ethereum 15-minute probabilities?
In the Mispria terminal, with Pro (free covers Bitcoin): model vs ETH market price, live.
Related markets
Data analytics on Polymarket crypto markets — not financial advice, not a solicitation to trade. 18+.