Ethereum Up or Down — hourly
Resolution: the Binance ETH/USDT 1-hour candle, close against open, ties going Up (unchanged on Aug 7, 2026).
What we measured
ETH's realized volatility at the open had a median of 35.6% a year — one standard deviation over 1 hour is about 38.0 bps.
At T−60 s the favourite won 96.1% of 1,655 Ethereum hourly windows — the highest rate of the 4 hourly markets (their average: 96.0%); Ethereum's 5-minute 91.6% and 15-minute 95.6%.
So the price sat on the losing side 3.9% of the time, 0.9 windows a night, and favourites at 90¢ or more still lost 11 of 1,467 (0.75%).
By price band: 50–60¢ won 53.7% of 41, 60–70¢ won 65.0% of 40, 70–80¢ won 81.6% of 49, 80–90¢ won 81.0% of 58, 90–100¢ won 99.3% of 1,467 (the 90¢+ favourite cost 99¢ on average).
Weighted across bands, outcomes beat prices by +0.3 points: underconfident pricing at T−60 s.
Brier at T−60 s: market 0.0277 (2 of 4 among hourly markets), Student-t model 0.0249, normal model 0.0255 — model ahead by 0.0028.
Up won 50.9% of Ethereum hourly windows; the roughest night was Aug 20, 2026, favourite beaten in 16.7% of 24, the calmest Oct 12, 2026 at 0.0%.
From mid-window to T−60 s the market's Brier score dropped from 0.1706 to 0.0277.
| favourite priced | windows | won | avg price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60¢ | 41 | 53.7% | 54.4¢ |
| 60–70¢ | 40 | 65.0% | 65.2¢ |
| 70–80¢ | 49 | 81.6% | 74.7¢ |
| 80–90¢ | 58 | 81.0% | 85.2¢ |
| 90–100¢ | 1,467 | 99.3% | 99.0¢ |
Paper results of our public rules (● = 95% CI clear of zero)
Paper results on Ethereum hourly windows: 20,090 paper trades, 13 rules plus 2 controls (random entry; favourite at T−30 s), 95% intervals as on /performance.
| rule | nights | n | win | avg price | total P&L $ | P&L/trade | 95% CI ¢/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDGE6 | 69 | 1531 | 45% | 40¢ | +76.89 | +5.0¢ | [+2.7 ; +7.3] |
| EDGE12_BUILT | 69 | 747 | 40% | 31¢ | +71.37 | +9.6¢ | [+6.4 ; +12.7] |
| EDGE12 | 69 | 799 | 40% | 32¢ | +70.26 | +8.8¢ | [+5.7 ; +11.9] |
| EDGE8 | 69 | 1332 | 41% | 36¢ | +57.56 | +4.3¢ | [+1.9 ; +6.7] |
| EDGE8_BUILT | 69 | 1296 | 40% | 36¢ | +56.23 | +4.3¢ | [+2.0 ; +6.7] |
| EDGE4 | 69 | 1634 | 48% | 45¢ | +43.10 | +2.6¢ | [+0.3 ; +5.0] |
| EDGE4_EARLY | 69 | 1455 | 48% | 46¢ | +31.33 | +2.2¢ | [−0.3 ; +4.6] |
| EDGE4_T | 69 | 1638 | 54% | 52¢ | +31.02 | +1.9¢ | [−0.5 ; +4.2] |
| LEAD3 | 69 | 1640 | 47% | 46¢ | +25.19 | +1.5¢ | [−0.8 ; +3.8] |
| COMBO | 69 | 1638 | 46% | 45¢ | +21.71 | +1.3¢ | [−1.0 ; +3.6] |
| IVRV | 69 | 1333 | 59% | 57¢ | +16.40 | +1.2¢ | [−1.4 ; +3.8] |
| EDGE2 | 69 | 1648 | 48% | 48¢ | +9.92 | +0.6¢ | [−1.8 ; +3.0] |
| EDGE4_LATE | 69 | 1292 | 31% | 31¢ | −0.75 | −0.1¢ | [−2.1 ; +2.0] |
| CTRL_FAV30 | 69 | 506 | 94% | 95¢ | −4.41 | −0.9¢ | [−2.7 ; +1.0] |
| CTRL_RND | 69 | 1601 | 50% | 52¢ | −20.09 | −1.3¢ | [−3.2 ; +0.7] |
6 of 13 rules clear zero here; highest paper totals: EDGE6 +76.89 $ (1,531 trades, +5.02¢ each), EDGE12_BUILT +71.37 $ (747 trades, +9.55¢ each), EDGE12 +70.26 $ (799 trades, +8.79¢ each); CTRL_RND −1.26¢ [−3.22 ; +0.71], n = 1,601.
Last night
Oct 14, 2026: 24 Ethereum hourly windows graded, favourite beaten in 1 of 24, Brier 0.0281 (market) vs 0.0355 (model).
Full night of Oct 14, 2026 on /performance →Questions
How is the Ethereum Up or Down hourly market resolved?
Binance ETH/USDT 1-hour candle, close versus open; ties are Up.
What time do Ethereum hourly markets open and close?
24 a day, on the hour (labelled in US Eastern time).
What is the "price to beat" on Ethereum hourly markets?
The ETH/USDT candle's open, printed at the top of the hour.
Why does the Ethereum hourly price jump in the last minute?
A close call turns on the candle's last trades; 64 ETH favourites lost from T−60 s.
Where can I see live Ethereum hourly probabilities?
In the Mispria terminal, with Pro (free covers Bitcoin): model vs ETH market price, live.
Related markets
Data analytics on Polymarket crypto markets — not financial advice, not a solicitation to trade. 18+.