Ethereum Up or Down — 5 minutes
Resolution: the Chainlink ETH/USD 60-second TWAP at the close against the TWAP at the open, ties going Up — the rule since Aug 7, 2026. The median Ethereum 5-minute window closed 5.7 bps from its price to beat; 11.3% closed within 1 bp.
What we measured
ETH's realized volatility at the open had a median of 34.2% a year — one standard deviation over 5 minutes is about 10.5 bps, against a median close-to-beat distance of 5.7 bps.
At T−60 s the favourite won 91.6% of 19,859 Ethereum 5-minute windows — the third-highest rate of the 4 5-minute markets (their average: 91.7%); Ethereum's 15-minute 95.6% and hourly 96.1%.
So the price sat on the losing side 8.4% of the time, 24.2 windows a night, and favourites at 90¢ or more still lost 261 of 14,597 (1.79%).
By price band: 50–60¢ won 55.7% of 1,175, 60–70¢ won 66.2% of 1,056, 70–80¢ won 77.0% of 1,262, 80–90¢ won 86.3% of 1,769, 90–100¢ won 98.2% of 14,597 (the 90¢+ favourite cost 98¢ on average).
Weighted across bands, outcomes beat prices by +0.6 points: underconfident pricing at T−60 s.
Brier at T−60 s: market 0.0607 (3 of 4 among 5-minute markets), Student-t model 0.0614, normal model 0.0632 — market ahead by 0.0008.
Up won 49.9% of Ethereum 5-minute windows; the roughest night was Aug 31, 2026, favourite beaten in 19.1% of 288, the calmest Oct 8, 2026 at 4.2%.
From mid-window to T−60 s the market's Brier score dropped from 0.1440 to 0.0607.
| favourite priced | windows | won | avg price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60¢ | 1,175 | 55.7% | 53.9¢ |
| 60–70¢ | 1,056 | 66.2% | 64.9¢ |
| 70–80¢ | 1,262 | 77.0% | 75.2¢ |
| 80–90¢ | 1,769 | 86.3% | 85.5¢ |
| 90–100¢ | 14,597 | 98.2% | 97.9¢ |
Paper results of our public rules (● = 95% CI clear of zero)
Paper results on Ethereum 5-minute windows: 242,485 paper trades, 13 rules plus 2 controls (random entry; favourite at T−30 s), 95% intervals as on /performance.
| rule | nights | n | win | avg price | total P&L $ | P&L/trade | 95% CI ¢/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDGE12 | 69 | 13014 | 42% | 34¢ | +1039.48 | +8.0¢ | [+7.2 ; +8.8] |
| LEAD3 | 69 | 16980 | 48% | 42¢ | +981.94 | +5.8¢ | [+5.1 ; +6.5] |
| EDGE12_BUILT | 69 | 11767 | 40% | 33¢ | +857.90 | +7.3¢ | [+6.5 ; +8.1] |
| EDGE8 | 69 | 17428 | 44% | 39¢ | +810.68 | +4.7¢ | [+4.0 ; +5.3] |
| COMBO | 69 | 18383 | 46% | 42¢ | +755.96 | +4.1¢ | [+3.4 ; +4.8] |
| EDGE8_BUILT | 69 | 16314 | 42% | 38¢ | +707.32 | +4.3¢ | [+3.6 ; +5.0] |
| EDGE6 | 69 | 18998 | 45% | 42¢ | +587.33 | +3.1¢ | [+2.4 ; +3.8] |
| EDGE4_T | 69 | 19694 | 53% | 51¢ | +461.49 | +2.3¢ | [+1.7 ; +3.0] |
| IVRV | 69 | 15579 | 62% | 59¢ | +439.11 | +2.8¢ | [+2.1 ; +3.6] |
| EDGE4 | 69 | 19722 | 46% | 44¢ | +402.29 | +2.0¢ | [+1.4 ; +2.7] |
| EDGE4_EARLY | 69 | 19388 | 46% | 44¢ | +375.12 | +1.9¢ | [+1.3 ; +2.6] |
| EDGE2 | 69 | 19843 | 47% | 46¢ | +135.61 | +0.7¢ | [+0.0 ; +1.4] |
| EDGE4_LATE | 69 | 12955 | 32% | 32¢ | +80.91 | +0.6¢ | [−0.0 ; +1.3] |
| CTRL_FAV30 | 69 | 4707 | 92% | 93¢ | −31.54 | −0.7¢ | [−1.3 ; −0.0] |
| CTRL_RND | 69 | 17713 | 50% | 51¢ | −158.18 | −0.9¢ | [−1.5 ; −0.3] |
12 of 13 rules clear zero here; highest paper totals: EDGE12 +1039.48 $ (13,014 trades, +7.99¢ each), LEAD3 +981.94 $ (16,980 trades, +5.78¢ each), EDGE12_BUILT +857.90 $ (11,767 trades, +7.29¢ each); CTRL_RND −0.89¢ [−1.47 ; −0.32], n = 17,713.
Last night
Oct 14, 2026: 289 Ethereum 5-minute windows graded, favourite beaten in 24 of 288, Brier 0.0660 (market) vs 0.0677 (model).
Full night of Oct 14, 2026 on /performance →Questions
How is the Ethereum Up or Down 5 minutes market resolved?
Chainlink ETH/USD TWAP over 60 seconds, close versus open; ties are Up.
What time do Ethereum 5-minute markets open and close?
288 a day, every 5 minutes on round UTC times.
What is the "price to beat" on Ethereum 5-minute markets?
The ETH/USD TWAP at the window's first second. Typical distance at the close: 5.7 bps (median).
Why does the Ethereum 5-minute price jump in the last minute?
The final 60 seconds feed the closing average, so each second fixes more of the result and prices run to 0¢ or 100¢; 1,671 ETH favourites still lost from T−60 s.
Where can I see live Ethereum 5-minute probabilities?
In the Mispria terminal, with Pro (free covers Bitcoin): model vs ETH market price, live.
Related markets
Data analytics on Polymarket crypto markets — not financial advice, not a solicitation to trade. 18+.