Solana Up or Down — hourly
Resolution: the Binance SOL/USDT 1-hour candle, close against open, ties going Up (unchanged on Aug 7, 2026).
What we measured
SOL's realized volatility at the open had a median of 46.4% a year — one standard deviation over 1 hour is about 49.5 bps.
At T−60 s the favourite won 95.7% of 1,654 Solana hourly windows — the lowest rate of the 4 hourly markets (their average: 96.0%); Solana's 5-minute 91.6% and 15-minute 95.1%.
So the price sat on the losing side 4.3% of the time, 1.0 windows a night, and favourites at 90¢ or more still lost 15 of 1,425 (1.05%).
By price band: 50–60¢ won 54.7% of 64, 60–70¢ won 66.7% of 39, 70–80¢ won 79.5% of 44, 80–90¢ won 93.9% of 82, 90–100¢ won 98.9% of 1,425 (the 90¢+ favourite cost 99¢ on average).
Weighted across bands, outcomes beat prices by +0.8 points: underconfident pricing at T−60 s.
Brier at T−60 s: market 0.0307 (least sharp among hourly markets), Student-t model 0.0282, normal model 0.0289 — model ahead by 0.0025.
Up won 50.2% of Solana hourly windows; the roughest night was Sep 1, 2026, favourite beaten in 20.8% of 24, the calmest Oct 12, 2026 at 0.0%.
From mid-window to T−60 s the market's Brier score dropped from 0.1625 to 0.0307.
| favourite priced | windows | won | avg price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50–60¢ | 64 | 54.7% | 53.9¢ |
| 60–70¢ | 39 | 66.7% | 64.8¢ |
| 70–80¢ | 44 | 79.5% | 75.3¢ |
| 80–90¢ | 82 | 93.9% | 85.4¢ |
| 90–100¢ | 1,425 | 98.9% | 98.7¢ |
Paper results of our public rules (● = 95% CI clear of zero)
Paper results on Solana hourly windows: 18,474 paper trades, 13 rules plus 2 controls (random entry; favourite at T−30 s), 95% intervals as on /performance.
| rule | nights | n | win | avg price | total P&L $ | P&L/trade | 95% CI ¢/trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDGE12 | 69 | 592 | 41% | 31¢ | +58.75 | +9.9¢ | [+6.4 ; +13.5] |
| COMBO | 69 | 1523 | 46% | 42¢ | +54.78 | +3.6¢ | [+1.3 ; +5.9] |
| EDGE8_BUILT | 69 | 1080 | 38% | 33¢ | +51.43 | +4.8¢ | [+2.2 ; +7.4] |
| EDGE12_BUILT | 69 | 535 | 40% | 31¢ | +49.57 | +9.3¢ | [+5.5 ; +13.0] |
| EDGE8 | 69 | 1124 | 38% | 34¢ | +47.69 | +4.2¢ | [+1.7 ; +6.8] |
| LEAD3 | 69 | 1552 | 46% | 43¢ | +46.00 | +3.0¢ | [+0.7 ; +5.2] |
| EDGE4 | 69 | 1605 | 46% | 44¢ | +44.06 | +2.7¢ | [+0.4 ; +5.0] |
| EDGE6 | 69 | 1431 | 42% | 39¢ | +43.67 | +3.1¢ | [+0.7 ; +5.4] |
| EDGE4_EARLY | 69 | 1358 | 48% | 45¢ | +34.53 | +2.5¢ | [+0.0 ; +5.1] |
| EDGE4_T | 69 | 1601 | 55% | 53¢ | +30.79 | +1.9¢ | [−0.4 ; +4.3] |
| IVRV | 69 | 1185 | 63% | 62¢ | +16.96 | +1.4¢ | [−1.2 ; +4.1] |
| EDGE2 | 69 | 1640 | 48% | 47¢ | +13.04 | +0.8¢ | [−1.6 ; +3.1] |
| EDGE4_LATE | 69 | 1131 | 31% | 29¢ | +11.65 | +1.0¢ | [−1.3 ; +3.4] |
| CTRL_FAV30 | 69 | 524 | 94% | 97¢ | −12.84 | −2.4¢ | [−4.4 ; −0.5] |
| CTRL_RND | 69 | 1593 | 52% | 54¢ | −21.02 | −1.3¢ | [−3.3 ; +0.6] |
9 of 13 rules clear zero here; highest paper totals: EDGE12 +58.75 $ (592 trades, +9.92¢ each), COMBO +54.78 $ (1,523 trades, +3.60¢ each), EDGE8_BUILT +51.43 $ (1,080 trades, +4.76¢ each); CTRL_RND −1.32¢ [−3.28 ; +0.64], n = 1,593.
Last night
Oct 14, 2026: 24 Solana hourly windows graded, favourite beaten in 1 of 24, Brier 0.0259 (market) vs 0.0269 (model).
Full night of Oct 14, 2026 on /performance →Questions
How is the Solana Up or Down hourly market resolved?
Binance SOL/USDT 1-hour candle, close versus open; ties are Up.
What time do Solana hourly markets open and close?
24 a day, on the hour (labelled in US Eastern time).
What is the "price to beat" on Solana hourly markets?
The SOL/USDT candle's open, printed at the top of the hour.
Why does the Solana hourly price jump in the last minute?
A close call turns on the candle's last trades; 71 SOL favourites lost from T−60 s.
Where can I see live Solana hourly probabilities?
In the Mispria terminal, with Pro (free covers Bitcoin): model vs SOL market price, live.
Related markets
Data analytics on Polymarket crypto markets — not financial advice, not a solicitation to trade. 18+.